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Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2017

“Health concerns are prompting users to cut back: 42% say they are limiting the amount of crisp/crisp-style snacks they are buying compared to a year prior. Offering some good news for the market in this context is that 34% of users are buying more baked varieties than before.
This suggests that while variants positioned actively as healthier have limited resonance in this market, NPD in better-for-you categories has gained traction among a sizeable minority of users. As such, this stands out as a route for the industry to explore further to curb cutbacks.”
– Amy Price, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Brand extensions offer a way to create new usage occasions
  • Helping people to manage their intake should allow them to stay in the market
  • Expected income squeeze will put pressure on premium segment

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Deflation in the market in 2016
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
            • Companies and brands
              • Brands dominate NPD
                • Adspend continues to rise in 2016
                  • Walkers stands out as a brand
                    • Figure 2: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2016
                  • The consumer
                    • 93% eat crisp/crisp-style snack
                      • Figure 3: Usage of crisps and crisp-style snacks, by type, October 2016
                    • Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
                      • Figure 4: Factors influencing choice when buying crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
                    • Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
                      • Figure 5: Behaviours related to crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
                    • Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
                      • Figure 6: Attitudes towards crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts and savoury snacks, October 2016
                    • What we think
                    • Issues and Insights

                      • Brand extensions offer a way to create new usage occasions
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                            • Helping people to manage their intake should allow them to stay in the market
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • Expected income squeeze will put pressure on premium segment
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                        • Deflation in the market in 2016
                                          • Rising prices will fuel growth to 2021
                                            • Crisps sales continue to fall
                                              • Price rises could hit discretionary spending
                                                • Health remains an issue
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                  • Deflation in the market in 2016
                                                    • Figure 7: Total UK retail value and volume sales of the crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
                                                    • Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
                                                    • Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
                                                  • Other savoury snacks see volumes rise but value sales fall in 2016
                                                    • Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of other savoury snacks*, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
                                                    • Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of other savoury snacks*, 2011-21
                                                  • Crisps see ongoing deflation in 2016
                                                    • Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of the crisps market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
                                                    • Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, 2011-21
                                                  • Nuts see ongoing rise in value and volume sales
                                                    • Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of the nuts market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
                                                    • Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of nuts, 2011-21
                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                  • Market Segmentation

                                                    • Crisps sales continue to fall
                                                      • Nuts and popcorn buck sales decline
                                                        • Figure 16: UK retail value sales of savoury snacks, by category, 2011-16
                                                        • Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of savoury snacks, by category, 2011-16
                                                      • Peanuts retain lead in the nuts segment
                                                        • Figure 18: Value and volume sales of nuts, by type of nut, 2015 and 2016
                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                      • Consumer caution – and price rises – could hit discretionary spending
                                                        • Health remains an issue …
                                                          • … but there is room for occasional treats
                                                            • Demographic changes could impact the market
                                                              • Rise in the number of children could provide a boost
                                                                • Popcorn remains most popular among the young
                                                                  • Catering to the older demographic
                                                                  • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                    • Walkers leads potato-based snacks, despite sales decline
                                                                      • Walkers sees crisp sales decline
                                                                        • Potato snacks continue to lead NPD
                                                                          • Brands dominate NPD
                                                                            • Adspend continues to rise in 2016
                                                                              • Walkers stands out as a brand
                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                • Walkers leads potato-based snacks, despite sales decline
                                                                                  • Pringles growth is helped by price cuts
                                                                                    • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                  • Walkers sees crisp sales decline, while premium brands grow
                                                                                    • McCoy’s, Ritz and Jacob’s grow
                                                                                      • Premium brands see growth
                                                                                        • Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK crisps market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                      • Mini Cheddars leads baked snacks and popcorn
                                                                                        • Popcorn brands see growth
                                                                                          • Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baked snacks and popcorn market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                        • Own-label continues to dominate nuts
                                                                                          • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                        • Peperami and Mattessons dominate meat snacks
                                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                          • Potato snacks continue to lead NPD
                                                                                            • Figure 23: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by category, 2012-16
                                                                                          • Vegetables crisps see a rise in NPD
                                                                                            • Brands dominate NPD
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by brands vs own-label, 2012-16
                                                                                            • Walkers continues to expand offering
                                                                                              • M&S is the most active company by NPD
                                                                                                • NPD targets sharing
                                                                                                  • Brands extend into new areas, with popcorn a key feature
                                                                                                    • PepsiCo looks to popcorn and cracker crisps
                                                                                                      • Popcorn brands look to new directions
                                                                                                        • Ritz moves into baked
                                                                                                          • Health claims remain niche
                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                          • Focusing on positive nutrition
                                                                                                            • Fibre claims see a rise
                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market with high/added fibre claim, 2012-16
                                                                                                            • Gluten-free claim continues to rise
                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by the gluten-free claim, 2012-16
                                                                                                            • Flavour innovation provides a means of differentiation
                                                                                                              • Premium flavours
                                                                                                                • Flavour tie-ups
                                                                                                                  • Mystery campaign from Doritos
                                                                                                                    • Tapping into seasonal occasions
                                                                                                                    • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                      • Adspend continues to rise in 2016
                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2013-16
                                                                                                                      • Crisps/crisp-style snacks dominate spend
                                                                                                                        • Significant spend on meat snacks
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2013-16
                                                                                                                        • PepsiCo leads advertiser spend
                                                                                                                          • Walkers consistently advertises
                                                                                                                            • Doritos calls on snackers to eliminate least favourite flavour
                                                                                                                              • Intersnack supports Hula Hoops’ Golden Hoops
                                                                                                                                • Pladis more than doubles spend
                                                                                                                                  • Kellogg’s cuts spend on Pringles
                                                                                                                                    • Tyrrells launches first poster campaign
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2016), 2013-16
                                                                                                                                    • Walkers dominates by brand
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by top brands, 2016
                                                                                                                                    • Campaigns through alternative channels
                                                                                                                                      • Ten Acre launches story competition
                                                                                                                                        • Propercorn creates new flavour through Institute of Flavour pop-up
                                                                                                                                          • Fish ‘n’ Chips calls on consumers to vote red or brown
                                                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes: Walkers has the best all-round image
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Attitudes, by brand, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand personality: Pringles is seen to be the most ‘fun’
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Brand personality – Macro image, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Peperami is seen to be most unhealthy
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Brand personality – Micro image, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                    • Walkers has the strongest image: seen to be both trustworthy and innovative
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: User profile of Walkers, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Pringles benefits from a fun and vibrant image
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: User profile of Pringles, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Doritos is seen as fun, vibrant and diverse
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: User profile of Doritos, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • McCoy’s is seen widely as accessible and delicious
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: User profile of McCoy’s, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Butterkist is associated with indulgence
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: User profile of Butterkist, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Peperami is held back by an unappealing image
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: User profile of Peperami, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                    • 93% eat crisps/crisp-style snacks
                                                                                                                                                      • 52% eat nuts
                                                                                                                                                        • Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
                                                                                                                                                          • Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
                                                                                                                                                            • 42% are limiting their intake
                                                                                                                                                              • Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
                                                                                                                                                                • Promotions provide an excuse to purchase
                                                                                                                                                                • Usage of Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts

                                                                                                                                                                  • 93% eat crisp/crisp-style snack
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Usage of crisps and crisp-style snacks, by type, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Crisp users are conservative in their repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Repertoire of crisps and crisp-style snacks eaten, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • 52% eat nuts
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Usage of nuts and other snacks, by type, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Popcorn remains most popular among the young
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Usage of any popcorn, by age, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Women less likely to eat meat snacks
                                                                                                                                                                    • Users have a small repertoire of nuts and other snacks
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Repertoire of nuts and other savoury snacks eaten, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                    • More than two in three eat crisps/crisp-style snacks and nuts once a week or more
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Frequency of eating crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts or popcorn, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Factors Influencing Choice

                                                                                                                                                                    • Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand loyalty bodes well for extensions
                                                                                                                                                                        • Health and naturalness matter more when buying for self
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Factors influencing choice when buying crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Promotions provide an incentive to both solo and sharing occasions
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cautious spending ahead, little interest in premium ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                            • Sharing occasions prompt NPD in pack formats
                                                                                                                                                                            • Behaviours Related to Crisps/Crisp-Style Snacks

                                                                                                                                                                              • Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Behaviours related to crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                              • 42% are limiting their intake
                                                                                                                                                                                • 42% prefer premium variants
                                                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes towards Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Attitudes towards crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts and savoury snacks, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Promotions provide an excuse to purchase
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Offering control through smaller portions and resealable packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Packaging formats can help users feel in control
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Less but better
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the other savoury snacks* market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the other savoury snacks* market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Forecast of UK volume sales of other savoury snacks*, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the crisps market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the crisps market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Forecast of UK volume sales of crisps, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the nuts market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the nuts market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Forecast of UK volume sales of nuts, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK crisps market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baked snacks and popcorn market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by top 10 companies, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by top 10 flavour components, 2012-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tyrells
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Waitrose

                                                                                                                                                                                                Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2017

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