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Cookies - US - August 2017

"As a commonly purchased food, cookies continue to grow, but at a modest pace from 2016-17. Mintel expects continued yet limited growth through 2022 as smaller segments better-for-you and premium cookies grow with differentiated positioning and unique flavors and formats. Elements of health may appeal to some consumers, but the majority of innovation should be focused on more indulgent flavors and formats that consumers want to see more of in order to continue to grow the category and compete against other sweet treats."
- Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Modest category growth 
  • Cookie consumers are habit driven
  • Competition from other cookies, sweets and snacks
  • Growing obesity epidemic challenges category

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Modest category growth
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Cookie consumers are habit driven
            • Figure 2: Cookie behavior, habitual behaviors, May 2017
          • Competition from other cookies, sweets and snacks
            • Figure 3: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies and other sweets, May 2017
          • Growing obesity epidemic challenges category
            • Figure 4: Growth in obesity among adults aged 20 and over in the united states, 2013-15
          • The opportunities
            • Increase frequency, target new consumers
              • Figure 5: Cookie purchase, any purchase and more than once a month, by any packaged cookies*, May 2017
            • Consumers seek indulgence
              • Figure 6: Cookie innovation, by flavor and format, May 2017
            • Convenience is key
              • Figure 7: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by packaging, May 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category growth driven by smaller segments
                • Interest in indulgence helps premium, store brand cookies
                  • BFY options small but influential
                    • Cookies compete with sweet alternatives
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Category continues modest growth
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Dominant standard cookies struggle while smaller segments grow
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2017
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Cookies bought in wide variety of channels
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Snacks act as a treat
                        • Figure 13: Snacking motivations, March 2017
                      • Fresh and convenient options test packaged
                        • Figure 14: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies, May 2017
                      • Sweet snacks rivalry could be occasion driven
                          • Figure 15: Cookie purchase, other sweets, May 2017
                      • Market Factors

                        • Rise in health issues may lead to BFY choices
                          • Figure 16: Growth in health issues in the united states, 2013-15
                        • Younger adults age into primary purchasing roles
                          • Figure 17: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
                        • Households with children growth stalled
                          • Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Big brands give way to niche
                          • Novelty drives smaller player success
                            • Increased brand participation in BFY cookies
                              • Breakfast cookies don’t deliver
                                • Indulgence gets creative
                                • Company and Brand Sales of Cookies

                                  • Mondelēz is captain of the category
                                    • Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Oreo continues its standard rule
                                    • Figure 20: MULO market share of standard cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                    • Figure 21: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Oreo and Chips Ahoy, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                  • Pepperidge Farm dominates premium cookies segment
                                    • Figure 22: MULO market share of premium cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                    • Figure 23: MULO sales of premium cookies, by Pepperidge Farm, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                  • Belvita’s breakfast positioning leads BFY
                                    • Figure 24: MULO market share of better-for-you cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                    • Figure 25: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Belvita and Nature Valley, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Private label brands find success in category
                                    • Figure 26: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by private label, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Niche brands trade on healthy decadence
                                    • Figure 27: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by other brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Single serve packaging for on-the-go
                                    • Figure 28: Cookie launches, by on-the-go claim, 2014-17
                                  • Packaging that protects product quality
                                    • Thin and crispy brand extensions
                                      • Figure 29: TV Advertisement – “Oreo Thins Hypnotize” - Oreo
                                    • Clean labels allow for indulgence with less guilt
                                      • Figure 30: Cookie launches, health claims, 2014-17
                                    • Novelty and LTOs
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Breakfast cookies struggle to connect
                                      • What’s Next?

                                        • Bootlegged flavors
                                          • Figure 31: Online video – “Tell us your Oreo creation ideas” – Oreo
                                          • Figure 32: TV Ad – “Camping Trip” – Chips Ahoy!
                                        • Category blurring
                                          • Figure 33: TV Advertisement – “New! Nature Valley Granola Cups” – Nature Valley
                                        • Protein enhanced options
                                          • Figure 34: Cookie launches, by high protein claim, 2014-17
                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                        • Cookies are pantry staples
                                          • Cookie consumers are habit driven
                                            • Cookies are snack friendly
                                              • Room to improve in packaging, flavor, and format
                                              • Cookie Purchase

                                                • Cookies are a pantry staple
                                                  • Figure 35: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies, other cookies, and other packaged sweets, May 2017
                                                • Parents are frequent cookie buyers
                                                  • Figure 36: Cookie purchase, by any packaged cookies, by parental status, May 2017
                                                • Younger adults have broad repertoire of cookies
                                                  • Figure 37: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by packaged cookie segments, by age
                                                • Men purchase cookies more frequently
                                                  • Figure 38: Cookie purchase, by any cookies, packaged cookies, and other sweets, more than once a month, by gender, May 2017
                                                • Hispanics most likely to buy all types of cookies
                                                  • Figure 39: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies and segments, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
                                              • Cookie Behavior

                                                • Consumers have established patterns
                                                  • Figure 40: Cookie behavior, May 2017
                                                • Difference in behavior impacts cookie purchase among men and women
                                                  • Figure 41: Cookie behavior, by gender, May 2017
                                                • Older adults stick with familiar, younger adults seek out variety
                                                  • Figure 42: Cookie behavior, by age, May 2017
                                                • Cookies a pantry item for parents
                                                  • Figure 43: Cookie behavior, by parental status, May 2017
                                                  • Figure 44: Cookie behavior, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2017
                                              • Cookie Occasions

                                                • PM hours offer primary occasions
                                                  • Figure 45: Cookie occasions, May 2017
                                                • AM occasions draw users of health-focused, imported cookies
                                                  • Figure 46: Cookie purchase, by cookie occasions, by for breakfast, May 2017
                                                • Men less discerning about time of day
                                                  • Figure 47: Cookie occasions, by gender, May 2017
                                              • Cookie Attitudes

                                                • Convenience and indulgence drive popularity of packaged cookies
                                                  • Figure 48: Cookie attitudes, any agree, May 2017
                                                • Age and gender play role in attitudinal differences on cookies
                                                  • Figure 49: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by health and premium and store brand cookies, by gender and age, May 2017
                                                  • Figure 50: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by boredom with current flavors and cookie innovation, by gender and age, May 2017
                                                • Household income impacts price consumers are willing to pay
                                                  • Figure 51: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by worth paying more for and store brand cookies, by household income, May 2017
                                              • Cookie Attributes

                                                • Consumers indicate taste and flavor are most important cookie attributes
                                                  • Figure 52: Cookie attributes, May 2017
                                                • Health attributes most important for those that eat cookies for breakfast
                                                  • Figure 53: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by health, May 2017
                                                • Resealable packaging brings flexibility to cookie occasions
                                                  • Figure 54: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by resealable packaging, May 2017
                                                • Taste and low sugar more important attributes for older consumers
                                                  • Figure 55: Cookie attributes, by age, May 2017
                                                  • Figure 56: Cookie attributes, by health, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
                                              • Cookie Innovation

                                                • Consumers show interest in packaging, format, and flavor innovation
                                                    • Figure 57: Cookie innovation, May 2017
                                                  • Mixed offering of innovation ideal for reaching a majority of consumers
                                                    • Figure 58: TURF analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
                                                  • Hispanics most interested in stuffed, sweet and spicy cookies
                                                    • Figure 59: Cookie innovation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
                                                  • Parents express greater interest across most cookie innovations
                                                    • Figure 60: Cookie innovation, by parental status, May 2017
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                              • Terms
                                                              • Appendix – TURF Analysis

                                                                • Methodology
                                                                  • Figure 61: Table – TURF Analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                  • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                  • Figure 72: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
                                                                  • Figure 73: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 74: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 75: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 76: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                  • Figure 77: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 78: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                  • Figure 79: MULO sales of better-for-you cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                              Cookies - US - August 2017

                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)