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Cordials and Squashes - UK - July 2010

The squash/cordials market was in slow but steady decline until the economic downturn radically changed consumer purchasing habits, with value overriding the desire for premium and healthy soft drink products.

However, whether the market can sustain its current level of growth beyond the current economic downturn is largely down to whether it sufficiently develops its premium cordial segment, an area for growth that has so far been vastly under-realised.

  • The squash sector has benefited from a consumer re-evaluation of what constitutes value for money, growing by 7% in 2009 to reach £463m. The niche cordials market, worth just £12m in 2009 faired less well due primarily to its upmarket positioning.
  • A lack of investment by the major soft drinks players (i.e. Britvic, Coca Cola Enterprises) lies behind the cordials sector’s niche status however, as a product cordial remains on trend with many key drivers in the soft drinks market such as premiumisation, naturalness and health.
  • Squash and cordials are still perceived as fundamentally unhealthy with purchases driven primarily by value and flavour. Only 30% (8.5m) of its buyers think squash/cordials are healthy compared to 68% (15.5m) for byers of fruit juice.
  • Consumer interest in health credentials; seven in ten buyers of squash/cordials would prefer that they do not contain additives, is not translating into purchases as only a fifth purchase them because they think they consist of good quality ingredients.
  • Four in five squash buyers appreciate the fact they can control the strength of squash/cordials and customise it to their palate. This is a USP that major brands are currently failing to push.
  • More needs to be done to educate consumers about new innovations in the market. Currently, few understand the difference between a squash and cordial and why they should pay more for the latter. Also, many believe that double-concentrate squash, while a good idea in theory, may actually be a false economy.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Definitions
        • Abbreviations
        • Future Opportunities

          • How to win mothers and influence them
            • Taking customisation a step further
            • Market in Brief

              • A rare example of a market benefiting from a recession
                • But without greater premiumisation the market will stagnate
                  • Innovation can drive growth but needs to be managed carefully
                  • Internal Market Environment

                    • Key points
                      • The increasing premiumisation of soft drinks…
                        • …is cut short by the economic downturn
                          • Figure 1: Agreement with attitude statements on shopping, 2005-09
                          • Figure 2: Spend per capita on UK soft drinks, 2003-08
                        • Prices of raw costs soar…
                          • Figure 3: Month-on-month Retail prices Index (RPI) change for UK soft drinks, January 2009-May 2010
                        • Double concentrates provides ‘more value’
                          • Figure 4: Own-label double concentrates introduced, April 2008-April 2010
                        • Bad summers affect some soft drinks more than others
                          • Figure 5: How seasonality affects cordials compared to bottled water, 2006-09
                        • Health takes a back seat – but diet is still key
                          • Figure 6: Agreement with attitude statements on diet/health, 2005-09
                        • Parents acting as gatekeepers
                          • Calories versus health
                            • Functionality is still important
                            • Broader Market Environment

                              • Key points
                                • Legislating for calories…
                                  • … or should it be sweeteners?
                                    • Economy likely to get worse, not better
                                      • UK continues its shift to a ‘white collar’ dominated society
                                        • A steadily ageing population puts an emphasis on health benefits
                                          • Kids aged 5-9 to see a growth spurt
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Soft drinks prove robust despite economic conditions
                                                  • Figure 7: Percentage yearly growth in 2008 UK household spend, by selected category, in real value (based on 2005)
                                                • From premium to value for money
                                                    • Figure 8: Trends in penetration of soft drinks, by drink type, 2005-09
                                                  • Squash is able to re-engage with its customer base
                                                    • Figure 9: Usage and frequency of fruit squashes and cordials, 2005-09
                                                  • ‘Full-fat’ soft drinks are now comfortably in the minority
                                                    • Figure 10: The proportion of soft drinks which are low-calorie/ no added sugar and ‘standard’
                                                • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                  • Strengths
                                                    • Weaknesses
                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Going natural
                                                          • Figure 11: Claims made about new Innovations in the cordials and squashes market, May 2008-April 2010
                                                        • New flavours consist of the old classics
                                                          • Figure 12: New Innovations in the cordials and squashes market, by flavour (incl. blend), May 2008-April 2010
                                                      • Market Value and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Market sees slow value growth
                                                            • Figure 13: Volume and value sales forecast for the total squash/cordial market, 2005-15
                                                          • Steadily accumulating value in take-home
                                                            • Figure 14: Volume and value sales forecast for the total take-home squash/cordial market, 2005-15
                                                          • A small uplift in on-premise but plenty of growth potential
                                                            • Figure 15: Volume and value sales forecast for the total on-premise squash/cordial market, 2005-15
                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Squash hits its peak in 2009
                                                                • Figure 16: Forecast for take-home volume and value sales of the squash market, 2005-15
                                                              • Cordials in arrested development
                                                                • Figure 17: Forecast for take-home volume and value sales of the cordials market, 2005-15
                                                            • Market Share

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Robinsons increases its dominance
                                                                  • Own-label cashes in
                                                                    • Figure 18: Trends for value sales of squash/cordial brands in the take-home sector, 2007-09
                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Britvic
                                                                      • Coca-Cola
                                                                        • GlaxoSmithKline
                                                                          • Nichols
                                                                            • Princes
                                                                            • Brand Elements

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Attitudes towards and purchase of cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                    • Brand qualities of cordial and squash brands
                                                                                      • Traditional old favourites lead the pack
                                                                                        • Figure 20: Personalities of various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                      • Experience of cordial and squash brands
                                                                                        • Robinsons and Ribena most popular
                                                                                          • Figure 21: Consumer purchase of various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                        • Brand consideration for cordial and squash brands
                                                                                          • Rose’s, Ocean Spray, Bottlegreen most considered
                                                                                            • Figure 22: Consideration of various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                          • Brand satisfaction for cordial and squash brands
                                                                                            • Robinsons top performer, Bottlegreen could do better
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Satisfaction with various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                            • Brand commitment to cordial and squash brands
                                                                                              • Robinsons has loyal fans
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Commitment to various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                              • Brand intentions for cordial and squash brands
                                                                                                • Robinsons retains most custom, Bottlegreen tailing off
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Future purchase intentions for various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                                • Brand recommendation for cordial and squash brands
                                                                                                  • Robinsons and Ribena most recommended
                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Recommendation of various cordial and squash brands, May 2010
                                                                                                  • Ribena
                                                                                                    • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Attitudes towards the Ribena brand, May 2010
                                                                                                    • Bottlegreen
                                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Attitudes towards the bottlegreen brand, May 2010
                                                                                                      • Vimto
                                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Attitudes towards the Vimto brand, May 2010
                                                                                                        • Robinsons
                                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Attitudes towards the Robinsons brand, May 2010
                                                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Size increasingly matters
                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Trends for values sales of the squash and cordial market, by off-trade retail channel, 2005-09
                                                                                                              • Growth opportunity in on-trade
                                                                                                              • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Aiming to capitalise on recessionary window of opportunity
                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Spend per year on above-the-line advertising for cordials and squashes, 2005-09
                                                                                                                  • Promotional activity for brand leaders
                                                                                                                    • Cordials have to be very targeted
                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Media advertising expenditure on squashes and cordials, by brand, 2007-09
                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Media advertising expenditure on squashes and cordials, by advertiser, 2007-09
                                                                                                                  • Consumer Usage of Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Cordials/squash purchased by three quarters of the UK population
                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Types of soft drinks bought in the past 12 months, April 2010
                                                                                                                      • Mothers are the key target
                                                                                                                        • Consumption drops off post family lifestage
                                                                                                                          • Preference among young consumers
                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Buyers of different soft drinks in the past 12 months, indexed by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                            • That they last longer restricts frequency
                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Frequency of buying standard price/quality squash/cordials, compared to other soft drinks in the past 12 months, April 2010
                                                                                                                            • Value soft drinks hugely out-selling premium
                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Types and Price/quality of soft drinks bought in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                            • Cordials are not capitalising on the premium opportunity
                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Premium cordial/squash drinkers compared to other soft drink sub-categories, April 2010
                                                                                                                              • Converting more buyers from standard squash to premium cordials
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Purchasing of standard, value and premium squash/cordials, April 2010
                                                                                                                              • Consumer Purchase Drivers of Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • About flavours and value, not branding
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Main factors which influenced purchase of cordials/squash in the past 12 months, April 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Women are especially pragmatic
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Net difference in attitudes towards cordials/squash, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Debate over whether own-label really is better value
                                                                                                                                    • Flavours and value are the key points of difference over competitors
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Most influential benefit in buying each soft drink, by main soft drink types, April 2010
                                                                                                                                    • But consumers are choosing fruit juices/smoothies for health and quality
                                                                                                                                      • Stealing greater share from bottled water
                                                                                                                                        • Fizzy carbonates rely on style not substance
                                                                                                                                          • Consumers given little reason to pay a premium for cordials
                                                                                                                                            • Given tangible reasons to pay more, women like the idea of cordials
                                                                                                                                              • Quality ingredients are the biggest selling point for cordial buyers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: What influences buyers of premium cordial/squash compared to all cordial/squash buyers, April 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Consumer Attitudes Towards Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Consumers love being in control
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Any agree with attitudes towards cordials/squash, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Additives are a bigger issue than sugar
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Net difference in attitudes towards cordials/squash, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Long-lasting versus fresh
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Attitudes of premium cordial/squash buyers compared to all cordial/squash buyers, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Lack of familiarity is holding back double-strength…
                                                                                                                                                      • … as well as scepticism about whether they are really better value
                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix

                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research
                                                                                                                                                          • Advertising data
                                                                                                                                                            • Focus groups
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Attitudinal statements on shopping, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Attitudinal statements on diet/health, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Trends in personal concerns, June 2009-April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Obesity and Overweight prevelance among children in England, 2001-08
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2005 prices, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Trends and projections in the UK population (000s), by age group, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Above-the-line media advertising expenditure on squashes and cordials, by advertisers, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Above-the-line media advertising expenditure on squashes and cordials, by brands, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Consumer Usage of Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Any buyers of cordials/squash compared to other soft drinks in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Buyers of standard squash/cordials and other key competitors in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Buyers of value squash/cordials and other key competitors in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Buyers of premium squash/cordials and other key competitors in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Consumer Purchase Drivers of Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Key purchase drivers for buying squash/cordials in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Secondary purchase drivers for buying squash/cordials in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Cordials/Squash

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Main factors influencing choice of cordials/squash bought, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Other factors influencing choice of cordials/squash bought, by demographics, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Other factors influencing choice of cordials/squash bought, by demographics, April 2010

                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                            • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                            • British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
                                                                                                                                                            • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                            • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                            • British Soft Drinks Association
                                                                                                                                                            • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                                            • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                            • Coca-Cola GB
                                                                                                                                                            • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                            • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
                                                                                                                                                            • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                            • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                            • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                            • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                            • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                            • Outdoor Advertising Association of Great Britain
                                                                                                                                                            • Procter & Gamble UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                            • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                            • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                            • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                            • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                            • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                            Cordials and Squashes - UK - July 2010

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