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Cruises - International - June 2014

“Companies are using Big Data to source demographic and buying pattern information on passengers and then using it to dictate how they market their products to them.” 

–    Jessica Rawlinson, Senior Tourism Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • How will cruise companies respond to shareholder demand for improved return on investment?
  • Exactly what impact will new emissions regulations now have on fuel costs and deployment decisions?
  • Will management restructuring make the major companies more profitable?
  • Is the newfound support for the travel trade just a temporary fix for cruise companies?
  • Has the cruise demand potential from China and the rest of Asia been overstated?
  • Will the power of social media prove to be positive or negative for the future of cruising?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Report objectives and structure
        • Key findings
        • Data Sources

            • Abbreviations
            • Issues in the Market

                • On-board revenue generation
                  • Financing cruise ships
                    • Distribution
                      • Operational costs
                        • Community relations
                          • Capital expenditure
                            • Crisis management
                              • Who’s innovating?
                              • Global Summary

                                    • Figure 1: Global cruise passengers, 2010-13
                                    • Figure 2: Penetration for world’s top cruise markets, 2013
                                    • Figure 3: New ships on order, May 2014-19
                                    • Figure 4: North American cruise market capacity trends, 2009-14
                                    • Figure 5: CLIA brands’ sourcing trends, 2001-13
                                  • Market growth still inconsistent in North America
                                    • Figure 6: North American cruise market, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 7: CLIA member brands river-cruise passengers, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 8: North American & European cruise markets, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 9: Cruise passenger embarkations at US & Canadian ports, 2009-12
                                    • Figure 10: North American cruise passengers by top four states, 2004-12
                                    • Figure 11: Regional shares of North American cruise passengers, 1990-2012
                                    • Figure 12: Destination shares of North American cruise capacity, 2007-12
                                    • Figure 13: CLIA travel agency affiliates, 1995-2013
                                  • European cruise markets ride economic storm
                                    • Figure 14: Western European cruise market, 2001-13
                                    • Figure 15: Western European ocean-cruise passengers by country, 2008-13
                                    • Figure 16: Five-year % growth of Western European cruise source markets, 2009-13
                                    • Figure 17: Western European countries' share of cruise passengers, 2010-13
                                    • Figure 18: Where Europeans cruised, 2007-12
                                  • UK cruise market set for renewed growth
                                    • Figure 19: UK cruise market, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 20: Market share of first-time UK cruise passengers, 2006-13
                                    • Figure 21: UK passengers booking multiple cruises in one year, 2008-13
                                    • Figure 22: Age profile of UK cruise passengers, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 23: UK-UK cruises versus flycruises, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 24: Top destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2001-13
                                    • Figure 25: Destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2008-13
                                    • Figure 26: Passengers embarking at UK cruise ports, 2007-13
                                    • Figure 27: Average per diems on UK-booked cruises, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 28: Average revenue generated by UK passengers, 2008-13
                                    • Figure 29: UK cruise market price trends, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 30: Luxury brands’ share of the UK cruise market*, 2008-13
                                    • Figure 31: Booking lead-times for UK cruise market, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 32: Average duration, in nights, of UK-booked cruises, 2005-13
                                    • Figure 33: UK cruise sector's share of foreign holidays market, 2001-13
                                    • Figure 34: UK river-cruise market, 2009-13
                                  • Germany still on target
                                    • Figure 35: German cruise market, 2004-13
                                    • Figure 36: German cruise market overview, 2009-13
                                  • Italy on the mend
                                    • Figure 37: Italian cruise market, 2004-13
                                  • France overtakes Spain
                                    • Figure 38: French cruise market, 2004-13
                                  • Spain cuts back to go forward
                                    • Figure 39: Spanish cruise market, 2004-13
                                  • Mixed fortunes in other European markets
                                    • Brazilian setback for Latin American sourcing
                                      • Figure 40: Brazil cruise traffic, 2007-14
                                    • Reality check on Asia growth rate
                                      • Figure 41: Emerging Asian source markets, 2012
                                      • Figure 42: Asia cruise traffic projections to 2020
                                      • Figure 43: Chinese ocean-cruise passengers, 2005-20
                                    • Australia now in top five source markets
                                        • Figure 44: Australian ocean- & river-cruise market, 2004-13
                                        • Figure 45: Leading cruise destinations for Australians, 2010-12
                                        • Figure 46: Cruise penetration within Australia, 2012
                                      • Dip in New Zealand progress
                                        • Figure 47: New Zealand ocean- & river-cruise market, 2006-12
                                        • Figure 48: Leading destinations for New Zealand passengers, 2010-12
                                    • Cruise Tourism’s Impact on Global Economies

                                        • Europe still the number one beneficiary of cruise tourism
                                          • Figure 49: Total economic impact of European cruise sector, 2005-12
                                          • Figure 50: Cruise-sector impact on industries within European economies, 2008-12
                                          • Figure 51: European cruise industry spending on newbuilds & refurbishment (by country), 2012
                                          • Figure 52: Benefits from cruise sector by country*, 2010-12
                                          • Figure 53: Passengers embarking at European ports, 2008-12
                                          • Figure 54: Cruise passenger visits to European ports, 2008-12
                                          • Figure 55: Global Cruise passengers by European country of embarkation, 2011-12
                                          • Figure 56: Cruise passengers’ visits to European countries*, 2010-12
                                          • Figure 57: Leading Mediterranean homeports, 2010-13
                                        • Baltic grows fast as Northern Europe attracts more ships
                                          • Figure 58: Cruise traffic to Baltic ports, 2001-13
                                          • Figure 59: Cruise turnarounds at Baltic ports, 2005-14
                                          • Figure 60: Cruise traffic at Norwegian ports, 2010-14
                                        • More growth for rest of Europe
                                          • Figure 61: Leading Northern European ports of call, 2011-13
                                          • Figure 62: Leading Northern European homeports, 2010-13
                                          • Figure 63: Total cruise passengers at Atlantic Alliance ports, 2007-13
                                          • Figure 64: Cruise traffic at Atlantic Alliance ports, 2012-13
                                          • Figure 65: Transit passengers at UK ports, 2006-13
                                        • Naval solution to Sydney bottleneck
                                            • Figure 66: Impact of the cruise sector (international & domestic) on the Australian economy, 2009-13
                                            • Figure 67: Cruise lines/crew/passenger spend in Australia, 2007-13
                                            • Figure 68: Profile of the Australian cruise industry, 2008-13
                                            • Figure 69: Economic impact of the cruise sector on Australian ports, 2012/13
                                          • Numbers stall but New Zealand impact still grows
                                            • Figure 70: Nationalities of cruise visitors at New Zealand ports, 2012-14
                                            • Figure 71: Cruise impact on New Zealand economy, 2003-14
                                            • Figure 72: Cruise traffic at New Zealand ports, 2012-13 & 2013-14
                                          • Record economic figures for North American cruise sector
                                            • Figure 73: Cruise industry impact on US economy, 2008-12
                                            • Figure 74: Spending by cruise passengers/crew in US, 2010/12
                                            • Figure 75: US industries benefiting from the cruise sector, 2008-12
                                            • Figure 76: Cruise industry impact by US state, 2012
                                            • Figure 77: Cruise spending in New York by embarking passengers, 2012-13
                                            • Figure 78: Cruise crew spending in New York, 2009-13
                                          • Canadian impact dwarfed by US
                                            • Figure 79: Impacts of cruise sector on Canadian economy, 2012
                                            • Figure 80: Passenger & crew spending by Canadian destination, 2012
                                            • Figure 81: Passenger & crew arrivals at Canadian ports, 2012
                                            • Figure 82: Cruise visits ashore by passengers & crew at Canadian ports, 2012
                                            • Figure 83: Passenger & crew arrivals in Atlantic Canada, 2000-12
                                          • South America cruise impact spreads beyond Brazil
                                            • Figure 84: Chilean cruise tourism, 2007-13
                                          • Wake-up call for the Caribbean
                                            • Figure 85: Caribbean cruise traffic, 2010-13
                                            • Figure 86: Trends in cruise visitor spending in the Caribbean, 2009-12
                                            • Figure 87: Total economic impact of cruise tourism by Caribbean destination, 2012
                                          • Deployment decisions create Gulf cruising uncertainty
                                          • On-board Revenue Generation

                                              • Charging for entertainment
                                                • Newspapers direct to tablets
                                                  • Designing ships for revenue generation
                                                    • Big Data-based retailing
                                                      • Expansion of pre-cruise sales
                                                        • Connectivity the key as gambling goes mobile
                                                        • Financing Cruise Ships

                                                            • Export credit agencies step in to support cruise financing
                                                              • Ports struggle to fund new infrastructure
                                                                • PPPs one solution to terminal finance
                                                                  • IPOs reflect new confidence in cruising
                                                                  • Distribution

                                                                      • Commission halved
                                                                        • Agents demand return of print brochures
                                                                          • Vacation Guarantee gives agents new marketing tool
                                                                            • Princess and Norwegian repair agency relationships
                                                                              • Carnival backs down on commission cut
                                                                                • CLIA agency training goes global
                                                                                  • Agents back in favour but still fear direct sales
                                                                                  • Operational Costs

                                                                                      • Fuel shortage means higher prices
                                                                                        • Two-pronged approach to limiting extra fuel cost
                                                                                          • Exemption breakthrough for major companies
                                                                                            • Alternative fuels no quick fix
                                                                                              • The nuclear option
                                                                                                • Ships slowed down, ports missed out
                                                                                                • Community Relations

                                                                                                    • No-go areas ahead for cruise ships?
                                                                                                      • Anti-cruise lobby spreads
                                                                                                        • Cruise tourism “not a nuisance”
                                                                                                          • Cruise lines not going where they are not welcome
                                                                                                            • Call for historic ports to act together
                                                                                                            • Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                • Premium pricing for newbuilds
                                                                                                                  • New life for cruise revitalisations
                                                                                                                    • Younger ships now in frame for refurbishments
                                                                                                                      • ECA restrictions drive refits
                                                                                                                        • Shipbuilders earn fraction of refurbishment price
                                                                                                                        • Crisis Management

                                                                                                                            • Bookings fall off cliff
                                                                                                                              • Travel plans based on social-media reviews
                                                                                                                                • New ship attracts record tweet numbers
                                                                                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                    • Wow-factor focus shifts shoreside
                                                                                                                                    • The Major Players in the Cruise Industry

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 88: Top four cruise companies (by capacity), 2014-19
                                                                                                                                    • Carnival Corporation & plc

                                                                                                                                        • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                          • Ownership
                                                                                                                                            • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Carnival Corporation & plc results, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                            • Major changes at the top
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Carnival fuel consumption & cost, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                            • An end to brand autonomy
                                                                                                                                              • Outsiders hired for analytics skills
                                                                                                                                                • Keeping the balance
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: Carnival capacity by region, 2012-14
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 92: Carnival revenues by area of passenger sourcing, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Carnival revenues by regional brands, 2011-13
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Carnival operating incomes by brands, 2011-13
                                                                                                                                                • Brands
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 95: Brands owned by Carnival Corporation & plc, their major markets & market sector, 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCC)

                                                                                                                                                  • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                                    • Ownership
                                                                                                                                                      • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Royal Caribbean Cruises’ results, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                                      • Shareholder backlash
                                                                                                                                                        • Brands
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Brands owned by Royal Caribbean Cruises, their major markets & market sector, 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

                                                                                                                                                          • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                                            • Ownership
                                                                                                                                                              • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: NCL Holdings’ results, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                                              • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: Brands owned by Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings, 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Other brands
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Key brands (prime source markets & market sectors) not owned by Carnival, RCC, NCLH or MSC, 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Prestige goes for IPO
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Regent Seven Seas Cruises’ financial results, 2011-13
                                                                                                                                                              • Devaluation of older ships hits operators
                                                                                                                                                              • Cruise Company Brands and their Product Niches

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: New ships by product sector, 2001-19
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 103: Average capacity of ships, 2000-16
                                                                                                                                                                • Contemporary brands
                                                                                                                                                                  • Carnival Cruise Lines (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: Carnival Cruise Lines’ fleet as at May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Royal Caribbean International (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 105: Royal Caribbean International’s fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 106: Norwegian Cruise Line’s fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Costa Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 107: Costa Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • MSC Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 108: MSC Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • AIDA Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 109: AIDA Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Disney Cruise Line
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 110: Disney Cruise Line’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Star Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 111: Star Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • TUI Cruises (RCC JV)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 112: TUI Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Budget brands
                                                                                                                                                                    • Louis Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 113: Louis Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 114: Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Thomson Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 115: Thomson Cruises’ fleet (including Island Cruises), May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Pullmantur Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 116: Pullmantur Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • P&O Cruises Australia (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 117: P&O Cruises Australia’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Ibero Cruceros (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 118: Ibero Cruceros’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Portuscale Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 119: Portuscale Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Voyages of Discovery
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 120: Voyages of Discovery’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cruise & Maritime Voyages
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 121: Cruise & Maritime Voyages’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Other budget brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Premium brands
                                                                                                                                                                        • Princess Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Princess Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Holland America Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Holland America Line’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Celebrity Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Celebrity Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • P&O Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: P&O Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cunard Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 126: Cunard Line’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Saga Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 127: Saga Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Other premium brands
                                                                                                                                                                          • Premium-plus brands
                                                                                                                                                                            • Oceania Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 128: Oceania Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Azamara Club Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 129: Azamara Club Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • New Premium and Premium-plus brands
                                                                                                                                                                              • Luxury brands
                                                                                                                                                                                • Silversea Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 130: Silversea Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Crystal Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 131: Crystal Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Seabourn Cruise Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 132: Seabourn Cruise Line’s fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Regent Seven Seas Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 133: Regent Seven Seas Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Hapag-Lloyd Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 134: Hapag-Lloyd Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Windstar Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 135: Windstar Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Ponant Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 136: Ponant Cruises’ fleet, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand and industry growth
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 137: Top 20 cruise brands, by current & ordered capacity, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 138: Global cruise passengers projections, 2013-24
                                                                                                                                                                                • What Next?

                                                                                                                                                                                  • River cruisers to become potential new source for ocean brands
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cruise companies vs ports – who pays who?
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Putting out the welcome mat for children
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Industry targets good sustainability PR
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The suite smell of success?

                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                          Cruises - International - June 2014

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