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Dairy and Non-dairy Milk - Canada - March 2017

"Canada is experiencing a shift with respect to dairy milk as usage has declined and this trend is expected to continue. As the category contracts it remains important to benchmark usage across different demographics to hone in on relevant target groups and identify gaps, understand the drivers for drinking milk, understand how milk (both dairy and non-dairy) is used and ascertain general attitudes towards both dairy and non-dairy milk as a tool to help inform messaging and promotional strategies. This information can also be used to better understand the competitive landscape, including non-dairy milk alternatives, which prove more popular with younger Canadian adults (versus older adults)."
- Joel Gregoire, Senior Food & Beverage Research Analyst

This Report discusses the following key issues:

  • Dairy milk consumption continues to decline
  • Clearer messaging can support non-dairy milk options
  • External factors impede dairy milk’s usage

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Consumer research
          • Market size
          • Executive Summary

            • The issues
              • Dairy milk consumption continues to decline
                • Figure 1: Total per capita volume consumption of dairy milk in Canada, 2011-16
              • Clearer messaging can support non-dairy milk options
                • Figure 2: Statements related to non-dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
              • External factors impede dairy milk’s usage
                • Figure 3: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
              • The opportunities
                • Focus on core attributes when promoting dairy milk
                  • Figure 4: Top reasons why consumers personally drink milk, January 2017
                • Non-dairy milk proves more popular among younger adults
                  • Figure 5: Stated personal consumption of non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
                • Consumers are most likely to use dairy milk as an additive
                  • Figure 6: How dairy milk is used, January 2017
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                  • Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
                    • International influence may lead to industry disruption
                      • Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth, but represents a challenge for dairy
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
                          • Figure 7: Canadian total volume sales and fan chart for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
                          • Figure 8: Canadian retail volume sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
                          • Figure 9: Canadian retail value sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
                          • Figure 10: Canadian retail value sales and forecast for (dairy) milk, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Market Factors

                        • International influence may lead to industry disruption
                          • Dairy milk producers can adjust focus to appeal to Canada’s aging population
                            • Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                          • Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
                            • Figure 12: Foreign-born share of population by G8 country and Australia
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Dairy milk declines continue
                            • Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
                              • Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
                                  • Figure 13: Share of launches white milk, flavoured milk and plant-based drinks (dairy alternatives) in Canada and US, 2016 vs 2011
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Dairy milk declines continue
                                  • Figure 14: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
                                • Tension around the use of the term milk for dairy alternatives
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Flavour exploration represents an innovation opportunity for dairy milk
                                    • Figure 15: Flavoured milk launches in North America, share by flavour, 2016
                                    • Figure 16: Sir bananas WhiteWave Foods, May 2016 (US)
                                    • Figure 17: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor, July 2016 (US)
                                    • Figure 18: Lactantia French Vanilla Partly Skimmed Milk, December 2015 (Canada)
                                    • Figure 19: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor Dark Chocolate Truffle Flavored Reduced Fat Milk, August 2015 (US)
                                    • Figure 20: Hangyo Mango Flavoured Milk, December 2016 (India)
                                  • Further opportunity to showcase health benefits
                                    • Figure 21: Almacenes Éxito Quinoa, Soy and Malt Drink, September 2016 (Columbia)
                                    • Figure 22: Marks & Spencer Made without Dairy Multigrain Drink, February 2017 (UK)
                                    • Figure 23: Nestlé Nesfit, Rice Smoothie with Grape, Beetroot & Ginger, April 2016 (Brazil)
                                    • Figure 24: Oatly! Apple, Beetroot & Ginger Flavoured Recovery Drink, July 2016 (Sweden)
                                    • Figure 25: Veggemo Original Veggie Based Non-Dairy Beverage, December 2015 (Canada)
                                  • Cold pressed an opportunity in the dairy milk category
                                    • Figure 26: Organic Gemini Strawberry Flavoured TigerNut Horchata, October 2015 (US)
                                  • Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
                                    • Figure 27: Discover the Natrel Milk Bar by Java U – Toronto, October 2016
                                  • Continued investment in innovation
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
                                      • Health represents a more prominent consideration for older consumers
                                        • Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
                                          • Education key in supporting expansion of non-dairy milk
                                            • Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children
                                            • Milk Usage

                                              • Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
                                                • Figure 28: Personal consumption of dairy milk in the past three months, by type, January 2017
                                                • Figure 29: Personal consumption of non-dairy milk in the past three months, January 2017
                                              • Canadians are most likely to use milk as an additive
                                                • Figure 30: How milk is used (overview), by consumer type, January 2017
                                              • Milk ingredient usage is a key to wholesome exploration
                                                • Figure 31: Ingredient-related milk usage, by consumer type, January 2017
                                                • Figure 32: Milk usage as an ingredient while cooking, by gender and age, January 2017
                                              • Milk usage varies by age and other demographic indicators
                                                • Figure 33: Dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 34: Non-dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 35: Kikkoman Tonyu Inryo Apple Pie Flavour Soymilk, October 2016 (Japan)
                                                • Figure 36: Tumeric Mexican Chocolate Super Blend, April 2015 (US)
                                            • Reasons Consumers Drink Milk

                                                • Figure 37: Reasons for personally drinking milk, January 2017
                                              • Health represents more a prominent consideration for older consumers
                                                • Figure 38: Health-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 39: Help Prevent Osteoporosis, October 2016
                                              • Gender influences the importance of taste
                                                • Figure 40: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
                                                • Figure 41: Hockey | Dairy Farmers of Canada, February 2017
                                              • Nostalgia’s importance increases with age and among men
                                                • Figure 42: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
                                                • Figure 43: Milk Every Moment – “Lunch”, September 2015
                                                • Figure 44: Nostalgia-related reasons for personally drinking milk – men, by age, January 2017
                                            • Attitudes towards Dairy Milk

                                              • Provenance and purity matter to Canadian consumers
                                                • Figure 45: Statements relating to dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
                                                • Figure 46: Agropur pride, September 2015
                                                • Figure 47: Provenance and hormone-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
                                              • Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
                                                • Figure 48: Barriers to drinking dairy milk, by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 49: Personally consumed dairy or non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
                                              • Younger adults more likely to show interest in innovation
                                                • Figure 50: Interest in dairy milk innovation, by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 51: President’s Choice Vanilla Bean Kefir Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
                                                • Figure 52: Iögo Probio Kéfir Strawberry Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
                                                • Figure 53: Danone Drinking Yogurt, January 2016 (Russia)
                                                • Figure 54: Behind The Milk Glass, October 2016
                                            • Attitudes towards Non-dairy Milk

                                              • Education key in supporting non-dairy milk expansion
                                                • Figure 55: Non-dairy milk statements (% agree), January 2017
                                              • Younger consumers hold more positive views on non-dairy milk
                                                • Figure 56: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 57: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
                                                • Figure 58: Flavour and ingredients-related statements about non-dairy milk (% agree), by age, January 2017
                                            • Consumer Groups

                                              • Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children’s presence
                                                • Figure 59: Household consumption of milk, by parental status, January 2017
                                              • Chinese Canadians exhibit different behaviours with regards to milk
                                                • Figure 60: Household consumption of milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
                                                • Figure 61: Reasons for drinking milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
                                                • Figure 62: Non-dairy statements (% agree), Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
                                              • Americans drink more milk
                                                • Figure 63: Total volume consumption per capita, Canada vs US, January 2017
                                                • Figure 64: Household dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
                                                • Figure 65: How dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
                                                • Figure 66: Household non-dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
                                                • Figure 67: How non-dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                              • Data sources
                                                • Sales data
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations

                                                        Companies Covered

                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                        Dairy and Non-dairy Milk - Canada - March 2017

                                                        US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)