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Cruises - UK - October 2014

“Cruise ships will continue on their evolutionary path from ships to hotels-at-sea to floating destinations, becoming as much a focal point as the places visited, with operators hoping that customers will be willing to trade some of the itinerary for a better on-board experience. This is a difficult balancing act though. The key selling point for cruise holidays remains the itinerary and it is doubtful how far this can be diluted without compromising the appeal of the product.”
– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

  • How might rising fuel costs re-shape the cruise product?
  • On which demographic groups should cruise brands concentrate their marketing resources?
  • What are the opportunities for river cruises?
  • How can cruise holidays appeal to AB independent travellers who would not normally consider a mainstream cruise?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Growth stalled but major capacity increase due in 2015
                • Figure 1: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
                • Figure 2: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
              • Full steam ahead for no-fly cruise
                • Figure 3: UK sea cruise market, fly cruises versus UK port departures, 2008-13
              • Market factors
                • Fuel challenge
                  • Ageing society offers big opportunity
                    • Figure 4: UK age group projections, 2014-2034
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • Figure 5: Top ten global cruise brands estimated share of global capacity, 2014
                  • New vessels offer high-tech and design-led approaches
                    • Co-creation cruise
                      • Excursions forced to raise their game
                        • The consumer
                          • Three in ten adults are would-be cruisers
                            • Figure 6: UK adults by sea cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
                          • The gastro-cruiser
                            • Figure 7: Influences on choosing a cruise holiday, July 2014
                          • UK port departures now more popular than fly-cruise
                            • Figure 8: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, July 2014
                          • Several holidays in one
                            • Figure 9: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, by ‘interested’ target groups July 2014
                          • What we think
                          • Issues and Insights

                              • How might rising fuel costs re-shape the cruise product?
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • On which demographic groups should cruise brands concentrate their marketing resources?
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • What are the opportunities for river cruises?
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • How can cruise holidays appeal to AB independent travellers who would not normally consider a mainstream cruise?
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                    • Trend Application

                                                        • Make it Mine
                                                          • Extend My Brand
                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Overseas holidays still some way off recovery
                                                                • Figure 10: Overseas holidays, volume and expenditure 2008-13
                                                                • Figure 11: Sterling exchange rate, 2009-14
                                                              • Oil price pressure eases…
                                                                • Figure 12: Brent Spot Oil Price, January 2000-June 2014
                                                              • … but new fuel challenges mounting
                                                                • APD reform offers boost to Caribbean cruises
                                                                  • Figure 13: Advanced Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2012-April 2015
                                                                • Cruise truce with agents
                                                                  • Ageing population promises cruise bonanza
                                                                    • Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2009-19
                                                                    • Figure 15: UK age group projections, based on 2012 population data, 2014-2034
                                                                  • Retirement & pension changes
                                                                    • Ageing singles growth
                                                                      • Figure 16: Projected singles population by age group, England & Wales, 2008-2033
                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Hi-tech cruise
                                                                        • Boutique Britannia
                                                                          • Metal mariners & crochet cruisers
                                                                            • DIY itineraries
                                                                              • Virtual cruising
                                                                                • Sea/land combo
                                                                                  • New wave of excursions
                                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Growth stalls but new supply boost in 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 17: UK sea cruise market volume and value, 2004-19
                                                                                      • Discounting rescues market from decline
                                                                                        • 2014 and beyond
                                                                                          • Forecast
                                                                                            • Figure 18: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
                                                                                            • Figure 19: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2014-19
                                                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • No fly cruise accounts for all growth since 2010
                                                                                                • Figure 20: UK sea cruise market, fly cruises versus UK port departures, 2008-13
                                                                                              • Norway becomes most popular no-fly destination
                                                                                                • Figure 21: UK sea cruise market, by destination, 2008-13
                                                                                              • Ultra-luxury cruise up 38% over past five years
                                                                                                • Figure 22: Volume of UK ultra-luxury cruises taken, 2008-13
                                                                                              • The age of cruisers gets higher
                                                                                                • Figure 23: Age analysis of cruise holidaymakers, 2006-13*
                                                                                              • The multiple cruiser
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Number of cruises taken in the last year (%), 2008-13
                                                                                              • Late booking trend
                                                                                                • Figure 25: How long before cruise holidays bookings were made, by percentage of bookings, 2006-13
                                                                                              • Take me to the river
                                                                                                • Figure 26: UK river cruise market, passenger volume by destination, 2009-13
                                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Overall supply
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Estimated global cruise industry capacity (number of berths), 2014-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
                                                                                                • Carnival controls six out of top ten brands
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Top ten global cruise brands by estimated capacity (number of berths), 2008-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
                                                                                                • UK-based brands
                                                                                                  • New entrants
                                                                                                    • Viking invasion
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Selected leading river cruise brands by estimated capacity, 2008-18, as at 1st quarter 2014
                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Cruise advertising
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Top 20 cruise advertisers, by brand, 2012-14
                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Cruise advertising expenditure, by media type, 2012-14
                                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • Carnival Corporation
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Key financials for Carnival Corporation, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                        • Selected Carnival brands
                                                                                                          • Holland America Line
                                                                                                            • Princess Cruises
                                                                                                              • P&O Cruises
                                                                                                                • Royal Caribbean Cruises limited
                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Key financials for Royal Caribbean Cruises ltd, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                                • Selected Royal Caribbean brands
                                                                                                                  • Royal Caribbean International
                                                                                                                    • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                                                                      • MSC Cruises
                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: MSC Cruises Limited key financials 201213
                                                                                                                      • Hurtigruten
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Key financials for Hurtigruten Group, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                                        • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Key financials for Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines ltd, 2011-12
                                                                                                                          • Viking River Cruises
                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Key financials for Viking River Cruises, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                                        • Sea & River Cruise Taking

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, July 2014
                                                                                                                          • A third of adults interested in cruising
                                                                                                                            • Cruise groups
                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: UK adults by sea cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: UK adults by river cruise holiday target groups, July 2014
                                                                                                                            • Important Factors in Choosing a Cruise

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Dining experience is critical success factor
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Influences on choosing a cruise holiday, July 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Important factors in choosing a cruise by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
                                                                                                                                • Value of excursions
                                                                                                                                  • Family favourites
                                                                                                                                    • Room with a view
                                                                                                                                    • Interest in Taking Different Types of Cruise

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • No fly cruise is now most popular
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, July 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Pushing the boat out
                                                                                                                                          • Mini-cruise potential
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Interest in taking different types of cruise by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Demographic factors
                                                                                                                                            • Child-free cruising
                                                                                                                                              • Best of both worlds
                                                                                                                                              • Preferred Sea Cruise Destinations

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Caribbean is dream destination
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Most popular sea cruise destinations, July 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Preferred sea cruise destinations by Satisfied Cruisers and New Potentials, July 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Preferred sea cruise destinations by lifestage groups, July 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes towards Cruises

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Expensive exploration
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Attitudes towards cruise holidays, July 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards cruise holidays by target groups, July 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Variety is spice of cruising life
                                                                                                                                                      • Awareness gap re on-board experience
                                                                                                                                                        • Restrictiveness a key deterrent
                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic factors

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          • Carnival Corporation
                                                                                                                                                          • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Channel 4
                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                                                          • Holland America Line Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Hurtigruten
                                                                                                                                                          • ITV plc
                                                                                                                                                          • P&O Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Princess Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                          • Viking River Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                          Cruises - UK - October 2014

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