Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Quarterly Update - UK - September 2016
“For the UK, the EU referendum is one of the defining moments of the 21st Century so far, with long-term implications that will rival events as seismic as the financial crisis. The truth is, though, that this early in the process there has been little direct impact on most people’s financial situation.
This comes through strongly in Mintel’s consumer confidence data. There was a post-vote dip in sentiment, but by late August most of the losses had been recovered. Spending plans have held up well, even in vulnerable areas, such as big-ticket purchases and spending on the home. Brexit will inevitably have an impact on consumer behaviour – but it’s likely to be 2017 until even the early effects start to feed through into spending.”
– Toby Clark, Director of Research, EMEA
This report discusses the following key topics:
- Consumer sentiment
- The economic environment
- Key economic indicators
The EU Referendum campaign was fought on two main fronts: the economy, and immigration. The Remain campaign focussed heavily on the threat to the British economy of leaving the EU. From trade disruption, to the erosion of the role of the City of London to house prices, the claim was that a “leave” vote would have serious economic repercussions.
There were immediate repercussions. As soon as the result was announced, share prices were hit, the value of the pound fell, and a number of companies, including Easy Jet and British Airways’ parent company, issued profit warnings. Against this background, it’s not surprising that Mintel’s data saw consumer confidence dip in the week after the result was announced.
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