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Dairy and Non-dairy Milk: Spotlight on Non-diary - US - April 2015

Success comes from rising non-dairy milk popularity, high dairy milk prices, and dairy milk repositioning itself to align with current health trends. Mintel predicts steady category growth through 2019.

Forecasts expect non-dairy milk to continue making healthy progress while dairy milk’s struggles to remain relevant, cancel the former segment’s gains, limiting overall category growth.

Mintel uses the following definitions in this report:

Dairy milk:

  • refrigerated skim/lowfat milk; 
  • refrigerated whole milk; 
  • refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk; 
  • and shelf-stable RTD milk/milk substitutes (primarily single-serve flavored milk in aseptic packaging). 

Non-dairy milk:

  • refrigerated and shelf-stable ready-to-drink almond milk, coconut milk, soy milk, and other non-dairy milks, including hemp milk, and nut milks.

Mintel predicts the milk category will continue to grow as consumers search for natural, nutritious beverages. Estimated 2014 non-dairy milk sales gains are likely a result of greater purchase frequency, where price increases influence dairy milk’s sales gains.

Dairy milk faces challenges: dairy intolerance expansion, price sensitivities, and negative media about its safety. Taste barriers challenge non-dairy milks. The segments compete against each other in terms of health yet many non-dairy milk consumers do not know the differences between milk types or their benefits. This hinders segment growth.

Health perceptions encourage trial, but both segments need to continue to prove their value to consumers. Category players need to promote their product strengths and innovate beyond nutritional content, exploring less functional factors, such as a particular “milk” mood or occasion. Manufacturers must be transparent about their milk benefits to educate consumers. Products have opportunities to increase relevance by catering to the needs of growing families, messaging to Millennials looking for natural nutrition, or older consumers wanting longevity.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                    • The market
                      • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
                    • Segment performance
                      • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                    • Key players
                      • Figure 3: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                    • Non-dairy milk consumption increases, dairy milk remains flat
                      • Figure 4: Total milk consumption, January 2015
                    • Nutrition, taste, protein top reasons for drinking non-dairy milk
                      • Health pushes dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
                        • Figure 5: Total milk consumption – Any consumption, by reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
                      • What we think
                      • Issues and Insights

                          • Do consumers know the difference between non-dairy milks?
                            • Issues
                              • Insight: Increase consumer education
                                • How can products resonate with consumers?
                                  • Issues
                                    • Insight: Tap consumer’s personal needs to encourage trial
                                    • Trend Application

                                        • Trend: Hungry Planet
                                          • Trend: Prove It
                                            • Trend: Moral Brands
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • Key points
                                                • Sales and forecast of total milk
                                                  • Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                  • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                • Total category growth will continue
                                                  • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                • Market Drivers

                                                  • California drought, overseas demand, spurs high 2014 milk prices
                                                    • Figure 9: Average retail milk prices, per gallon, US city average, January 2014-February 2015
                                                  • Conflicting media reports complicate health perceptions
                                                    • Positioning as a healthy beverage aids growth
                                                      • Figure 10: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
                                                    • Race, presence of children impacts milk usage
                                                      • Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                                                      • Figure 12: Households with own children. by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
                                                      • Figure 13: Population percent change, by age and race, 2010-20
                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Non-dairy milk sales up 94%, dairy milk up 14%
                                                        • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Segment forecast at current prices
                                                        • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Inflation-adjusted prices forecast dairy milk segment decline
                                                        • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Forecast table output, at inflation-adjusted prices
                                                        • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Whole milk sees largest sales gain in estimated 2014
                                                        • Figure 18: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Almond milk dominates non-dairy milk
                                                        • Figure 19: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                    • Retail Channels

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Retail channels see strong sales gains
                                                          • Figure 20: Total US retail sales of total milk, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                        • Natural channel sales increase 23%
                                                          • Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                        • Dairy/non-dairy 60/40 split in natural channels
                                                          • Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
                                                        • Almond, soy, coconut are top non-dairy milks
                                                          • Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012
                                                          • Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2014
                                                          • Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
                                                        • Organic preferred for dairy milk, non-organic for non-dairy
                                                          • Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
                                                      • Leading Companies

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Private label dominates leading companies
                                                            • Figure 27: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                          • Milk category sees 3% growth
                                                            • Figure 28: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                        • Brand Share

                                                          • Flavored, organic dairy milks see growth
                                                            • Dean Foods declines 4%
                                                              • Prairie Farms experiences largest gains
                                                                • Organic milk’s strong demand continues
                                                                  • Soy milk struggles, almond milk sees growth
                                                                    • WhiteWave’s soy milk declines, almond milk grows
                                                                      • Blue Diamond’s Almond Breeze experiences sales gains
                                                                        • Name brand beats private label
                                                                          • Figure 29: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                        • Dairy milk sales increase 3.2%
                                                                          • Figure 30: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                        • Non-dairy milk brand share declines 4.4%
                                                                          • Figure 31: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                      • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                        • Dairy milk offers additional nutrition
                                                                          • And pushes protein
                                                                            • Rise of new non-dairy milk types
                                                                              • Cold-press next for non-dairy chilled milk
                                                                                • Premium milk enters market
                                                                                • General Milk Consumption

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Figure 32: Total milk consumption, January 2015
                                                                                  • Dairy milk consumption declining
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Household milk consumption, average number of glasses consumed in past 30 days
                                                                                  • Men seek variety of milk types
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Total milk personal consumption, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                  • Baby Boomers and older untapped market
                                                                                      • Figure 35: Total milk personal consumption, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                    • Presence of children increases household consumption
                                                                                      • Figure 36: Total milk personal consumption, by presence of children, January 2015
                                                                                    • Hispanics, Asians high non-dairy milk users
                                                                                      • Figure 37: Total milk personal consumption, by race, January 2015
                                                                                  • Non-Dairy Milk – Usage

                                                                                    • Non-dairy milk used with foods and other beverages
                                                                                      • Figure 38: Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
                                                                                    • Men drink; women use as ingredient
                                                                                      • Figure 39: Non-dairy milk usage, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                    • Non-dairy milk as exercise aid
                                                                                      • Figure 40: Non-dairy milk usage, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                    • Households with children drink at more occasions
                                                                                      • Figure 41: Non-dairy milk usage, by children in household, January 2015
                                                                                  • Non-Dairy Milk – Reasons for Usage

                                                                                    • Key points: Nutrition, taste, and protein content most important
                                                                                      • Figure 42: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2015
                                                                                    • Younger men most likely to drink non-dairy for protein
                                                                                      • Figure 43: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015
                                                                                    • Younger women drinking for taste; older women for protein
                                                                                      • Figure 44: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015
                                                                                  • For Health – Non-dairy Milk Consumption

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Almond milk drinkers using as exercise aid, meal replacement
                                                                                        • Figure 45: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
                                                                                      • Almond milk drinkers look for nutrition, protein, weight loss
                                                                                        • Figure 46: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
                                                                                      • Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
                                                                                        • Figure 47: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is healthier than dairy milk, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                      • Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier for kids
                                                                                        • Figure 48: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, non-dairy milk is healthier for kids than dairy milk, January 2015
                                                                                      • Half of Hispanics believe non-dairy to be healthier for adults than dairy
                                                                                        • Figure 49: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by race, January 2015
                                                                                      • Households with children find non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
                                                                                        • Figure 50: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by presence of children, January 2015
                                                                                    • As a Beverage – Non-dairy Milk Consumption

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Almond milk popular for beverage use, as a snack
                                                                                          • Figure 51: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
                                                                                        • Millennials want products that help them lead healthier lives
                                                                                          • Figure 52: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, any agree, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                        • Households with children less likely to drink as beverage
                                                                                          • Figure 53: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is good with food, but not by itself, by presence of children, January 2015
                                                                                      • Ingredient Usage

                                                                                        • Restaurants offer non-dairy milks in familiar forms
                                                                                          • Figure 54: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 55: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
                                                                                      • Consumption Shift – Dairy to Non-dairy

                                                                                        • Nutrition, allergies push dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
                                                                                          • Figure 56: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
                                                                                      • Attitudes and Attributes

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Heavy users unaware of nutritional differences between non-dairy milks
                                                                                            • Figure 57: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 58: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk innovation, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                          • Men, Hispanic and Asians overwhelmed by choices
                                                                                            • Figure 59: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I AM OVERWHELMED by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 60: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am overwhelmed by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by race, January 2015
                                                                                          • Heavy users see environmental impact of non-dairy
                                                                                            • Figure 61: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 62: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am concerned about the negative environmental/ecological effect from non-dairy milk production, by race, January 2015
                                                                                        • Purchasing Habits

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Figure 63: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, January 2015
                                                                                          • Package offers ways to increase consumption
                                                                                            • Figure 64: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                          • Preference of natural vs organic
                                                                                            • Figure 65: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                          • Nutrition more important than calories
                                                                                            • Figure 66: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 67: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by race, January 2015
                                                                                          • Refrigerated non-dairy preferred
                                                                                            • Figure 68: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 69: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk sold in the refrigerated section is fresher than non-dairy milk sold on store shelves, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 70: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2015
                                                                                        • CHAID analysis – Specialty/Holiday Non-Dairy Flavors

                                                                                          • Target for specialty/holiday flavors
                                                                                            • Figure 71: Holiday flavors – CHAID – Tree output, January 2015
                                                                                          • CHAID table output
                                                                                            • Figure 72: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk – CHAID – Table output, January 2015
                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                          • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                              • Almond Board of California
                                                                                                • American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI)
                                                                                                  • American Soybean Association (ASA)
                                                                                                    • International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA)
                                                                                                      • National Dairy Council (NDC)
                                                                                                        • Organic Trade Association (OTA)
                                                                                                          • United Soybean Board (USB)
                                                                                                            • US Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
                                                                                                              • Regional dairy councils
                                                                                                                • State associations

                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                Dairy and Non-dairy Milk: Spotlight on Non-diary - US - April 2015

                                                                                                                £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)