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Cruises - UK - October 2016

“Increased capacity meant the cruise market enjoyed excellent growth in 2015. Capacity will expand even further over the next few years meaning travel brands have a great opportunity to target affluent ABs and older consumers who make up the bulk of cruisers.”
– Fergal McGivney, Travel Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Research suggests more could be done to encourage families to cruise
  • For cruising, travel agents are well placed to offer their expertise

This Report analyses key market drivers and trends, and looks at leading operators, product innovation, projected forecasts and detailed consumer analysis including sea and river cruise holidays taken, interest in taking a sea or river cruise, interest in different cruise types, booking methods for cruises and general attitudes towards cruises.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Scope of the Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • A relatively positive outlook towards 2021
              • Figure 1: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2011-21
              • Figure 2: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2011-21
            • The consumer
              • Proportion of people cruising rises in the last two years
                • Figure 3: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, July 2014 versus August 2016
              • Sea cruises more appealing than river cruises
                • Figure 4: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, August 2016
              • Mini-cruises appeal to the time-poor middle-aged
                • Figure 5: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, August 2014
              • Millennials want connectivity
                • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cruises, August 2016
              • What we think
              • Issues and Insights

                • Research suggests more could be done to encourage families to cruise
                  • The facts
                    • The implications
                      • For cruising, travel agents are well placed to offer their expertise
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • Increased capacity leads to strong growth in 2015
                              • Fly-and-cruise losing market share to port departures
                                • Luxury cruise market to remain strong
                                  • Cruise liners must abide by new environmental standards
                                    • Ageing UK population presents opportunities
                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                      • Slow growth predicted but relatively positive outlook
                                          • Figure 7: UK sea cruise market passenger volume and value, 2011-21
                                          • Figure 8: Volume forecast of sea cruises, 2011-21
                                          • Figure 9: Value forecast of sea cruises, 2011-21
                                        • Forecast methodology
                                        • Market Segmentation

                                          • Port departure cruises gained market share in 2015
                                            • Figure 10: UK sea cruise market, fly cruises versus UK port departures, 2008-15
                                            • Figure 11: UK sea cruise market, by destination, 2008-15
                                          • Ultra-luxury cruises continue to grow
                                            • Figure 12: Volume of UK ultra-luxury cruises passengers, 2010-15
                                          • Average age of cruisers falls to 55 in 2015
                                            • Figure 13: Age analysis of cruise holidaymakers, 2005-15*
                                          • More consumers are taking multiple cruises
                                            • Figure 14: Number of cruises taken in the last year (%), 2008-15
                                        • Brexit and the Cruise Market

                                          • The impact of the EU referendum vote
                                            • Cruise spend has been resilient during previous slowdowns
                                              • Figure 15: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit cruise market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                              • Figure 16: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the cruise market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                            • Brexit uncertainty for holidaymakers
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • Core targets for cruises are confident following the Brexit result
                                                • Figure 17: How respondents would describe their financial situation, by age, July 2016
                                                • Figure 18: Consumers’ financial outlook for the coming year, by age, July 2016
                                              • All-inclusive deals can soften the effects of a weak Pound
                                                • Figure 19: Sterling exchange rate, 23 June-29 September 2016
                                              • Post Office Worldwide Cost Barometer reveals cheapest destinations
                                                • Figure 20: Post Office Worldwide Cost Barometer 2016
                                              • Changing emissions rules mean cruise liners must adapt
                                                • Low oil price good news for cruise liners
                                                  • Figure 21: Weekly Europe Brent Spot (Dollars per Barrel), September 2011-September 2016
                                                • APD cuts benefit fly-and-cruise market
                                                  • Figure 22: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates, April 2012-April 2017
                                                • Ageing UK population presents cruise opportunities
                                                • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Carnival Corporation dominates
                                                    • Better than expected capacity growth by 2020
                                                      • Carnival Corporation partners with Airbnb
                                                        • Royal Caribbean International to add Cuba to itinerary
                                                          • New ships in the pipeline for P&O
                                                            • Celebrity Solstice ship set to unveil another outdoor cinema screen
                                                            • Cruise Companies and Market Share

                                                              • Cruise capacity expected to grow for the big four cruise operators
                                                                • Figure 23: Top four cruise companies, by capacity, 2016 and 2020
                                                              • Carnival Corporation
                                                                • Selected Carnival Corporation brands
                                                                  • Princess Cruises
                                                                    • P&O
                                                                      • Royal Caribbean Cruises Limited
                                                                        • Selected Royal Caribbean brands
                                                                          • Royal Caribbean International
                                                                            • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                              • Carnival Corporation partners with Airbnb to promote its Fathom brand
                                                                                • Royal Caribbean International plans to add Cuba to itinerary
                                                                                  • The Cruise returns to ITV next year
                                                                                    • Fred Olsen banks on bricks-and-mortar
                                                                                      • New environmentally friendly ships on order for P&O
                                                                                        • Celebrity Cruises ship set to unveil another outdoor cinema screen
                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                          • Consumers’ interest in cruises rises over the past two years
                                                                                            • Millennials are really keen on taking a cruise
                                                                                              • Sea cruises are twice as popular as river cruises
                                                                                                • Middle-aged consumers are interested in mini-cruises
                                                                                                  • Direct and high street bookings evenly split for cruises
                                                                                                    • Consumers want all-inclusive deals to help them monitor spending
                                                                                                    • Cruise Taking

                                                                                                      • More consumers show interest in cruising
                                                                                                        • Cruises particularly popular amongst widowed/separated older women
                                                                                                          • The senior influencer
                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, July 2014 versus August 2016
                                                                                                        • Interest in Cruises by Age

                                                                                                          • Young holidaymakers are still keen on cruises
                                                                                                            • Appealing to Millennials; cruise liners coming into the 21st century
                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, by age, August 2016
                                                                                                            • Sea Cruises

                                                                                                              • Sea cruises more appealing than river cruises
                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Sea and river cruises, previous experience and future intentions, August 2016
                                                                                                              • Sea cruiser profile
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Sea cruises, previous experience and future intentions, by age, August 2016
                                                                                                              • River Cruises

                                                                                                                • River cruiser profile
                                                                                                                  • River cruising as a taster for Millennials
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: River cruises, previous experience and future intentions, by age, August 2016
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Proportion of holidaymakers who take city breaks, by age, August 2016
                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: UK river cruise market passenger volume, by destination, 2011-15
                                                                                                                • Interest in Cruise Types

                                                                                                                  • Mini-cruises interest the 45-54 age group
                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, August 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Interest in taking particular types of cruise holiday, longer cruise versus mini-cruise, August 2016
                                                                                                                  • Appealing to parents aged 35-44
                                                                                                                    • Silver Splitter presents opportunities for cruise operators
                                                                                                                    • Booking Method for Cruises

                                                                                                                      • Travel agents remain important for cruisers
                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Method of booking last cruise, August 2016
                                                                                                                      • Cruises around twice as likely to book offline
                                                                                                                        • A quarter of cruisers research on comparison sites before booking
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Behaviours related to cruises, August 2016
                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards Cruises

                                                                                                                        • All-inclusive deals will give consumers peace of mind
                                                                                                                          • Families really keen on all-inclusive deals
                                                                                                                            • Connectivity is important for Millennials
                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Attitudes towards cruises, August 2016
                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast for cruise passenger volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast for cruise market value, 2016-21

                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                  • Carnival Corporation
                                                                                                                                  • Celebrity Cruises
                                                                                                                                  • P&O Cruises
                                                                                                                                  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

                                                                                                                                  Cruises - UK - October 2016

                                                                                                                                  US $2,672.70 (Excl.Tax)