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Cordials and Squashes - UK - October 2011

“In order not to be left behind again if and when the economy recovers and starts to grow, the squash/cordials market needs to be more proactive in anticipating and modifying its product to synthesise with consumer trends.”

– Jonny Forsyth, Senior Drinks Analyst

Some questions answered in the report include:

  • Is the market over-reliant on a weak economy?
  • Is this an investable market for UK soft drink companies?
  • Has the industry segmented itself in a way which will maximise profits?
  • Is the industry missing out on potential revenue from older consumers?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Market size and forecast for value sales for the UK total cordials/squash market, 2006-16
              • Market factors
                • Figure 2: Statements about shopping habits, 2007-11
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Figure 3: Market share in value sales for the squash/cordials take-home market, 2010
              • The consumer
                • Figure 4: Penetration of squash/cordial purchasing, by type, over the past six months, July 2011
                • Figure 5: Factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, July 2011
              • What we think
              • Issues in the Market

                  • Is the market over-reliant on a weak economy?
                    • Is this an investable market for UK soft drink companies?
                      • Has the industry segmented itself in a way which will maximise profits?
                        • Is the industry missing out on potential revenue from older consumers?
                        • Future Opportunities

                            • Make it mine
                              • Transumers
                              • Internal Market Environment

                                • Key points
                                  • Prioritising value at the expense of other factors
                                    • Health takes a back seat to price
                                      • Figure 6: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
                                    • Brands have a greater need to justify their worth
                                      • The rise of low calorie soft drinks
                                        • Figure 7: Proportion of cordials/squash drinkers who drink sugar-free variants most often, 2007-11
                                      • Squash/cordials rely on a summer seasonal uplift
                                        • Figure 8: Trends for quarterly penetration of cordials/squash in past 12 months, 2006-10
                                      • British provenance becomes a big selling point
                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                        • Key points
                                          • Economic growth is sluggish…
                                            • Figure 9: The change in UK GDP at constant prices, Q1 2007-Q2 2011
                                          • ... and consumer incomes are dramatically squeezed
                                            • Figure 10: Year-on-year % change in average weekly earnings compared to inflation in the UK, January 2008-June 2011
                                          • Inflation hits soft drink prices at the worst possible time
                                            • Figure 11: Trends in annual inflation per quarter (measured in RPI) for soft drinks compared to all items, 2009 Q1 – 2011 Q2
                                          • Changes in the UK social structure
                                            • Figure 12: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                          • Ageing population poses a challenge for the category
                                            • Figure 13: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
                                        • Competitive Context

                                          • Key points
                                            • The decline in alcohol drinking opens up opportunities
                                              • Figure 14: Sales of major UK drinks categories, 2006-10
                                            • Energy drinks are the big winners as soft drink competition intensifies
                                              • Figure 15: Drink types consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                            • Strengths
                                              • Weaknesses
                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                • Key points
                                                  • 2011 sees double concentrate innovation take off
                                                    • Figure 16: The proportion of new product developments in the cordial/squash market which are double concentrate, January 2008-September 2011
                                                  • Natural and ethical claims are driving force behind NPD
                                                    • Figure 17: Top claims for new product developments in the Cordial/squash market January 2007-August 2011
                                                  • Orange replaces apple as top flavour in NPD in 2011
                                                    • Figure 18: New product developments in the cordial/squash market, by Flavour Component, January 2007-August 2011
                                                  • Smaller players experiment with off piste flavours
                                                    • Winter warmers
                                                    • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Market builds towards the billion-pound mark
                                                            • Figure 19: Market size and forecast for the total UK cordials/squash market, in volume and value sales. 2006-16
                                                            • Figure 20: Market size and forecast for value sales for the UK total cordials/squash market, 2006-16
                                                          • Take home remains the engine of growth
                                                            • Figure 21: Volume and value sales for the UK take-home cordials/squash market, 2006-16
                                                          • On-premise can capitalise on changing nature of the pub market
                                                            • Figure 22: Volume and value sales for the UK on-premise cordials/squash market, 2006-16
                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                          • Market Share

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Robinsons’ dominance of the market continues
                                                                • Figure 23: Trends for market share of the top 10 leading squash/cordial brands in the take-home channel, 2008-10
                                                              • Own-label’s large slice of the market is eroding
                                                                • … but value brands perform well
                                                                  • bottlegreen shows the potential for a more premium segment
                                                                  • Companies and Products

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Belvoir Fruit Farms
                                                                        • Background
                                                                          • Product range
                                                                            • Recent activity
                                                                              • bottlegreen/SHS
                                                                                • Background
                                                                                  • Product range
                                                                                    • Recent activity
                                                                                      • Britvic
                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                          • Product range
                                                                                            • Recent activity
                                                                                              • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE)
                                                                                                • Background
                                                                                                  • Product range
                                                                                                    • GlaxoSmithKline
                                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                                        • Product range
                                                                                                          • Recent activity
                                                                                                            • Nichols
                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                • Product range
                                                                                                                  • Recent activity
                                                                                                                    • Princes
                                                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                                                        • Product range
                                                                                                                          • Recent activity
                                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Multiples strengthen their hold on the market
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Value sales for cordials/squash, by channel, 2009-10
                                                                                                                              • The on-premise market benefits from shift in pub focus
                                                                                                                              • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Attitudes towards and usage of cordial and squash brands, August 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Attitudes, by cordial and squash brand, August 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Cordial and squash brand personality – macro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Cordial and squash brand personality – micro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                    • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Cordial and squash brand usage, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Satisfaction with various cordial and squash brands, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Consideration of cordial and squash brands, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Consumer perceptions of current cordial and squash brand performance, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Cordial and squash brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, August 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Brand index
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Cordial and squash brand index, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Cordial and squash brand index vs. recommendation, August 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Target groups, August 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Cordial and squash brand usage, by target groups, August 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                                      • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                                        • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                          • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                            • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Annual advertising spend rising steadily
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Topline advertisement spend in the UK Squashes and Cordials market, 2006/07-2010/11*
                                                                                                                                                • Britvic invests heavily behind its new double concentrate
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Above-the-line advertising spend in the UK Squashes and Cordials market, by brand, 2008-11*
                                                                                                                                                • Return of the Ribena berries helps push vitamin C message to mums
                                                                                                                                                • Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumers are drinking cordials/squash with increasing frequency…
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Frequency of usage of cordials/squashes, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                      • Double concentrate proves a major success
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Penetration of squash/cordial purchasing, by type, over the past six months, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Premium ranges have potential to unlock usage among the over-45s
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Factors worth paying more for in a soft drink, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                          • 16-24s are comfortably the most regular consumers of squash/cordials
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Overall squash/cordial purchasing, by gender and age group, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Average number of monthly occasions for drinking squash/cordials, by gender, age group and socio-economic group, 2011
                                                                                                                                                          • As kids fly the nest so squash/cordial purchasing diminishes
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Index of who people purchase squash/cordials for, by age, gender and presence of children in the household, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • A product that needs to address the needs of the whole family
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Who buyers of cordial/squash purchase the product for, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer Purchase Drivers for Squash/Cordials

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Flavour is key to purchase decisions
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumers pay attention to detail over ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brands attract families
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, for drinkers of squash/cordials with children, compared to drinkers without, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Double concentrate is a threat to manufacturer brands
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, for all drinkers of squash/cordials compared to drinkers of double concentrate, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer Attitudes Towards Squash/Cordials

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Plenty of positives to shout about
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Attitudes towards squash/cordial, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                        • The importance of being in control
                                                                                                                                                                          • 16-24s more likely to perceive mixing as a “hassle factor”
                                                                                                                                                                            • Families perceive squash as more good than bad for their family’s health
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Net difference in attitudes towards squash/cordial, people with and without children (aged under 16) in their household, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Over-45s perceive health as more of a barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Net difference in attitudes to squash/cordial, over-45s versus under-45s, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunities in polarising the market rather than claiming middle ground
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 2006 prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Population trends and projections, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Brand usage, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Brand commitment, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Brand momentum, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Brand diversity, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Brand satisfaction, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Brand recommendation, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: brand attitudes, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Brand image – micro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Brand image – micro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Profile of target groups, by demographic, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Brand usage, by target group, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Brand index, August 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Advertisement expenditure in the UK squashes and cordials market, by company, 2008-11*
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Most popular types of cordials/squash bought in the past 6 months, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Next most popular types of cordials/squash bought in the past 6 months, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Who consumers bought squash/cordial for in the past six months, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Purchase Drivers for Squash/Cordials

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Most popular factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Next most popular factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Other factors most important to people when buying one squash/cordial brand over another, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Squash/Cordials

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Most popular attitudes towards squash/cordial, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Next most popular attitudes towards squash/cordial, by demographics, July 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Attitudes towards squash/cordial, July 2011

                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                              • Belvoir Fruit Farms
                                                                                                                                                                              • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Coca-Cola Enterprises Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                              • GlaxosmithKline
                                                                                                                                                                              • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Ocean Spray Cranberries, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Pepsi-Cola UK
                                                                                                                                                                              • The SHS Group

                                                                                                                                                                              Cordials and Squashes - UK - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                              £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)