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Cruises - US - October 2015

"Recent growth in the North American cruise market has come primarily from increased frequency of cruising by core cruising consumers, who are largely affluent and 55+, rather than by growing the number of cruisers. The industry needs to attract the new and younger cruisers who could ensure future demand keeps apace of supply growth."

- Fiona O'Donnell, Category Manager

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Frequent cruisers dominate the market; brands struggle to recruit new cruisers
  • Safety concerns linger among younger cruisers
  • The tyranny of increasing expectations
  • Despite added capacity, ships go out full

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Frequent cruisers dominate the market; brands struggle to recruit new cruisers
            • Figure 1: Past three-year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
          • Safety concerns linger among younger cruisers
            • Figure 2: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by age, June 2015
          • The tyranny of increasing expectations
            • Figure 3: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
          • Despite added capacity, ships go out full
            • Figure 4: New North American cruise ship capacity, new berths by year, 2011-18
          • The opportunities
            • New travel patterns offer access to new cruisers
              • Figure 5: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by contemporary/premium lines, June 2015
            • Getting non-cruisers to see the value proposition
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
            • Better use of technology key to long-term growth
              • Figure 7: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Cruise market booming
                • Caribbean still king but rivers see fastest growth
                  • Despite added capacity, ships go out full
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • North American cruisers’ expenditures to double from 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total sales and fan chart forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total sales and forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Bahamas number one destination, and growing
                      • Figure 10: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2015 vs 2008
                    • River and specialty cruises growing fast, gaining market share
                      • Longer cruises mean higher fares
                        • Figure 11: Breakdown of average cruise spending, 2010-15
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Cruise spending outpaces total leisure spending
                        • Frequent cruisers boost US market
                          • Figure 12: Past three-year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
                        • Ships go out full . . .
                          • . . . and keep getting bigger
                            • Per-cruise spending by US cruisers trending stabilizing
                              • Figure 13: Amount spent per person on most recent cruise, 2008-15
                          • Market Factors

                            • Cruise lines shift resources to Asia
                              • Figure 14: International tourism expenditures by five highest-spending countries, 2013-14
                            • Continued strong growth in 55+ population
                              • Figure 15: US population by age, 2010-20
                            • Growth of high-income population
                              • Figure 16: Share of US households with income $150K+, 2008-14
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Carnival still dominant, but Norwegian growing share
                              • Industry struggles to attract new cruisers
                                • Future of cruises includes better technology and dynamic pricing
                                • Profile of Leading Cruise Brands

                                  • Leading contemporary brands
                                    • Carnival Cruise Line
                                      • Royal Caribbean International
                                        • Norwegian Cruise Line
                                          • Leading premium brands
                                            • Princess Cruises
                                              • Holland America Line
                                                • Celebrity Cruises
                                                  • Leading specialty cruise line
                                                    • Disney Cruise Line
                                                      • Norwegian sees growing penetration
                                                        • Figure 17: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2015 vs 2008
                                                    • What’s Working?

                                                      • Ships continue to add novel features
                                                        • Themed cruises help brands to attract new cruisers
                                                          • River cruises continue to grow in popularity
                                                            • Cruises to festivals and events
                                                              • Brand partnerships thrive
                                                              • What’s Struggling?

                                                                • Brands work to acquire new cruisers
                                                                  • Health and safety concerns linger
                                                                  • What’s Next?

                                                                    • More attention to large and small travel parties
                                                                      • Themed cruises aimed at Boomers and Millennials
                                                                        • More tinkering with pricing
                                                                          • More brands fully embrace technology
                                                                            • Small ships stage a comeback
                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Contemporary lines dominant
                                                                                • Despite skewing older, cruisers are active vacationers
                                                                                  • Safety concerns linger, but value a bigger concern
                                                                                    • New travel patterns and increasing expectations challenge cruise lines
                                                                                    • Past Cruising Experience

                                                                                        • Carnival and Royal Caribbean dominant brands
                                                                                          • Figure 18: Past cruising experience, by cruise line, June 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Past cruising experience, June 2015
                                                                                        • Carnival leads in diversity
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Past five-year cruising experience, by cruise line, race, and Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                      • Profile of Cruisers

                                                                                        • Seniors, high-income groups, Blacks, and Asians most likely to cruise
                                                                                            • Figure 21: Profile of cruisers, by age, household income, race, and Hispanic origin, February 2014-March 2015
                                                                                          • Life changes and cruising go together
                                                                                            • Figure 22: Profile of cruisers, by recent life events, February 2014-March 2015
                                                                                        • Cruise Line Most Recently Used

                                                                                            • Contemporary lines capture 62% of most recent cruises
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Cruise line most recently used, June 2015
                                                                                            • Royal Caribbean customers more likely to cruise again
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Plans to cruise in the next 12 months, by sole cruise line used in the last three years, February 2014-March 2015
                                                                                            • Carnival and Disney lead with young adults
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Cruise line most recently used, by age and household income, June 2015
                                                                                            • Married couples without kids favor premium lines
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Cruise line most recently used, by marital status and presence of children in household, June 2015
                                                                                            • Black consumers flock to Carnival
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Cruise line most recently used, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                          • Most Recent Cruise Destination and Destinations of Interest

                                                                                              • Cruisers dream of Hawaii but visit the Bahamas
                                                                                                • Figure 28: Most recent cruise destination, by cruise destinations of interest, June 2015
                                                                                              • Cruisers favor destinations they have visited recently
                                                                                                • Figure 29: Cruise destinations of interest, by most recent cruise destination, June 2015
                                                                                              • Young adults favor nearby destinations
                                                                                                • Figure 30: Most recent cruise destination, by age, June 2015
                                                                                              • Interest in cruising peaks among 35-54s
                                                                                                • Figure 31: Cruise destinations of interest, by age, June 2015
                                                                                              • Bahamas hold appeal for all income groups
                                                                                                • Figure 32: Most recent cruise destination, by household income, June 2015
                                                                                            • Brand Attributes

                                                                                                • Royal Caribbean and Disney most admired brands
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Cruise lines – Positive brand attributes, June 2015
                                                                                                  • Disney’s prices discourage some
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Cruise lines – Negative brand attributes, June 2015
                                                                                                  • Seniors value brands for quality and reliability
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Cruise lines positive brand association, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                  • English-dominant Hispanics enthusiastic about cruise brands
                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Cruise lines positive brand associations, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                • Primary Reason for Most Recent Cruise

                                                                                                    • Group and solo travel increasingly important
                                                                                                      • Multigenerational travel a growing segment
                                                                                                        • Solo travel gaining acceptance
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by contemporary/premium lines, June 2015
                                                                                                        • Group and solo travel offers brands exposure to younger cruisers
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                        • More Hispanic cruisers travel solo or with corporate groups
                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                        • Both single and married cruisers travel without family
                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by marital status and presence of children in household, June 2015
                                                                                                      • The Cruising Experience – Onboard Amenities

                                                                                                          • Premium line cruisers more satisfied
                                                                                                            • Figure 41: The cruising experience – Onboard amenities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
                                                                                                          • Recent cruisers want more activities from Disney and Carnival
                                                                                                            • Figure 42: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
                                                                                                          • Seniors happy with dining and entertainment
                                                                                                            • Figure 43: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                          • Hispanics not content to relax in a deck chair
                                                                                                            • Figure 44: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                          • Couples without children most satisfied with cruises
                                                                                                            • Figure 45: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by marital status and presence of children, June 2015
                                                                                                        • The Cruising Experience – Planning and Booking

                                                                                                            • Travel agents still important to cruise industry
                                                                                                                • Figure 46: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
                                                                                                              • Travel agents have influence with 55+ cruisers
                                                                                                                • Figure 47: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                              • More Hispanics book at the last minute
                                                                                                                • Figure 48: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                            • The Cruising Experience – Mobile and Social

                                                                                                                • Disney leading in social media engagement
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
                                                                                                                  • Men most interested in cruise line apps
                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by gender and age, June 2015
                                                                                                                    • Hispanics engage via social media
                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                                  • Attitudes toward Cruising – Value

                                                                                                                      • Cruises provide better value
                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
                                                                                                                      • Younger cruisers see value but hate hidden costs
                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                                      • Dads find good deals on cruises
                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by parental status by gender, June 2015
                                                                                                                      • Hispanics likely to share good deals
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                                    • Attitudes toward Cruising – Safety

                                                                                                                        • Safety and hygiene concerns linger
                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
                                                                                                                        • Safety fears plague younger cruisers
                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                                        • Cruise lines can reassure parents that safety is a priority
                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by gender and parental status, June 2015
                                                                                                                        • Hispanics worry about safety
                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                                      • Attitudes toward Cruising – Personality

                                                                                                                          • Cruisers see themselves as active and outgoing
                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
                                                                                                                          • Some older cruisers not looking for novelty
                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                                          • Cruising parents especially active and extroverted
                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by gender and parental status, June 2015
                                                                                                                          • Hispanics seek new adventures
                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                                        • Attitudes toward Cruising – Travel Preferences

                                                                                                                            • Cruisers look for novelty, activity and itineraries
                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
                                                                                                                            • Under-35s seek novelty and action
                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by age, June 2015
                                                                                                                            • Dads want to see new places on a schedule
                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by gender and parental status, June 2015
                                                                                                                            • Scheduling tools an opportunity with Hispanics
                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                                                                                          • Consumer Segmentation

                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Cruise segments, June 2015
                                                                                                                              • Avid Cruisers
                                                                                                                                • Demographics
                                                                                                                                  • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                      • Aspirational Cruisers
                                                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                              • Selective Cruisers
                                                                                                                                                • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                  • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                        • Sales data
                                                                                                                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                  • Terms
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Market

                                                                                                                                                                    • Market size and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Total sales and forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                    • Market breakdown
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                    • Market perspective
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Value sales for vacations and tourism, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Value sales for leisure and entertainment, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Past three year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Amount spent per person on most recent cruise, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                    • Market factors
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: US population by age, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Key Players

                                                                                                                                                                    • Profile of leading cruise brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                    • Trends 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Cruise ship vacation in the last three years, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Plans to take a cruise ship vacation in the next 12 months, by all and past cruisers, 2008-15
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand attributes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Cruise lines brand attributes, June 2015

                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                  To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                  Cruises - US - October 2015

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