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Condiments - US - December 2017

"Condiments and dressings are substantial and diverse categories with extremely high penetration driven by consumer loyalty to brands and product types, along with healthy reputations for adaptability, affordability, and variety. As these mature categories struggle to grow sales, getting back to growth will take effort from brands to find even more ways for consumers to enjoy or experiment with condiments and dressings. Future growth opportunities may exist for brands that communicate alternative product uses on social media or websites, and those that innovate in complex flavor combinations, convenient packaging, and fresher and healthier varieties."

- Michael Averbook, Food and Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Condiments stalled by decline in mustard and mayonnaise
  • Dressings decline driven by struggling shelf-stable
  • Category overlap an issue and an opportunity
  • Traditional condiments, dressings are pantry staples

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Condiments stalled by decline in mustard and mayonnaise
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of condiments, at current prices, 2011-22
          • Dressings decline driven by struggling shelf-stable
            • Figure 2: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dressings, at current prices, 2011-22
          • Category overlap an issue and an opportunity
            • Figure 3: Total US retail sales percent change of pasta sauce, barbecue sauce, and other sauces and gravy, 2015-17*
          • Traditional condiments, dressings are pantry staples
            • Figure 4: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, October 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Communicate categories’ strengths, crossover potential, and quality
              • Figure 5: Condiment and dressing attitudes, October 2017
            • Interest in exciting flavor combinations
              • Figure 6: Condiment and dressing innovation, flavors, October 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Condiment growth stifled by high penetration, competitive categories
                • Dressings sluggish due to shelf-stable dressings
                  • Category blurring creates competitive pressure
                    • Growing number of consumers enjoy cooking
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Sales of condiments are stagnant
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of condiments, at current prices, 2011-22
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of condiments, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Dressing sales drop
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of salad dressings, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dressings, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Pickles, olives, and relish is largest segment
                        • Figure 11: Total US market share of condiments and dressings, by segment, 2017
                      • Traditional condiments struggle
                        • Non-sauce condiments experience moderate growth
                          • Hot sauces spur other condiments growth
                            • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of condiments, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Refrigerated dressing growth can’t make up for shelf-stable decline
                            • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable and refrigerated salad dressings, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                          • Supermarkets dominate sales of condiments and dressings
                            • Figure 14: Total US market share of condiments and dressings, by channel, at current prices, 2017
                        • Market Perspective

                          • Competition from other sauces, marinades, and dips
                            • Figure 15: Total US retail sales percent change of pasta sauce, barbecue sauce, and other sauces and gravy, 2015-17*
                          • Sales of international foods grow in the US
                            • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of international foods, at current prices, 2014-16
                          • Menu inspiration
                            • Figure 17: Condiment ingredients, by menu incidence change, Q3 2015-Q3 2017
                            • Figure 18: Condiment flavor of ingredients, by ketchup, mustard, mayonnaise, and hot sauce, by menu incidence change, Q3 2015-Q3 2017
                        • Market Factors

                          • Growing passion for cooking
                            • Figure 19: Share and approximate number* of Cooking Enthusiasts, 2015-17
                          • Americans are heavy snackers
                            • Figure 20: Snacking frequency, March 2017
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Kraft Heinz domination
                            • Unilever joins the battle
                              • Interest in fresh benefits chilled condiments and dressings
                                • Spicy sauces heat up sales
                                  • Big brands in traditional segments weaken
                                    • Sweet, heat, and sour
                                    • Company and Brand Sales of Condiments and Dressings

                                      • Kraft Heinz leads category with wide product range
                                        • Figure 21: MULO market share of ketchup, mayonnaise, mustard, other condiments, dressing, and pickles, olives, and relish, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Sep 10, 2017
                                        • Figure 22: MULO sales of condiments and dressings, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • What’s Working?

                                      • McCormick, Unilever enter the condiment war
                                        • Figure 23: MULO sales of ketchup and mustard, by French’s and Heinz, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Refrigerated dressing, pickles/relish outperform shelf-stable varieties
                                        • Figure 24: MULO sales percent change of refrigerated relish/pickles, pickles/relish/olives, refrigerated salad dressings, and shelf-stable salad dressings, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Sales of spicy sauces on fire
                                        • Figure 25: MULO sales of hot/Cajun sauce and horseradish sauce, by Frank’s RedHot, McIlhenny Company, Cholula, and Inglehoffer, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                        • Figure 26: Launches of condiments and dressings, by flavor components, spice/spicy/piquant and hot, 2015-17*
                                      • Feel good flavorings
                                        • Figure 27: Launches of condiments and dressings, by claims, no additives/preservatives, GMO-free, and organic, 2015-17*
                                        • Figure 28: TV Advertisement – “Our Mayonnaise is Now Made With 100% Cage-Free Eggs!” – Hellmann’s
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Mainstream mayonnaise struggles
                                        • Figure 29: TV Advertisement – “Costume Party” – Kraft Mayo
                                        • Figure 30: MULO sales of mayonnaise, by declining brands, Heinz, Kraft, Best Foods, and Hellmann’s, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Mustard in a sales slump
                                        • Figure 31: MULO sales of mustard, by declining brands, Guldens, French’s, and Grey Poupon, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Downturn for dressing
                                        • Figure 32: MULO sales of dressing, by declining brands, Kraft, Wishbone, and Marzetti, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Store brands struggle in many segments
                                        • Figure 33: MULO sales of mayonnaise, salad dressing, and pickles, olives and relish, by private label brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Sweet heat, sour power
                                        • Figure 34: Launches of condiments and dressings, by flavor component groups, sweet and sour, 2015-17*
                                      • Peculiar peppers
                                        • Craveable Korean
                                          • Portable portions
                                            • Figure 35: Launches of condiments and dressings, by convenience claims, ease of use and on-the-go, 2015-17*
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • Growth potential challenged by nearly universal participation
                                            • Flavor an imperative factor for purchase
                                              • Stellar reputation for versatility, affordability
                                                • Category definition blurry to consumers
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Purchase

                                                  • Price, variety, and versatility drive high penetration
                                                    • Figure 36: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, October 2017
                                                    • Figure 37: Repertoire of condiment and dressing purchase, Any store, October 2017
                                                  • Supermarkets are primary purchase location
                                                    • Figure 38: Condiment and dressing purchase, all store types, October 2017
                                                  • Women prefer creamy products, men flavored varieties
                                                    • Figure 39: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, by gender, October 2017
                                                  • Young adults purchase across wide variety of products, stores
                                                    • Figure 40: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, by age, October 2017
                                                    • Figure 41: Condiment and dressing purchase, any condiment or dressing, all stores types, by age, October 2017
                                                  • Larger households seek variety
                                                    • Figure 42: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, by parental status, October 2017
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Behavior

                                                  • Condiments and dressings resourceful for pepping up food
                                                    • Figure 43: Condiment and dressing behavior, October 2017
                                                  • Flavored condiment buyers more active in the category
                                                    • Figure 44: Condiment and dressing purchase, any store, by condiment and dressing behavior, October 2017
                                                  • Women value familiarity, men look for variety
                                                    • Figure 45: Condiment and dressing behavior, by gender, October 2017
                                                  • Older consumers are brand loyal, younger consumers experiment
                                                    • Figure 46: Condiment and dressing behavior, by age, October 2017
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Uses

                                                  • Category’s diversity leads to wide range of uses
                                                    • Figure 47: Correspondence analysis – Condiment and dressing uses, October 2017
                                                    • Figure 48: Condiment and dressing uses, October 2017
                                                  • Young adults appreciate range of hot sauce uses
                                                    • Figure 49: Condiment and dressing uses, any condiment or dressing, by age, October 2017
                                                  • Condiments and dressings address many needs for parents
                                                    • Figure 50: Condiment and dressing uses, any condiment or dressing, by parental status, October 2017
                                                  • Spiciness, versatility of hot sauce appeals to Hispanic, Black consumers
                                                    • Figure 51: Condiment and dressing uses, hot sauce, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Attributes

                                                  • Flavor far and away most critical
                                                    • Figure 52: Condiment and dressing attributes, October 2017
                                                  • Life stage plays role in types of attributes looked for
                                                    • Figure 53: Condiment and dressing attributes, by age, October 2017
                                                  • Black consumers place priority on brand, Asians on health
                                                    • Figure 54: Condiment and dressing attributes, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Attitudes

                                                  • Condiments, dressings helpful in variety of ways to everyone
                                                    • Figure 55: Condiment and dressing attitudes, October 2017
                                                  • Women enjoy adaptability, young adults interested in unique options
                                                    • Figure 56: Condiment and dressing attitudes, by gender and age, October 2017
                                                  • Affordability, diversity shines in categories
                                                    • Figure 57: Condiment and dressing attitudes, by number of children under 18 in household, October 2017
                                                  • Hispanics enjoy flavoring foods with inexpensive condiments, dressings
                                                    • Figure 58: Condiment and dressing attitudes, by Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                • Condiment and Dressing Innovation

                                                  • Interest in options that further increase variety and versatility
                                                    • Figure 59: Condiment and dressing Innovation, October 2017
                                                  • Variety of flexible, flavored, and fresh offerings an optimal assortment
                                                    • Figure 60: TURF analysis – Condiment and dressing innovation, October 2017
                                                  • Women interested in flexible products, men in diverse flavors
                                                    • Figure 61: Condiment and dressing Innovation, by gender, October 2017
                                                  • Young consumers, parents, Hispanics look for wide range of innovation
                                                    • Figure 62: Condiment and dressing Innovation, by age, parental status, and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                              • Terms
                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                  • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of condiments, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of condiments, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 65: Total US retail sales of condiments, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of mayonnaise, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of mayonnaise, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of mustard, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of mustard, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of ketchup, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of ketchup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of pickles, olives, relish, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of pickles, olives, relish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of other condiments, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of other condiments, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 76: Total US retail sales of condiments, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 77: Total US retail sales of condiments, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 78: US supermarket sales of condiments, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 79: US sales of condiments through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of dressings, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 81: Total US retail sales of dressings, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 82: Total US retail sales of dressings, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 83: US supermarket sales of dressings, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 84: US sales of dressings through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                  • Figure 85: MULO sales of mayonnaise, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 86: MULO sales of mustard, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 87: MULO sales of ketchup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 88: MULO sales of pickles, olives and relish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 89: MULO sales of other sauces*, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 90: MULO sales of salad dressings, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                              Condiments - US - December 2017

                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)