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Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2013

“Another means of encouraging stronger usage among over-65s is by eradicating flavourings altogether. A substantial 41% of users aged over-65 agree that there are not enough unflavoured crisps compared with just 26% of users on average, suggesting the plain crisp offering should be expanded in stores beyond Walkers’ 90-year-old Smiths Salt And Shake brand.”

– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What points of difference can manufacturers explore to engage the growing over-65s population?
  • How can manufacturers encourage demand for vegetable crisps?
  • How is the crisps and salty snacks market responding to consumers’ concern about health?
  • What should be done to boost recognition of healthy popcorn?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Total UK retail volume sales of crisps and salty snacks*, 2007-17
            • Segment Performance
              • Figure 2: UK retail volume sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by sector, 2012 (est)
              • Figure 3: Volume growth/decline in the crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by sector, 2011-12 (est)
            • Market factors
              • The share of snackers and dieters increases in 2012
                • Potato and nut prices record inflationary hikes
                  • Growth of over-65s poses a challenge to the market
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • PD activity in potato snacks falls as the grain-based snack sector records a rise in new launches
                        • Walkers Crisps sales dip
                          • Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato crisps, baked snacks and popcorn market, by value, 2012*
                        • Adspend is on track for a four-year low
                          • The consumer
                            • Standard potato crisps are the most typically-used type of crisp
                              • Brand trust and special offers are deemed the most important choice factors
                                • Figure 5: Most important factors when choosing crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                              • Hand-cooked chips are deemed healthy but expensive
                                • Nearly half of crisps users are concerned about the healthiness of crisps
                                  • Figure 6: Attitudes towards eating crisps and salty snacks, November 2012
                                • Two fifths of users are deterred by the price of nuts
                                  • Figure 7: Attitudes towards nuts and salty snacks, November 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • What points of difference can manufacturers explore to engage the growing over-65s population?
                                      • How can manufacturers encourage demand for vegetable crisps?
                                        • How is the crisps and salty snacks market responding to consumers’ concern about health?
                                          • What should be done to boost recognition of healthy popcorn?
                                          • Trend Application

                                              • Trend: Make It Mine
                                                • Trend: FSTR and HYPR
                                                  • 2015 Trend: Old Gold
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Snacking edges up over 2011-12
                                                        • Figure 8: Agreement with the statements, ‘I don’t normally eat between meals,’ ‘I like to treat myself to foods that are not good for me,’ and snacking between meals, 2009-12
                                                      • Obesity hits a five-year high
                                                        • Figure 9: Trends in Body Mass Index segments, 2008-12
                                                      • Wet weather sends potato prices soaring in 2012
                                                        • Figure 10: UK potato (maincrop) prices, October 2011-October 2012
                                                      • Older generation set for growth
                                                        • Figure 11: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2012-17
                                                    • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                      • Strengths
                                                        • Weaknesses
                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Potato snacks account for largest share of launches though rate of NPD declines again
                                                              • Figure 12: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by product category, 2009-12
                                                            • Meat snacks embrace portability and luxury
                                                              • Morrisons and Tesco boost share of crisps and salty snacks NPD
                                                                • Figure 13: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps and salty snacks* market, by ultimate company, 2009-12
                                                              • Walkers takes on McCoy’s with Deep Ridged range
                                                                • Vegetarian remains top claim and share of new L/N/R fat crisps reaches recent high
                                                                  • Figure 14: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps and salty snacks* market, by claim, 2009-12
                                                                • Sensations ventures into nuts
                                                                  • Other notable NPD
                                                                    • Popchips arrive with low fat proposition
                                                                      • Nobby’s Nuts spice up consumption occasion with Russian Roulette concept
                                                                        • Tyrrells takes vegetable crisps to super-premium status
                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Commodity inflation and non-potato crisps and snacks drive growth
                                                                              • Figure 15: Total UK retail value and volume sales of crisps and salty snacks*, 2007-17
                                                                            • The future of the crisp and salty snack market
                                                                              • Soaring inflation hits volume sales of nuts
                                                                                • Figure 16: Total UK retail value and volume sales of nuts, 2007-17
                                                                              • The future of the nuts market
                                                                                • Market forecasts
                                                                                  • Crisps and salty snacks
                                                                                    • Figure 17: Total UK retail value sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2007-17
                                                                                    • Figure 18: Total UK retail volume sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Nuts
                                                                                    • Figure 19: Total UK retail value sales of nuts, 2007-17
                                                                                    • Figure 20: Total UK retail volume sales of nuts, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Potato-based and other snacks outperform market in value and volume terms
                                                                                        • Figure 21: UK retail value and volume sales of crisps/salty snacks and nuts, by sub-category, 2009-12
                                                                                      • Baked snacks boast a 9.5% volume hike
                                                                                        • Nuts record 6.8% value increase on the back of inflation
                                                                                          • Volumes flatline in meat snacks and popcorn
                                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Walkers dominates potato crisps despite volume dip
                                                                                                • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato crisps, baked snacks and popcorn market, by value, 2012*
                                                                                                • Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato crisps, baked snacks and popcorn market, by value and volume, 2011*-12**
                                                                                              • Walkers boasts stronger volume growth outside of potato crisps
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based and other* snacks market, by value and volume, 2011**-12***
                                                                                              • Own-label struggles to maintain share
                                                                                                • Fridge Raiders drive Mattessons’ growth in meat snacks
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK meat snacks market, by value and volume, 2011*-12**
                                                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Selected leading companies in the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market and their brands, 2012
                                                                                                • PepsiCo
                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                    • Product range
                                                                                                      • Recent product innovation
                                                                                                        • Recent marketing activity
                                                                                                          • Tyrrells
                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                              • Product range
                                                                                                                • Recent activity
                                                                                                                  • Kettle Foods
                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                      • Product range
                                                                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                                                                          • Kellogg (Pringles)
                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                              • Product range
                                                                                                                                • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                  • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                      • Product range
                                                                                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                          • Seabrook
                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                              • Product range
                                                                                                                                                • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                                • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the crisps and salty snacks sector, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Attitudes by crisps and salty snacks brand, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – macro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – micro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Satisfaction with various crisps and salty snacks brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Consideration of crisps and salty snacks brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Consumer perceptions of current crisps and salty snacks brand performance, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Crisps and salty snacks brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Crisps and salty snacks brand index, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Crisps and salty snacks brand index vs. recommendation, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                                                        • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                                                          • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                                            • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                                              • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                                                              • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Adspend continues to slide in 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Total advertising expenditure in the crisps, salty snacks, and nuts market, 2009-12*
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Total advertising expenditure in the crisps, salty snacks, and nuts market, by top 10 brands, 2009-12*
                                                                                                                                                                  • Walkers focuses investment on Baked Stars and Doritos in 2011-12
                                                                                                                                                                    • Popcorn advertising set for slump in 2012 after 2011 peak
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Total Advertising expenditure in the popcorn category, 2009-12*
                                                                                                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Multiple grocers maintain their dominance of the market
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Retail distribution of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by outlet type, 2010-12
                                                                                                                                                                      • Smaller stores and health food stores protect share
                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Over nine in ten adults eat crisps
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Types of crisps and potato-/grain -based snacks eaten, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Usage of stacking potato crisps and tortilla chips peaks among young
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Usage of stacking potato chips and tortilla chips, by age group, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Usage of pan-fried/handcooked crisps and healthy snacks/crisps rises with income
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Usage of pan-fried/hand-cooked crisps and healthy/wholegrain crisps/snacks, by gross annual household income, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Fewer than one in five adults eat veg crisps
                                                                                                                                                                              • Nearly two thirds of over-65s eat nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Types of Nuts and popcorn and meat snacks eaten, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Ready-to-eat popcorn has youth and family appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Trust in a brand trumps special offer as most important choice factor for crisp purchasing
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Most important factors when choosing crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: ‘A brand that I trust’ and ‘on special offer’ as important choice factors, by age, November 2012.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Women and over-65s prioritise health
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Natural ingredients, lower salt content and low/controlled calorie packs as factors when choosing crisps, by gender
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fewer than one in four are concerned by British provenance
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Perceptions of Crisp Formats

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Correspondence analysis, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Characteristics associated with selected types of crisps, nuts & salty snacks, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Large hand-cooked crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Puffed corn
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Tortilla crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ridged potato crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer Attitudes Towards Crisps

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nearly half of crisps users are concerned about the healthiness of crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Attitudes towards eating crisps, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Half of crisp users are keen to see resealable packaging on standard packs
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Nearly half of users don’t believe premium crisps are worth paying full price for
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Healthy ingredients, spicier flavours and dips offer growth opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Agreement with statements regarding NPD opportunities in crisps, by selected user group, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Two fifths of over-65 users want to see more unflavoured crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Agreement with the statement ‘there are not enough unflavoured crisps,’ by age, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer Attitudes Towards Nuts and Salty Snacks

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Two fifths of users are deterred by the price of nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Attitudes towards nuts and salty snacks*, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nuts provide healthy competition to crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Agreement with the statements, ‘I eat nuts and seeds as a healthy alternative to crisps,’ and ‘I prefer unflavoured nuts to flavoured varieties,’ by age, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Only one in four users see savoury popcorn as healthier than crisps
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Crisp Connoisseurs (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Price Prioritisers (34%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Healthy Snackers (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Less is More (21%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Snack usage, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Total UK retail value sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Total UK retail value and volume sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Total UK retail volume sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of nuts, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of nuts, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Brand usage, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Brand commitment, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Brand momentum, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Brand diversity, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Brand recommendation, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 76: Brand attitude, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 77: Brand image – macro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 78: Brand image – micro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 81: Brand usage by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 82: Brand index, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Types of Crisps Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 83: Types of crisps and potato-/grain-based snacks eaten, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Most popular types of crisps and potato-/grain-based snacks eaten, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Next most popular types of crisps eaten, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Types of Nuts and Salty Snacks Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Types of nuts and salty snacks eaten, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Most popular types of nuts and salty snacks eaten, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Next most popular types of nuts and salty snacks eaten, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Other types of nuts and salty snacks eaten, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Factors considered important when choosing crisps, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Most popular important factors when choosing crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Next most popular important factors when choosing crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix - Consumer Perceptions of Crisp/Salty Snack Formats

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Most popular perceptions of Hand-cooked potato crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Next most popular perceptions of Hand-cooked potato crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Most popular perceptions of puffed corn snacks, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Next most popular perceptions of puffed corn snacks, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Most popular perceptions of tortilla crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Next most popular perceptions of tortilla crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Most popular perceptions of ridged potato crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Next most popular perceptions of ridged potato crisps, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Crisps

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Attitudes towards crisps, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d be keen to see re-sealable packaging on standard-sized packets of crisps ’ and ‘Thick cut crisps are more satisfying than thin cut varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy crisps with added health ingredients (eg omega 3, added fibre) ’ and ‘I am concerned about how healthy crisps are’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘Premium crisps (eg Kettle, Red Sky) are not worth paying full price for’ and ‘I enjoy trying new, exciting crisp flavours (eg lobster & tomato, stilton & truffle) ’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘Veg crisps are a healthier alternative to regular crisps ’ and ‘Eating crisps is more enjoyable with a dip’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘Rustic crisps/unprocessed crisps (eg with potato skin) are better quality than other crisps’ and ‘I’d like to see more hotter/spicier flavours of crisps ’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Agreement with the statement ‘There are not enough unflavoured crisps’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Nuts and Salty Snacks

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Attitudes towards nuts and salty snacks, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Most popular attitudes towards nuts and salty snacks, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Next most popular attitudes towards nuts and salty snacks, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Target groups, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: Types of crisps and potato-/grain-based snacks eaten, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: Factors considered important when choosing crisps, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Attitudes towards crisps, by target groups, November 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ESPN, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kettle Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • PAI Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pepsi-Cola UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Procter & Gamble Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Symington's
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Dormen Food Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tyrrells
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walkers Snack Foods Limited

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2013

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