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Cruises - UK - April 2012

“Potential new cruisers are already very receptive to the idea that these holidays are a great way of visiting and exploring places. Mintel’s research shows that where the ‘potentials’ differ from experienced cruisers is in their much lower level of awareness of the quality of onboard facilities. Rising fuel costs and environmental regulations are likely to lead to lower speeds, more time at sea and shorter itineraries. The focus on the onboard experience is likely to increase further and needs greater promotion to build consumer awareness but a balance between destination and ship needs to be struck.”

– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • Short-haul and domestic holidays are currently growing while long-haul is struggling. How will this affect cruise?
  • How important is the onboard experience, compared to the itinerary?
  • What is the best way to market to non-cruisers?
  • What is the relationship between sea cruises and river cruises?
  • What is the scope for a ‘green cruise’ brand?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Volume forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
              • Figure 2: Value forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
            • Recession-proof cruise
              • UK departures drive growth
                • Figure 3: Ex-UK and fly-cruises taken, by volume, 2006-11
                • Figure 4: Volume of ocean cruise passengers, by destination, 2006-11
              • But (temporary) slowdown expected
                • European river cruise market expanding
                  • Market factors
                    • New ship supply
                      • Concordia disaster sparks safety review
                        • Figure 5: Annual average Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
                      • Demographic boost
                        • Companies, brands and innovation
                          • Carnival is the global leader
                            • Floating resorts
                              • New itineraries – near and far
                                • Talent contests and celebrity chefs
                                  • Online cruise tools
                                    • The consumer
                                      • Cruises peak among 65-74s
                                        • Figure 6: Cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                      • A third of adults are potential cruisers
                                        • The Marmite holiday
                                          • Figure 7: Reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
                                        • Concordia accident deters few
                                          • Figure 8: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, February 2012
                                        • Destination, destination, destination
                                          • Sociable, hassle-free
                                            • Onboard perceptions split
                                              • Over land and sea
                                                • Special-occasion families
                                                  • What we think
                                                  • Issues in the Market

                                                      • Short-haul and domestic holidays are currently growing while long-haul is struggling. How will this affect cruise?
                                                        • How important is the onboard experience, compared to the itinerary?
                                                          • What is the best way to market to non-cruisers?
                                                            • What is the relationship between sea cruises and river cruises?
                                                              • What is the scope for a ‘green cruise’ brand?
                                                              • Future Opportunities

                                                                  • Trend: Slow It All Down
                                                                    • Trend: Click And Connect
                                                                    • Internal Market Environment

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Travel market age shift
                                                                          • Figure 9: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
                                                                          • Figure 10: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2006-11
                                                                        • Package capacity declining
                                                                          • Figure 11: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays, by volume, 2006-11
                                                                        • Nearcation trend
                                                                          • Figure 12: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2006-11
                                                                        • Two thirds of adults take holidays
                                                                          • Figure 13: Percentage of adults taking a holiday or short break in the last 12 months, 2009-11
                                                                          • Figure 14: Total number of trips taken in the last 12 months, by destination, 2010 and 2011
                                                                        • Cruise ship supply
                                                                          • Figure 15: Global supply of new cruise ships, 2008-13
                                                                        • The Concordia tragedy
                                                                          • Fuel pressure
                                                                            • Figure 16: Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
                                                                          • Emission control
                                                                            • Antarctica changes
                                                                              • Sustainability challenge
                                                                                • Commission cuts
                                                                                • Broader Market Environment

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Inflation drops but growth still stuttering
                                                                                      • Figure 17: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q4 2011
                                                                                      • Figure 18: UK Consumer Confidence Index, March 2011-February 2012
                                                                                    • Over-55 boost
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
                                                                                    • Older singles market set to grow
                                                                                      • Figure 20: Forecast percentage change in adult population, by marital status and age, for England and Wales, 2008-33
                                                                                    • AB growth
                                                                                      • Figure 21: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                                                                    • Weak Pound goes further at sea
                                                                                      • Figure 22: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007-11
                                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Growing niche
                                                                                        • Figure 23: All holidays and cruises, by volume and value, 2006-11
                                                                                      • Package context
                                                                                        • Figure 24: All package holidays and cruises, by volume and value, 2006-11
                                                                                      • Fragmented holiday types
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Types of holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • New launches
                                                                                          • New UK-UK itineraries
                                                                                            • Beyond Europe
                                                                                              • Rail-sail
                                                                                                • Themed cruises
                                                                                                  • Online cruise tools
                                                                                                    • Taking the tablets
                                                                                                      • River of Gold
                                                                                                        • Boating in the buff
                                                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Recession-proof market
                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Sea cruise volume, value and average spend, 2006-16
                                                                                                            • Growth to slow in 2012...
                                                                                                              • ...but few clouds on the horizon
                                                                                                                • Rising river market to recover from Arab Spring
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: River cruise volume, value and average spend, 2009-12
                                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Volume forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Value forecast of sea cruise holidays, 2006-16
                                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Home ports drive growth
                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Ex-UK and fly-cruises taken, by volume, 2006-11
                                                                                                                    • Cruising closer to home
                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Volume of sea cruise passengers, by destination from UK, 2006-11
                                                                                                                    • Voyages of discovery
                                                                                                                      • Ultra-luxury growth
                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Volume of ultra-luxury* cruises taken, 2006-11
                                                                                                                      • Average cruising age gets older
                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Age analysis of cruise holidaymakers, 2000-11*
                                                                                                                      • Sea virgins
                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: First-time cruisers as percentage of UK market, 2006-11
                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Number of cruises taken in the last year, 2008-11
                                                                                                                      • High-spending holidaymakers
                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Total amount spent on holidays (5 days or more) for self and family in the last 12 months, 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Total amount spent on sea cruise holidays (5 days or more) for self and family in the last 12 months, 2011
                                                                                                                      • European river market expanding
                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: River cruise volume, by region, 2009-11
                                                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Carnival in cruise control
                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Number of vessels and passenger capacity, by operator, March 2012
                                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                          • Carnival Corporation & plc
                                                                                                                            • Cunard Line
                                                                                                                              • New kind of luxury
                                                                                                                                • P&O Cruises
                                                                                                                                  • New developments
                                                                                                                                    • Princess Cruises
                                                                                                                                      • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd
                                                                                                                                        • Royal Caribbean International
                                                                                                                                          • Ship classes
                                                                                                                                            • Onboard facilities
                                                                                                                                              • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                                                                                                • Azamara Club Cruises
                                                                                                                                                  • Silversea Cruises
                                                                                                                                                    • Putting it in perspective
                                                                                                                                                      • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines Ltd
                                                                                                                                                        • Traditional ethos
                                                                                                                                                          • Return to Liverpool
                                                                                                                                                            • Thomson Cruises
                                                                                                                                                              • New product development
                                                                                                                                                                • Hurtigruten
                                                                                                                                                                  • Award for best specialist
                                                                                                                                                                    • Viking River Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                      • Fleet development
                                                                                                                                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • High street is still critical for cruise research...
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Information sources used for holidays/short breaks, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • ...and eight in ten cruisers book via an agent
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Booking methods used by people who took at least one holiday/short break abroad during the year, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Booking methods used by people who took at least one sea cruise during the year, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Booking polarisation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: How long before holidays/short breaks the bookings were made, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: How long before cruise holidays the bookings were made, by percentage of bookings, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sea Cruise Experience and Intentions

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • A third of adults are potential cruisers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Empty nesters still dominate market
                                                                                                                                                                              • Need to target over-75s
                                                                                                                                                                              • River Cruise Experience and Intentions

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Crossing the streams
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: River cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • What Puts Non-Cruisers Off?

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cost and confinement
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Female security concerns
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cruise widow seeks boat buddy
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Blue rinse anxiety
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes Towards Cruise Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • One in nine adults put off cruising by Concordia tragedy
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Destination is still key
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sociable cruisers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hassle-free holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Best of both worlds
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Out of control
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Special-occasion families
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Forecast of sea cruise volume, best and worst case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Forecast of sea cruise value, best and worst case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Sea Cruise Experience and Intentions

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Sea cruises taken and future intentions, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – River Cruise Experience and Intentions

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: River cruises taken and future intentions, by sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: River cruises taken and future intentions, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – What Puts Non-Cruisers Off?

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Next most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Cruise Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by sea cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by river cruises taken and future intentions, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by next most popular reasons for not taking a cruise, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Other attitudes towards cruise holidays, by demographics, February 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carnival Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Condé Nast Publications Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cunard Line
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Holland America Line Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • News International PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • P&O Cruises
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Sunday Times
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Viking River Cruises

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cruises - UK - April 2012

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