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Cookies - US - September 2015

"Cookie sales are on a general upward slope, with healthier cookies braced to experience the strongest growth through 2020 as the segment leverages its strong appeal among the category’s biggest demographic: young families. Standard cookies will remain the largest segment, as consumers embrace them as affordable indulgences for themselves and their families."

Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report covers the following areas:

  • Cookie sales rise as consumers look to healthier and premium options
  • Public problems for private label
  • Parents factor health into premium purchases

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Cookie sales rise as consumers look to healthier and premium options
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Public problems for private label
            • Figure 2: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
          • Parents factor health into premium purchases
            • Figure 3: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Millennials most likely to consume all forms of cookies
              • Figure 4: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
            • Packaged cookies resonate with Hispanic Millennials
              • Figure 5: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
            • Young dads a particular target for healthy cookies
              • Figure 6: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Cookie sales to surpass $9 billion
                • Healthy growth for healthy cookies
                  • Private label declines
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Healthy cookie sales to rise, standard cookies remain the category leader
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Standard cookies dominate, premium performance depends on economy
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Healthy sales remain...healthy
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Premium benefiting from slowly improving economy
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Sales of private label cookies in decline
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Consumer snacking behavior trends healthier
                      • Figure 14: Consumer opinions of snacking and sweets, winter 2011-15
                    • Snack bars could encroach upon healthy cookies
                      • Figure 15: Most often eaten, by age, November 2014
                  • Market Factors

                    • Obesity concerns may lead to healthier choices
                      • Figure 16: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are obese, by gender and age, and obesity grade, 2009-12
                    • Kids and cookies
                      • Figure 17: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                    • Hispanic Millennials over index on packaged cookies
                      • Figure 18: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Mondelēz dominates the cookie category
                      • Cookies could improve health profiles
                        • Potential for organic cookies
                        • Manufacturer Sales of Cookies

                          • Mondelēz sales improve, as Kellogg’s slip
                            • Manufacturer sales of cookies
                              • Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                            • Oreos lead standard cookies, the category’s largest segment
                              • Figure 20: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Working?

                            • Standard brands go premium
                              • Figure 21: MULO sales of Pepperidge Farm Milano cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
                              • Figure 22: Mondelēz International, “Oreo Thins Commercial,” TV Ad, August 2015
                            • Health adds to indulgent cookies
                              • Figure 23: MULO sales of Udi’s Gluten-free cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
                              • Figure 24: Cookie launches, by claim, 2012-15
                          • What’s Struggling?

                            • Premium growth impacts standard cookie sales
                              • Figure 25: MULO sales of Keebler cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
                              • Figure 26: New cookie introductions, branded versus private label, 2010-15
                          • What’s Next?

                            • Organic options could grow the stagnant private label segment
                              • Figure 27: Walmart’s Wild Oats Organic Cookies
                            • Citing health, consumers avoiding artificial
                              • Figure 28: Annie’s Homegrown Bernie’s Farm Animal Cookies
                              • Figure 29: MULO sales of Mondelēz International’s Belvita, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
                              • Figure 30: Kellogg's Nutri-Grain Apple Cinnamon Breakfast Biscuits
                              • Figure 31: Lance Quick Starts Cinnamon Roll Breakfast Biscuit Sandwiches
                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                            • Healthy cookies resonate with parents
                              • Millennials regard cookies as affordable indulgences
                                • Artificial-free ingredients resonate with Hispanic Millennial cookie consumers
                                • Cookie Purchase

                                  • Households with children lead cookie purchasers
                                    • Figure 32: Purchase of cookies, June 2015
                                • Purchase for Children

                                  • Parents factor health into premium purchases
                                    • Figure 33: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
                                • Millennials Spending on Cookies

                                  • Standard cookies garner most Millennial dollars
                                    • Figure 34: Cookie purchase for household, by generation, June 2015
                                    • Figure 35: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
                                • Healthy Cookies and Millennials

                                  • Healthier cookies resonate with Millennial parents, especially dads
                                    • Figure 36: Cookies purchased for household, by gender, June 2015
                                    • Figure 37: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
                                • Healthy Demands of Packaged Cookies

                                  • Millennials particularly interested in healthy cookies
                                    • Figure 38: Health attributes of importance when purchasing, by generation, June 2015
                                    • Figure 39: Demands for cookies, by generation, June 2015
                                • Interest in Organic Cookies

                                  • Organic claims resonate with Millennials
                                    • Figure 40: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
                                • Household Income and Consumption

                                  • Premium brands resonate more with higher-income households
                                    • Figure 41: Cookie consumption – More than twice a week, by type, by household income, June 2015
                                    • Figure 42: Cookie packages eaten, winter 2015
                                • Hispanic Millennials Likely to Choose Packaged Cookies

                                  • Healthy, premium cookies resonate with Hispanic Millennials
                                    • Figure 43: Cookie consumption, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
                                    • Figure 44: Demands for cookies, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
                                • Consumer Segmentation

                                    • Figure 45: Cookie clusters, June 2015
                                  • Group one: Healthy cookie consumers
                                    • Opportunities
                                        • Figure 46: Health attributes, by target group, June 2015
                                      • Group two: Cookie indulgers
                                        • Opportunities
                                            • Figure 47: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
                                          • Group three: Brand buyers
                                            • Opportunities
                                              • Figure 48: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                            • Data sources
                                              • Sales data
                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                      • Appendix – Market

                                                          • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 58: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                          • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                          • Figure 60: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                          • Figure 61: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                          • Figure 62: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                          • Figure 63: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                          • Figure 64: MULO sales of healthy cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                      • Appendix – Consumer

                                                          • Figure 65: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
                                                          • Figure 66: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
                                                          • Figure 67: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015

                                                      Companies Covered

                                                      • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                      Cookies - US - September 2015

                                                      US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)