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The Worldwide Cruise Market - September 2012

As a result, there is scarcely a natural, climatic or geopolitical event anywhere in the world that does not have an impact on a part of its operations. Similarly, quantum leaps in its operational costs – notably, but not exclusively, fuel – now threaten its business model. At the same time, its growth, although to a size still small in global industry terms, has brought it to the attention of regulators, legislators and tax-hungry politicians just about everywhere.

Consequently, from being an industry in the 1980s, 1990s and even the early part of the 2000s that was mostly focused on transforming the product with a succession of ‘wow’ factors in entertainment and dining on a series of ever-larger ships, its focus has been quite radically altered. It now spends much more of its time dealing with regulatory, taxation, environmental, and health and safety issues. One top executive likened running a major cruise company nowadays to administering a small country with entire departments filled with specialists in law, taxation, the environment, government affairs and even communicable diseases.

These are also part of a broader group within the company on 24-hour call to form a task force whenever there is a major crisis looming that could impact the company’s operations. Such crises are normally unpredictable but the industry does recognise that it faces at least three major challenges – one short-term and two long-term.

In the short term, it must overcome the wave of negative publicity – and subsequent loss of consumer confidence – surrounding the Costa Concordia accident and resulting passenger/crew fatalities. The accident has also reinvigorated critics of the industry globally and not just on safety issues but also on tax and, in particular, environmental issues. In the longer term, the industry faces the same problem as all (not just travel) leisure products in the many parts of the world where economies have struggled since the 2008 credit crunch: it has to compete for what is now a declining pool of disposable income available to consumers and needs to find new ways to attract sales without moving into an endless cycle of discounting. Perhaps the most pressing long-term issue, however, is the rising cost of fuel, which will only be accelerated by the series of environmental regulations being introduced locally, regionally, nationally and globally through to 2015, 2020 and most likely beyond.

This report assesses the industry’s options and likely strategies to maintain its current level of growth while improving profitability in the face of all these challenges. It focuses – inter alia – on:

This report covers:

  • The recent and ongoing financial performances of the major companies and the likely trend in these moving forward in the light of the Costa Concordia impact and the financial troubles of the economies in major source markets
  • Individual initiatives by brands to differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive arena by building new classes of ship and retro-fitting their most popular features as part of the staged revitalisation of their existing fleets
  • The prospects for expanding existing major source markets (North America, the UK and Continental Europe) and for developing emerging ones such as China, Brazil and South Africa
  • The importance of economic impact studies in influencing political and public opinion and in attracting financing for the cruise port infrastructure development required to service the increasingly large and sophisticated ships being deployed
  • The prospects for the small band of European specialist cruise shipbuilders (Fincantieri, Meyer Werft, STX Europe) as they see orderbooks reduced for the foreseeable future and the imminent threat from Asia shipbuilders such as Mitsubishi in Japan and new entrants from China and South Korea

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Ticket prices hit by Concordia and ailing economies
        • Building up to 30 million passengers
          • Looking East for growth
            • Cruise-sector fillip for weak European economies
              • Asian threat becoming real for European shipbuilders
                • The industry at a glance
                  • Abbreviations
                  • Data Sources

                    • Overview

                        • Concordia accident: one-off or game-changer?
                          • Damage limitation
                            • Fuel hits 2011 profits for major companies
                              • Figure 1: Carnival Corporation & plc results, 2008-11
                              • Figure 2: Carnival fuel consumption and cost, 2009-12
                              • Figure 3: Carnival revenues, by area of passenger sourcing, 2008-11
                              • Figure 4: Carnival revenues, by regional brands, 2009-11
                              • Figure 5: Carnival operating incomes, by brands, 2009-11
                              • Figure 6: Royal Caribbean Cruises results, 2008-11
                              • Figure 7: NCL Corporation results, 2008-11
                              • Figure 8: Regent Seven Seas Cruises’ financial results, 2010-11
                            • All bets for 2012 off in wake of Concordia and Eurozone crisis
                              • Figure 9: Carnival Corporation & Plc, Q1 2011-12
                              • Figure 10: Carnival Corporation & plc first-half results, 2011/12
                              • Figure 11: Royal Caribbean Cruises results, Q1 2011/12
                              • Figure 12: NCL Corporation results, Q1 2011/12
                          • Cruise Company Brands and their Product Niches

                              • Figure 13: New ships by product type, 2001-16
                              • Figure 14: Average capacity of ships, 2000-15
                              • Figure 15: Brands owned by the two major companies, as of September 2012
                              • Figure 16: Key brands not owned by Carnival/RCC, as of September 2012
                            • Contemporary brands
                              • Carnival Cruise Lines
                                • Figure 17: Carnival Cruise Lines’ fleet, September 2012
                              • Royal Caribbean International
                                • Figure 18: Royal Caribbean International’s fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                              • Costa Cruises
                                • Figure 19: Costa Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                              • MSC Cruises
                                • Figure 20: MSC Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                              • Norwegian Cruise Line
                                • Figure 21: Norwegian Cruise Line’s fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                              • AIDA Cruises
                                • Figure 22: Aida Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                              • Disney Cruise Line
                                • Figure 23: Disney Cruise Line’s fleet, September 2012
                              • Star Cruises
                                • Figure 24: Star Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                              • Other Contemporary brands
                                • Budget brands
                                  • Louis Cruises
                                    • Figure 25: Louis Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Fred.Olsen Cruise Lines
                                    • Figure 26: Fred.Olsen Cruise Lines’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Thomson Cruises
                                    • Figure 27: Thomson/Island Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Pullmantur Cruises
                                    • Figure 28: Pullmantur Cruise’s fleet, September 2012
                                  • P&O Cruises Australia
                                    • Figure 29: P&O Cruises’ Australia fleet, September 2012
                                  • Ibero Cruceros
                                    • Figure 30: Ibero Cruceros’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Classic International Cruises
                                    • Figure 31: Classic International Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Cruise & Maritime Voyages
                                    • Figure 32: Cruise & Maritime Voyages’ fleet, September 2012
                                  • Voyages of Discovery
                                    • Figure 33: Voyages of Discovery’s fleet, September 2012
                                  • Other Budget brands
                                    • Premium brands
                                      • Princess Cruises
                                        • Figure 34: Princess Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                                      • Holland America Line
                                        • Figure 35: Holland America Line’s fleet, September 2012
                                      • Celebrity Cruises
                                        • Figure 36: Celebrity Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                                      • P&O Cruises
                                        • Figure 37: P&O Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                                      • Cunard Line
                                        • Figure 38: Cunard Line’s fleet, September 2012
                                      • Saga Cruises
                                        • Figure 39: Saga Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                      • Other Premium brands
                                          • Figure 40: Star Clippers’ fleet, September 2012
                                          • Figure 41: Windstar Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                        • Premium-plus brands
                                          • Oceania Cruises
                                            • Figure 42: Oceania Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                          • Azmara Club Cruises
                                            • Figure 43: Azamara Club Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                          • Soft-adventure/expedition and sail/sail-assisted brands
                                            • Luxury brands
                                              • Silversea Cruises
                                                • Figure 44: Silversea Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                              • Crystal Cruises
                                                • Figure 45: Crystal Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                              • Seabourn Cruise Line
                                                • Figure 46: Seabourn Cruise Line’s fleet, September 2012
                                              • Regent Seven Seas Cruises
                                                • Figure 47: Regent Seven Seas Cruises’ fleet, September 2012
                                              • Hapag-Lloyd Cruises
                                                • Figure 48: Hapag-Lloyd Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, September 2012
                                              • Other Luxury brands
                                                • Brand and industry growth
                                                  • Figure 49: Top 20 cruise brands, by capacity, 2012/16
                                                  • Figure 50: The road to 30 million global cruise passengers, 2011-24
                                              • Global Changes to Drive Future Growth

                                                  • Figure 51: Ocean-cruise passengers worldwide, 2008-11
                                                  • Figure 52: Emerging Asian source markets in 2011
                                                • No limits to China’s cruise ambitions
                                                  • Figure 53: Chinese ocean-cruise passengers, 2005-11
                                                  • Figure 54: China cruise traffic, 2011
                                                  • Figure 55: Hong Kong-embarked cruise passengers, by nationality, 2011
                                                • Good cruise news for North American travel agents?
                                                    • Figure 56: CLIA travel agency affiliates, 1995-2012
                                                    • Figure 57: Travel agencies’ share of gross sales, 2009-13
                                                    • Figure 58: Use of travel agents in North America in 2011
                                                    • Figure 59: Use of agents to plan/book cruises (by generation), 2011
                                                    • Figure 60: Consumer rating of best service when booking cruises, 2004-11
                                                    • Figure 61: Consumers' best cruise-price expectation, 2004-11
                                                    • Figure 62: North American cruise agents' views on social media in 2011
                                                    • Figure 63: North American travel agents' views on social media that would most help their businesses, 2011
                                                    • Figure 64: The North American market’s awareness of cruising, 2011
                                                    • Figure 65: The North American market’s interest in taking a cruise, 2011
                                                    • Figure 66: The North American market’s first-timers and repeaters, 2004-11
                                                    • Figure 67: The North American market’s average number of cruises taken, 2004-11
                                                    • Figure 68: The North American cruise market’s projections, 2008-11
                                                    • Figure 69: Average cost of cruise bought by North Americans, 2006-11
                                                    • Figure 70: The North American cruise market*, 2002-11
                                                    • Figure 71: The North American river-cruise market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 72: CLIA brands’ sourcing trends, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 73: Cruise passenger embarkations at North American ports, 2008-11
                                                    • Figure 74: Brands operating cruises from North American ports, 2008-11
                                                    • Figure 75: Demographics of North American cruise passengers, 2002-11
                                                    • Figure 76: The North American cruise market’s capacity trends, 2007-14
                                                    • Figure 77: North American cruise passengers by top four states, 2004-10*
                                                    • Figure 78: Regional shares of North American cruise passengers, 1990-2010*
                                                    • Figure 79: Destination shares of North American cruise capacity, 2006-11
                                                    • Figure 80: Top cruise destinations for North American passengers from North American ports, 2007-11
                                                    • Figure 81: Cruise durations booked by North American passengers, 2000-11
                                                    • Figure 82: Revenues generated by CLIA brands, 2007-10
                                                  • CLIA brands drive European market growth
                                                    • Figure 83: The 5-year % growth of European cruise source markets, 2007-11
                                                    • Figure 84: Ocean-cruise market penetration, 2011
                                                    • Figure 85: North American and European cruise markets, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 86: The Western European cruise market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 87: Where Europeans cruise, 2007-10*
                                                    • Figure 88: European countries' share of cruise passengers, 2010-11
                                                  • Commission reduction gamble by Carnival UK
                                                      • Figure 89: UK cruise market, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 90: First-time cruisers as a share of the UK market, 2006-11
                                                      • Figure 91: Average revenue generated by UK passengers, 2008-11
                                                      • Figure 92: Luxury brands’ share of the UK cruise market*, 2008-11
                                                      • Figure 93: Average duration, in nights, of UK-booked cruises, 2004-11
                                                      • Figure 94: Average per diems on UK-booked cruises, 2004-11
                                                      • Figure 95: UK cruise-market price trends, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 96: UK-booked cruise durations by share, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 97: UK-UK cruises versus flycruises, 2004-11
                                                      • Figure 98: Top destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 99: Destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2007-11
                                                      • Figure 100: Passengers embarking at UK cruise ports, 2005-11
                                                      • Figure 101: Age profile of UK cruise passengers, 2000-11
                                                      • Figure 102: UK passengers booking multiple cruises in one year, 2008-11
                                                      • Figure 103: Booking lead-times for UK cruise market, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 104: The UK cruise sector's share of foreign holidays market, 2001-11
                                                      • Figure 105: The UK river-cruise market, 2009-11
                                                    • Germany en route to Number 1 in Europe
                                                      • Figure 106: The German cruise market, 2002-11
                                                      • Figure 107: European ocean-cruise passengers by country, 2006-11
                                                      • Figure 108: Key statistics of the German cruise market, 2009-11
                                                    • Italy – a year to recover?
                                                      • Figure 109: The Italian cruise market, 2004-11
                                                    • Spanish market resilient in face of economic disaster
                                                      • Figure 110: The Spanish cruise market, 2004-11
                                                    • France on the way up
                                                      • Figure 111: The French cruise market, 2004-11
                                                    • HAL leads Dutch surge
                                                      • Russian and Turkish growth expected but Greece stalls
                                                        • Port investment key to South African cruise tourism
                                                          • Latin America now a core market for cruise companies
                                                              • Figure 112: Emerging Latin American markets, 2011
                                                            • Australia to join millionaires’ club
                                                              • Figure 113: The Australian cruise market, 2004-11
                                                              • Figure 114: Leading cruise destinations for Australians, 2010-11
                                                            • New Zealand matches Australian increase
                                                              • Figure 115: The New Zealand cruise market, 2006-11
                                                              • Figure 116: Leading destinations for New Zealand passengers, 2010-11
                                                          • Greater Recognition for Economic Benefits From Cruise Tourism

                                                            • Growing market in Europe
                                                              • Figure 117: Total economic impact of European cruise sector, 2005-11
                                                              • Figure 118: Cruise-sector impact on European economies, 2008-11
                                                              • Figure 119: Benefits from cruise sector by country*, 2010-11
                                                              • Figure 120: Compensation from cruise companies by country*, 2008-11
                                                              • Figure 121: Passengers embarking at European ports, 2008-11
                                                              • Figure 122: Cruise passengers by European country of embarkation, 2010-11
                                                              • Figure 123: Cruise visitors to Europe, 2008-11
                                                              • Figure 124: Cruise visitors to European countries*, 2010-11
                                                              • Figure 125: Cruise passengers at Spanish ports, 2008-11
                                                              • Figure 126: Leading mediterranean homeports, 2008-11
                                                            • Baltic resumes growth as Northern Europe attracts more ships
                                                              • Figure 127: Cruise traffic to Baltic ports, 2001-11
                                                              • Figure 128: Cruise traffic at Norwegian ports, 2010-11
                                                              • Figure 129: Cruise traffic in Northern Europe, 2009-11
                                                              • Figure 130: Leading Northern European homeports, 2009-11
                                                              • Figure 131: Leading Northern European ports of call, 2009-11
                                                              • Figure 132: Cruise-visitor spending in Norway, by nationality, 2010
                                                            • Baltic impact
                                                              • Figure 133: Cruise turnarounds at Baltic ports, 2002-12
                                                              • Figure 134: Passenger spending* in Copenhagen, 2011
                                                              • Figure 135: Passenger/crew spending impact in/around Copenhagen, 2011
                                                              • Figure 136: Cruise industry economic impact on Copenhagen, 2010-12
                                                            • Strength in numbers for Atlantic ports in Northern Europe
                                                              • Figure 137: Cruise passengers at Atlantic Alliance ports, 2007-11
                                                              • Figure 138: Cruise traffic projected by Atlantic Alliance ports, 2011-12
                                                            • Cruising into Russia
                                                              • UK ports jockey for business
                                                                • Figure 139: Transit passengers at UK ports, 2005-11
                                                                • Figure 140: Passenger embarkations at UK ports, 2005-11
                                                              • New Sydney head tax threatens Australian growth
                                                                  • Figure 141: The Australian cruise-sector expenditure to 2020
                                                                  • Figure 142: The Australian cruise-sector value-added contribution to 2020
                                                                  • Figure 143: Profile of the Australian cruise industry, 2008-11
                                                                  • Figure 144: Impact of the cruise sector on the Australian economy, 2009-11
                                                                  • Figure 145: Cruise lines/crew/passenger spend in Australia, 2007-11
                                                                  • Figure 146: The economic impact of the cruise sector on Australian ports, 2010-11
                                                                • New Zealand seeing benefits
                                                                  • Figure 147: The cruise impact on the New Zealand economy, 2000-11
                                                                  • Figure 148: International cruise-visitor spending in New Zealand, 2010-11
                                                                  • Figure 149: International cruise-visitor spending in New Zealand, 2011-12
                                                                • Numbers down in Antarctica
                                                                  • Impact in North America
                                                                    • Figure 150: The cruise-industry impact on the US economy, 2006-10
                                                                    • Figure 151: Spending by cruise passengers/crew in US, 2008-10
                                                                    • Figure 152: US industries benefiting from the cruise sector, 2008 and 2010
                                                                    • Figure 153: The cruise-industry impact by US state, 2010*
                                                                    • Figure 154: Cruise-passenger spending in New York, 2010-11
                                                                    • Figure 155: Cruise-crew visitor spending in New York, 2009-11
                                                                    • Figure 156: World’s top ten homeports, 2009-11
                                                                    • Figure 157: Summer tourism arrivals in Alaska, 2008-11
                                                                  • Caribbean steadies the ship
                                                                      • Figure 158: Caribbean cruise traffic, 2008-11
                                                                    • Amber light for Caribbean port developments
                                                                      • Mexican waves goodbye to Riviera traffic
                                                                        • Figure 159: World's top ten cruise transit ports, 2009-11
                                                                      • Visa change also helps Brazilian cruise sector
                                                                        • Visa breakthrough brings better news for Gulf
                                                                          • Urgent need for more port investment to realise Asia potential
                                                                              • Figure 160: Singapore cruise traffic, 2001-11
                                                                          • Balance of Shipbuilding Power Set For Eastward Shift

                                                                                • Figure 161: New ships on order, 2013-16
                                                                                • Figure 162: Share of newbuild market by number of berths, 1990-2012
                                                                              • Shipbuilder prospects and strategies
                                                                                • Fincantieri
                                                                                  • Figure 163: Fincantieri orderbook, September 2012
                                                                                • Meyer Werft
                                                                                  • Figure 164: Meyer Werft orderbook, September 2012
                                                                                • STX Europe – Finland and France
                                                                                  • Figure 165: STX Europe (Finland) orderbook, September 2012
                                                                                  • Figure 166: STX Europe (France) orderbook, September 2012
                                                                                • Mitsubishi
                                                                                  • Figure 167: Mitsuibishi orderbook, September 2012
                                                                                • Outlook for shipbuilders
                                                                                  • Figure 168: Cruise industry expenditure for newbuilds and refurbishment, by country benefiting, 2008-11
                                                                              • What Next?

                                                                                  • Shopping around for new ways to sell
                                                                                    • Back to multi-class cruising?
                                                                                      • Upscale entertainment for an upscale fee
                                                                                        • Interporting the key to opening up more source markets
                                                                                          • Privatisation and cruise-line investment the way ahead for ports?
                                                                                            • Emissions: reprieve possible but long-term solution still needed

                                                                                            Companies Covered

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                                                                                            The Worldwide Cruise Market - September 2012

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