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Cruises - June 2016

“The Chinese market will radically alter the whole pattern of international tourism over the next couple of decades … and the development of its cruise market will change the global cruise industry’s dynamic in a myriad of ways.”

Jessica Kelly, Senior Tourism Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Report objectives and structure
        • Key findings
        • Data Sources

          • Abbreviations

            • Issues in the Market

                • Fathoming out cruise voluntourism
                  • Door ajar for Cuba cruising
                    • Expedition breakthrough for Luxury brands
                      • Customising cruising for Chinese
                        • Covering the cost of connectivity
                          • Turning Millennials into cruisers
                            • Barriers to entry
                              • Who’s innovating?
                              • Global Summary

                                    • Figure 1: Global cruise passengers, 2012-15
                                    • Figure 2: New ships on order for delivery from July 2016 to 2026
                                    • Figure 3: New ships on order for delivery from July 2016 to 2026 (continued)
                                  • True growth hard to define for North American market
                                    • Figure 4: North American ocean-/river-cruise market, 2004-15
                                    • Figure 5: Cruise-passenger embarkations at US & Canadian ports, 2011-14
                                    • Figure 6: North American & European cruise markets, 2003-15
                                    • Figure 7: North American cruise passengers by top 4 states, 2004-14
                                    • Figure 8: Regional shares of North American cruise passengers, 1990-2014
                                    • Figure 9: Destination shares of North American/global cruise capacity, 2011-16
                                    • Figure 10: North American cruise-passenger demographics, 2002-14
                                    • Figure 11: Cruise durations for North American cruise passengers, 2002-14
                                    • Figure 12: Consumer perception of best price for a cruise (ocean & river), 2004-14
                                    • Figure 13: Consumer perception of distribution channel with best service to book ocean/river cruise, 2004-14
                                  • UK recovery drives more Euro growth
                                    • Figure 14: Western European cruise market, 2001-15
                                    • Figure 15: Western European ocean-cruise passengers by country, 2009-15
                                    • Figure 16: Five-year % growth of Western European cruise source markets, 2011-15
                                    • Figure 17: Western European countries’ share of cruise passengers, 2011-15
                                    • Figure 18: Where Europeans cruised, 2011-15
                                  • Supply triggers demand once again in UK
                                    • Figure 19: UK cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 20: UK cruise sector’s share of foreign holidays market, 2001-15
                                    • Figure 21: Market share of first-time UK cruise passengers, 2006-15
                                    • Figure 22: UK passengers booking multiple cruises in one year, 2010-15
                                    • Figure 23: Age profile of UK cruise passengers, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 24: UK-UK cruises versus flycruises, 2004-15
                                    • Figure 25: Top destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2001-15
                                    • Figure 26: Destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2010-15
                                    • Figure 27: Passengers embarking at UK cruise ports, 2009-15
                                    • Figure 28: Average per diems on UK-booked cruises, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 29: Average revenue generated by UK passengers, 2010-15
                                    • Figure 30: UK cruise-market price trends, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 31: Luxury brands’ share of the UK cruise market*, 2010-15
                                    • Figure 32: Booking lead-times for UK cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 33: Average duration, in nights, of UK-booked cruises, 2007-15
                                    • Figure 34: UK river-cruise market, 2011-15
                                  • Germany slows down – For now
                                    • Figure 35: German cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 36: German cruise-market overview, 2011-15
                                    • Figure 37: Top destinations for German cruise passengers, 2013-15
                                  • France overtakes Spain and Italy
                                    • Figure 38: French cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 39: Destination breakdown for French passengers, 2010-14
                                  • Italy drops again
                                    • Figure 40: Italian cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 41: Destination breakdown for Italian passengers, 2010-14
                                  • Spain on the way back
                                    • Figure 42: Spanish cruise market, 2005-15
                                    • Figure 43: Destination breakdown for Spanish passengers, 2010-14
                                  • Scandinavia leads the way for other European markets
                                    • South America slipping off cruise-sector radar
                                      • Figure 44: Brazil cruise traffic, 2009-15
                                    • A better basis for forecasting Asian markets
                                        • Figure 45: Emerging Asian source markets, 2014
                                      • No end in sight for capacity influx into Australia
                                        • Figure 46: Australian ocean- & river-cruise market, 2004-15
                                        • Figure 47: Leading cruise destinations for Australians, 2010-15
                                        • Figure 48: Cruise penetration within Australia, 2014
                                      • Steady growth doubles New Zealand passengers in five years
                                        • Figure 49: New Zealand ocean- & river-cruise market, 2006-14
                                        • Figure 50: Leading destinations for New Zealand passengers, 2011-15
                                    • Cruising’s US$120-billion Impact

                                        • Europe still the number-one beneficiary of cruise tourism
                                          • Figure 51: Total economic impact of European cruise sector, 2005-14
                                          • Figure 52: European cruise-industry spending on new-builds & refurbishment (by country), 2014
                                          • Figure 53: Total cruise-sector impact on industries within European economies, 2010-14
                                          • Figure 54: Benefits from cruise sector by country*, 2012-14
                                          • Figure 55: Passengers embarking at European ports, 2010-14
                                          • Figure 56: Cruise-passenger visits to European ports, 2010-14
                                          • Figure 57: Global cruise passengers by European country of embarkation, 2012-14
                                          • Figure 58: Passengers’ visits to European countries*, 2012-14
                                          • Figure 59: Cruise-passenger movements per MedCruise country, 2014-15
                                          • Figure 60: Leading Mediterranean homeports, 2012-15
                                        • Traffic drop-off for Baltic not as severe as feared
                                          • Figure 61: Cruise traffic to Baltic ports, 2001-16
                                          • Figure 62: Cruise turnarounds at Baltic ports, 2006-16
                                          • Figure 63: Cruise traffic at Norwegian ports, 2010-15
                                          • Figure 64: Cruise traffic at Norwegian ports, 2010-15 (continued)
                                          • Figure 65: Nationalities of cruise visitors to Norway, 2009-14
                                        • More growth for rest of Europe
                                          • Figure 66: Leading Northern European homeports, 2010-15
                                          • Figure 67: Leading Northern European ports of call, 2013-15
                                          • Figure 68: Total cruise passengers at Atlantic Alliance ports, 2007-15
                                          • Figure 69: Transit passengers at UK ports, 2008-15
                                        • No sign of end to Aussie impact growth
                                          • Figure 70: Impact of cruise sector (international & domestic) on Australian economy, 2009-15
                                          • Figure 71: Cruise lines/crew/passenger spend in Australia, 2007-15
                                          • Figure 72: Profile of the Australian cruise industry, 2008-15
                                          • Figure 73: Economic impact of cruise sector on Australian ports, 2014/15
                                          • Figure 74: Economic impact of cruise sector on Australian ports, 2014/15 (continued)
                                        • Modest rise in cruise visitors to boost New Zealand impact
                                          • Figure 75: Cruise traffic at New Zealand ports, 2014-15
                                          • Figure 76: Nationalities of cruise visitors at New Zealand ports, 2012-15
                                          • Figure 77: Nationalities of cruise visitors at New Zealand ports, forecast to 2017
                                          • Figure 78: Forecast cruise traffic at New Zealand ports to 2017
                                          • Figure 79: Cruise traffic forecast at each New Zealand port to 2017
                                          • Figure 80: Cruise-sector impact on New Zealand economy, 2003-17
                                        • Upsurge in US port embarkations drives record growth
                                          • Figure 81: Cruise-industry impact on US economy, 2010-14
                                          • Figure 82: Spending by cruise passengers/crew in US, 2012-14
                                          • Figure 83: Embarkations from US cruise ports, 2011-14
                                          • Figure 84: US industries benefiting from the cruise sector, 2008-14
                                          • Figure 85: Cruise industry impact by US state in 2014 & shares in 2014
                                        • Record passenger/crew spending in New York City
                                          • Figure 86: Cruise spending in New York by embarking passengers, 2012-15
                                          • Figure 87: Cruise crew spending in New York, 2011-15
                                        • Cruise-visitor numbers stall for decade in British Columbia
                                          • Benefits fall as Brazilian cruise sector declines
                                            • Caribbean all set for renewed growth
                                              • Figure 88: Caribbean cruise traffic, 2012-14
                                              • Figure 89: Total economic impact of cruise tourism by Caribbean destination, 2014/15
                                              • Figure 90: Trends in cruise-visitor spending in the Caribbean, 2008-15
                                              • Figure 91: Caribbean cruise-tourism expenditure comparison of 2011/12 & 2014/15
                                              • Figure 92: Caribbean cruise-tourism expenditure comparison of 2011/12 & 2014/15
                                              • Figure 93: Analysis of Caribbean port-of-call passenger visits in 2014/15
                                            • Chinese ripple effect heading for South East Asia
                                              • Figure 94: Cruise tourism impact (by country) on South East Asian economies, 2014
                                              • Figure 95: Cruise calls & expenditure in South East Asia, 2014
                                              • Figure 96: Cruise tourism impact (by category) on South East Asia, 2014
                                            • Bridging the gulf in Arabian homeports
                                            • Fathoming Out Cruise Voluntourism

                                                • Shore excursions the first cruise voluntourism
                                                  • Courting controversy
                                                    • Social impact of cruise travel
                                                      • Impact ‘mind-numbingly difficult’ without income
                                                      • Door Ajar for Cuba Cruising

                                                          • Pent-up demand in US for Cuba cruising
                                                            • More ports with docks needed to drive cruise growth
                                                            • Expedition Breakthrough for Luxury Brands

                                                                • Yields 50% higher
                                                                  • New owners, new investment
                                                                    • Vote of confidence
                                                                    • Customising Cruising for Chinese

                                                                        • Chinese entry delayed for CCL
                                                                          • Ships customised for Chinese
                                                                            • Per diems 30% higher
                                                                              • Joint ventures fast-track market growth
                                                                                • Public and private financing for port developments
                                                                                  • Chinese cruising outside Asia
                                                                                    • Tours customised for Chinese
                                                                                    • Covering the Cost of Connectivity

                                                                                        • All change for pricing structure
                                                                                          • Connectivity the spur for cruise sales
                                                                                            • Revenue earner that reduces bandwidth demand
                                                                                              • Gaming the big prize
                                                                                              • Turning Millennials into Cruisers

                                                                                                  • Millennials to overtake Boomers
                                                                                                    • Online travel agents set to benefit
                                                                                                      • Reality TV now an option
                                                                                                      • Barriers to Entry

                                                                                                          • Two start-ups in one year
                                                                                                            • Virgin entry positive for the sector
                                                                                                              • Viking’s ambitious fleet plans
                                                                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                  • Ibiza, Mykonos and Vegas the inspirations
                                                                                                                    • Taking a lead from TV
                                                                                                                      • Digital future for brochures
                                                                                                                        • Booking direct – The next step?
                                                                                                                        • The Top Four Cruise Companies

                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Top 4 cruise companies by capacity, 2016-20
                                                                                                                          • Carnival Corporation & plc

                                                                                                                              • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                • Ownership
                                                                                                                                  • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 98: Carnival Corporation & plc’s results, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                  • Fuel-cost impact turns positive
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 99: Carnival’s fuel consumption & cost, 2010-15
                                                                                                                                  • First touchdown at Super Bowl
                                                                                                                                    • Asia and Australia increasing share
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 100: Carnival’s revenues by area of passenger sourcing, 2013-15
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Carnival’s revenues by regional brands, 2013-15
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 102: Carnival’s operating incomes by brands, 2013-15
                                                                                                                                    • Brands
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 103: Brands owned by Carnival Corporation & plc, their major markets & market sector, 2016
                                                                                                                                  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCC)

                                                                                                                                      • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                        • Ownership
                                                                                                                                          • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 104: Royal Caribbean Cruises’ results, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                          • Double, double promise under threat
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Brands owned by Royal Caribbean Cruises, their major markets & market sector, 2016
                                                                                                                                          • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

                                                                                                                                              • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                                • Ownership
                                                                                                                                                  • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 106: NCL Holdings’ results, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                                  • Brands
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 107: Brands owned by NCLH, 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Financial headwinds halt progress of three-brand operator
                                                                                                                                                    • Other brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 108: Key brands (prime source markets & market sectors) not owned by Carnival, RCC, NCLH or MSC, 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Cruise Product Niches

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 109: New ships by product sector, 2001-24
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 110: Average capacity of ships, 2000-20
                                                                                                                                                    • Contemporary brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Royal Caribbean International (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Royal Caribbean International’s fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Carnival Cruise Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Carnival Cruise Lines’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Norwegian Cruise Line’s fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Costa Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Costa Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • MSC Cruises
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: MSC Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • AIDA Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Aida Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Disney Cruise Line
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Disney Cruise Line’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Star Cruises (Genting Hong Kong)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Star Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                      • Budget brands
                                                                                                                                                        • Pullmantur Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 119: Pullmantur Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • P&O Cruises Australia (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 120: P&O Cruises Australia’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Thomson Cruises (TUI)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 121: Thomson Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Celestyal Cruises (Louis Cruises)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Celestyal Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Cruise & Maritime Voyages (Global Maritime Group)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Cruise & Maritime Voyages’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Voyages of Discovery (All Leisure Group)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Voyages of Discovery’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                        • Other Budget brands
                                                                                                                                                          • Premium brands
                                                                                                                                                            • Princess Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 126: Princess Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • Holland America Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 127: Holland America Line’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • Celebrity Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 128: Celebrity Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • P&O Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 129: P&O Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • TUI Cruises (RCC JV)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 130: TUI Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • Cunard Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 131: Cunard Line’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • Saga Cruises
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 132: Saga Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • New name joins other Premium brands
                                                                                                                                                              • Premium-plus brands
                                                                                                                                                                • Oceania Cruises (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 133: Oceania Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                • Viking Ocean Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 134: Viking Ocean Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                • Azamara Club Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 135: Azamara Club Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                • Luxury brands
                                                                                                                                                                  • Silversea Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 136: Silversea Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Crystal Cruises (Genting Hong Kong)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 137: Crystal Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Seabourn Cruise Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 138: Seabourn Cruise Line’s fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Regent Seven Seas Cruises (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 139: Regent Seven Seas Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Hapag-Lloyd Cruises (TUI)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 140: Hapag-Lloyd Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Windstar Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 141: Windstar Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Ponant Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 142: Ponant Cruises’ fleet, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Top cruise brands fill shipbuilder slots to 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 143: Top 20 cruise brands, by current & ordered capacity, 2016-20
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 144: Global cruise capacity & passenger growth, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                                                  • What Next?

                                                                                                                                                                      • Carnival gambles on LNG alternative
                                                                                                                                                                        • All-inclusivity by stealth
                                                                                                                                                                          • Mega-ships dictating changes in ship design
                                                                                                                                                                            • Action on people-pollution threat to marquee ports

                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                            Cruises - June 2016

                                                                                                                                                                            US $1,935.88 (Excl.Tax)