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Consumers and the Economic Outlook - China - March 2014

“Saving remains an important financial priority for consumers and the idea of spending the money to enjoy life now without thinking about tomorrow is still uncomfortable for many. This means that while consumers are confident about making more purchases, they are still spending within what they can afford and according to their priorities. It is therefore important for businesses to understand where consumers are more likely to allocate their spare money and the differences in their attitudes towards managing their finances.

Although China’s economic growth has slowed down to 7.7% in both 2012 and 2013, consumers are far more concerned about things that have a more immediate and direct impact on their quality of life, such as income and cost of living. After all, disposable income is still growing at above 10% and CPI growth has eased to a much lower level compared to 2011. These positive changes will continue to drive consumer confidence in spending, as reflected by a strong year-on-year growth of 13.3% during the 2014 Chinese New Year.”

Ruyi Xu, Head of Research, China

In this report, we answer the key questions:

  • What do consumers think about their current financial situation and how confident are they about their financial status over the next 12 months?
  • What are the most important factors impacting consumers’ willingness to spend?
  • What are the financial priorities for consumers over the next 12 months?
  • How are consumers going to allocate their spare money and what discretionary spending do they prioritise first?
  • Is there any change to the way consumers think about saving, spending and managing their financial wellbeing under the current economic environment?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Figure 1: Definition of different generations in this report, December 2013
      • Report structure
        • Methodology
          • Figure 2: Interviewing cities for this research, China
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • Economic conditions and consumer finances
              • China’s economic growth slows down for more steadier growth
                • Figure 3: GDP growth rate, China 2003-13
              • Unemployment and CPI are under control…
                • Figure 4: Consumer Price Index, China Jan 2011-Jan 2014
              • … but things are not really easy for young adults
                • Consumer spending remains strong
                  • While income continues to grow, saving is still the number-one priority
                    • Figure 5: Changes in annual saving and income level, China 2003-13
                  • The gap between urban and rural consumers is narrowing
                    • Consumers’ current financial status
                      • Nearly two-thirds of consumers have money left for savings or luxuries
                        • Figure 6: Current financial situation, December 2013
                      • Young adults aged under 25 are more likely to just get by
                        • Home owners without mortgage are the most well off
                          • Confidence about improving future financial status
                            • Three quarters feel very confident or somewhat confident
                              • 20-34-year-olds are overall more confident than 35s and over
                                • Figure 7: Confidence in improving financial situation over next 12 months, December 2013
                              • Confidence is higher among potential home buyers
                                • Factors impacting consumers’ willingness to spend
                                  • Consumers are more concerned about immediate things with a direct impact on their lives
                                    • Figure 8: Factors affecting willingness to spend, December 2013
                                  • Different focus for high and low earners
                                    • Lifestage brings changes
                                      • Discretionary spending priorities for consumers
                                        • Discretionary spending growth is likely to be sustained…
                                          • Figure 9: Discretionary spending priorities, December 2013
                                        • … but the trend is shifting towards experiential luxury
                                          • Saving remains important, especially for adults aged 20-34 and those not married
                                            • Investing in children’s education comes first for parents
                                              • Opportunities for businesses to look at consumer gift spending
                                                • Consumers’ financial priorities over the next 12 months
                                                  • Saving for the future remains the most important priority
                                                    • Figure 10: Financial priorities, December 2013
                                                  • Females in their 40s are most likely to think about indulgence spending
                                                    • Consumer attitudes towards financial management and financial wellbeing
                                                      • A strong consensus that increasing income is more important than controlling spending
                                                        • Sentiment for spending to enjoy life hindered by uncertainty about future
                                                          • Younger consumers are finding it difficult to land on their feet
                                                            • Giving up big purchases for a less pressured life means more by words than actions
                                                              • Key issue – How does consumer confidence affect spending?
                                                                • Impact on different market sectors
                                                                  • Figure 11: Differences in spending increase by consumer confidence, December 2013
                                                                • Change of confidence has a bigger impact on spending increase than spending cuts
                                                                  • Figure 12: Impact of consumer confidence on spending increases and spending cuts, December 2013
                                                                • Where would consumers spend more to treat themselves?
                                                                  • Figure 13: Matrix of market sectors with different spending increase reasons, February 2013
                                                                • Key issue – What are the key consumer segments to be aware of?
                                                                  • Figure 14: Target groups, December 2013
                                                                • Comfortable
                                                                  • Anxious
                                                                    • Settlers
                                                                      • Figure 15: Confidence in improving financial situation over next 12 months, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                    • Aspirers
                                                                      • Key issue – How does consumer sentiment vary by city?
                                                                        • Figure 16: Consumer confidence about improving financial situation over the next 12 months, by tier-one cities, December 2013
                                                                        • Figure 17: Current financial status and confidence about future financial situation, by city, December 2013
                                                                      • Key issue – Are younger adults thinking differently about their financial wellbeing?
                                                                        • What we think
                                                                        • Economic Conditions and Consumer Finances

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • China’s economy is set for steadier growth
                                                                                • Figure 18: GDP growth rate, China 2003-13
                                                                              • Unemployment remains flat
                                                                                • Figure 19: Urban unemployment rate, China 2003-13
                                                                              • The job market becomes increasingly competitive for graduates
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Number of graduating students, China 2003-14
                                                                                • Consumer Price Index eased to about one-third of its peak in 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Consumer Price Index, China, Jan 2011-Jan 2014
                                                                                  • Property prices continue to climb, putting pressure on potential home buyers
                                                                                    • Consumer spending shows a buoyant outlook for 2014
                                                                                        • Figure 22: National retail and catering sales during Chinese New Year, China 2009-14
                                                                                      • Income growth fuels consumption, but saving remains a priority
                                                                                          • Figure 23: Changes in annual saving and income level, China 2003-13
                                                                                        • The gap between urban and rural consumers is narrowing
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Consumer spending per capita, rural vs. urban China, 2003-12
                                                                                        • The Consumer – Current Financial Status

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Current financial situation, December 2013
                                                                                            • About two thirds have money left for savings or luxury spending
                                                                                                • Figure 26: Current financial situation, China, UK and US, 2013
                                                                                              • Married couples have healthier finance
                                                                                                • Figure 27: Current financial situation, by marital status, December 2013
                                                                                              • Predictably, high earners and home owners have deeper pockets
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Current financial situation, by income and home ownership, December 2013
                                                                                              • The Consumer – Confidence in Improving Future Finances

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Confidence in improving financial situation over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                  • Three in four consumers feel very confident or somewhat confident
                                                                                                    • The 85s generation shows the strongest confidence about future
                                                                                                      • Directionally 35-49-year-olds are more conservative
                                                                                                        • Households with children feel more confident
                                                                                                          • Potential home buyers are more optimistic than those on mortgage
                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Confidence in improving financial situation over next 12 months, by home ownership, December 2013
                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Factors Impacting the Willingness to Spend

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Factors affecting willingness to spend, December 2013
                                                                                                              • Income growth is the single most important driver
                                                                                                                • High and low income groups impacted by different things
                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Impact of financial investments, cost of living and employment on willingness to spend, by household income, December 2013
                                                                                                                  • Lifestage plays a role
                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Impact of economy, social welfare and big item spending on willingness to spend, by age demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Discretionary Spending Priorities

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Discretionary spending priorities, December 2013
                                                                                                                      • Discretionary spending is likely to sustain its growth…
                                                                                                                        • Holiday becomes a widely popular spending
                                                                                                                          • More focus on leisure experiences than possessing luxuries
                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Percentage of consumers planning to increase spending on selected items over the next 12 months, by household income, December 2013
                                                                                                                            • Kid’s education comes first for parents
                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Discretionary spending on ‘education for myself/my kid(s)’, by age of children and city tier, December 2013
                                                                                                                              • For those young without children, saving is the number one priority
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Percentage of consumers planning to increase savings and financial investments over the next 12 months, by age, December 2013
                                                                                                                                • The 90s generation is most willing to spend more on electronic devices
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Planned discretionary spending on ‘electronic/digital devices’, by age, December 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Gifting is still an important spending occasion for consumers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Planned discretionary spending on ‘gifting for others on special occasions’, by age, December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: WeChat’s red pocket scheme on its app, China 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Property owners are more likely to spend on cars
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Planned discretionary spending on ‘buying a new car/upgrading the car’, by property ownership, December 2013
                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Financial Priorities in the Next 12 Months

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Financial priorities, December 2013
                                                                                                                                        • Saving remains the top financial priority for all
                                                                                                                                          • Different saving focuses across the age groups
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Top three savings priorities, by age, December 2013
                                                                                                                                            • Younger men bear more pressures to save
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Importance of big ticket spending among consumers aged in their 20s, by gender, December 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Who is prioritising indulgence spending?
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Importance of spending on self-indulgence, by property ownership and gender/age group, December 2013
                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Financial Management and Financial Wellbeing

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Attitudes towards managing financial management and financial wellbeing, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • More focus on increasing income than controlling spending
                                                                                                                                                    • Sentiment towards spending is hindered by uncertainty about the future
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Agreement with statement “I worry about my financial situation when thinking about the future”, by current financial status, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Agreement with statements relating to financial pressure and difficulty in saving, by household income and property ownership, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                      • Nearly half of young adults find it difficult to stand on their own feet
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Agreement with statement “It is difficult to cover my total spending without financial support from others”, by age, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Are people giving up on properties and cars for a less pressured life?
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Agreement with statement “It is worth giving up some big ticket purchases for a less pressured life”, by household income and property ownership, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Only 3 in 10 think it’s better to spend tomorrow’s money
                                                                                                                                                          • Key Issue – How Does Consumer Confidence Affect Spending?

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Sectors where spending is more sensitive to changes in confidence
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Differences in spending increase by consumer confidence, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • More dramatic shifts in spending increase than in spending cut
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Impact of consumer confidence on spending increases and spending cuts, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Spending more due to price increase or personal treat?
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Matrix of market sectors with different spending increase reasons, February 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • New experiences and social elements are important when consumers spend to treat themselves
                                                                                                                                                                    • Making consumers feel they are getting a better deal
                                                                                                                                                                      • What does it mean?
                                                                                                                                                                      • Key Issue – What are the Key Consumer Segments to be Aware of?

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Mapping out the different consumer clusters
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                          • Comfortable: both the power and willingness to spend
                                                                                                                                                                            • Spending, saving and investing are equally important
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Current financial situation, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Impact of financial investments on willingness to spend, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                            • Anxious: Lacking the confidence to improve
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Confidence in improving financial situation over next 12 months, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                              • Helping them deal with uncertainty
                                                                                                                                                                                • Settlers: clear goals and priorities
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Spending confidence is more subject to job security and the cost of living
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Impact of cost of living and employment on willingness to spend, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Saving is the focus, discretionary spending beyond priorities is unlikely
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Percentage of consumers planning to increase savings and spending on education over the next 12 months, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Aspirers: The Xiao Kang (‘moderately well-off’) who like to spend to enjoy life
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Impact of property ownership and price on willingness to spend, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Better to enjoy the money now
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Attitudes towards financial concerns and discretionary spending, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • More spending-driven financial priorities
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Selected financial priorities, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The younger, up-and-coming “middle class”
                                                                                                                                                                                      • What does it mean?
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key Issue – How does Consumer Sentiment Vary by City?

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tier-one cities: Things are not all the same
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer confidence in Shanghai significantly lower than other tier-one cities
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Consumer confidence about improving financial situation over the next 12 months, by tier-one cities, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Chengdu consumers feel least financially pressured
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Consumer attitudes towards financial pressure, by tier-one cities, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: CAGR of GDP, employee salary and retail spending, by tier-one cities, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Attitudes towards managing financial wellbeing, by tier-one cities, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Are tier-two/three consumers more optimistic?
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Current financial status and confidence over next 12 months, by city tiers, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Current financial status and confidence about future financials, by city, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Fast income growth and lower pressure of living drives confidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Income growth and measure of pressure of property prices, by city, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                • … but converting confidence into spending also needs a change in attitudes
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Spending allocation on savings, investment and education, by city tiers, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Attitudes towards spending on self-indulgence and spending vs. saving, by city tiers, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                • What does it mean?
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key Issue – Are Younger Adults Thinking Differently about their Financial Wellbeing?

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The 90s, 85s and 80s: generations of the little emperors
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The 60s and 70s: Life from coupon days to a closer feeling of indulgence
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Busting the myths about the younger generations
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Younger generations are not as careless as people tend to think
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Agreement with statement “it is better to enjoy the money you have now (eg having no money left at the end of the month, using credit card) than put it away into savings”, by age generation, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Younger generations also believe today’s frugality is important for ensuring a better future
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Agreement with statement “it is worth sacrificing current quality of life (eg cutting down grocery spending, not buying luxury goods) to ensure a wealthier future”, by age generation, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Selected consumer shopping behaviour, by age, February 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Fulfilling social needs is a priority in their discretionary spending, especially for generation 90s
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Percentage of consumers planning to increase spending on selected discretionary items over the next 12 months, by age generation, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What does it mean?
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Analysis of Consumer Confidence and Discretionary Spending

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Impact of consumer confidence on spending increase and spending cut, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Reasons for Consumers to Spend More

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Reasons for spending more, February 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Current Financial Situation

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Current financial situation, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Current financial situation, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Confidence Over Next 12 Months

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Confidence over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Confidence over next 12 months, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Factors Impacting the Willingness to Spend

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Factors affecting willingness to spend, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Most popular factors affecting willingness to spend, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Next most popular factors affecting willingness to spend, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Other factors affecting willingness to spend, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Factors affecting willingness to spend, by confidence over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Discretionary Spending Priorities

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Spending allocation, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Spending allocation – Savings, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Spending allocation – Financial products/investment, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Spending allocation – Holidays, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Spending allocation – Education for myself or my kid(s), by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Spending allocation – Housewares/household appliances, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Spending allocation – Electronic/digital devices, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Spending allocation – Buying a new car/upgrading the car, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Spending allocation – Going out for an expensive meal, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Spending allocation – Luxury products, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Spending allocation – Out-of-home entertainment activities, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Spending allocation – Beauty treatment/personal care, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Spending allocation – Exercise/sports, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Spending allocation – Gifting for others on special occasions, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Spending allocation, by confidence over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Financial Priorities in the Next 12 Months

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Financial priorities, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Financial priorities – Saving for a rainy days/emergencies, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Financial priorities – Saving for large items, excluding for property, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Financial priorities – Saving for the long term, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Financial priorities – Saving for my own or a family member’s education, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Financial priorities – Making sure i don’t fall behind on bills and other financial commitments, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Financial priorities – Paying off my mortgage/saving for buying property, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Financial priorities – Paying off credit card debt in time, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Financial priorities – Spending money on self-indulgence, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Financial priorities, by confidence over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Attitudes towards Financial Management and Financial Wellbeing

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 112: Attitudes towards financial management and financial wellbeing, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Agreement with the statement ‘I think the change of china economy will have an impact on my life’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 114: Agreement with the statement ‘It is better to enjoy the money you have now than put it away into savings’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 115: Agreement with the statement ‘It is difficult to control my spending within my affordability’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 116: Agreement with the statement ‘I worry about my financial situation when thinking about the future’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 117: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s worth spending on self-indulgence’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 118: Agreement with the statement ‘It is difficult to cover my total spending without financial support from others’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 119: Agreement with the statement ‘China’s current economy makes me feel under big financial pressure’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 120: Agreement with the statement ‘Higher living costs have made it more difficult to save’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 121: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth spending on enjoying life when we are still young’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 122: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth giving up some big ticket purchases for a less pressured life’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 123: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth sacrificing current quality of life to ensure a wealthier future’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 124: Agreement with the statement ‘Increasing personal income is a better way to improve my financial situation than controlling my spending’, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 125: Attitudes towards financial management, by confidence over next 12 months, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Target Group Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 126: Target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 127: Target groups, by demographics, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 128: Confidence over next 12 months, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 129: Factors affecting willingness to spend, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 130: Spending allocation, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 131: Financial priorities, by target groups, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 132: Attitudes towards financial management, by target groups, December 2013

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                                                                                                                                                                                                          Consumers and the Economic Outlook - China - March 2014

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