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Dairy Milk - US - March 2016

"The momentum dairy milk experienced in 2014 failed to continue in estimated 2015 as the category faced challenges from a surplus of milk, declining exports, declining consumer consumption, and strong competition from the non-dairy milk segment. Mintel forecast declines to continue through 2020; however, opportunities to calm future sales declines may exist with premium milks, added health benefits, and innovation with smaller, successful subsegments, such as lactose-free and organic milk offerings."
- Elizabeth Sisel, Beverage Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Dairy milk category sales decline in estimated 2015
  • Milk USDA volume consumption decreases
  • Non-dairy milk popularity challenges dairy milk consumption

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has segmented the market as follows:

  • Refrigerated skim/low-fat milk
  • Refrigerated whole milk
  • Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
  • Shelf-stable ready-to-drink milk/milk substitutes (primarily regular and flavored milk in aseptic packaging)

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Dairy milk category sales decline in estimated 2015
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Milk USDA volume consumption decreases
            • Figure 2: US per capita consumption of fluid milk, in pound per person, 2000-14
          • Non-dairy milk popularity challenges dairy milk consumption
            • Figure 3: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
          • The opportunities
            • Milk innovation emphasizing drinking/usage occasion
              • Figure 4: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
            • Innovation with trending attributes, like easy digestion
              • Figure 5: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, January 2016
            • Greater emphasis on dairy milk’s niche health benefits and taste
              • Figure 6: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, January 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Dairy milk forecast to decline in estimated 2015-20
                • Only flavored milk sees growth in 2015
                  • Majority of consumers drink non-dairy milk, category sales grows
                    • Milk consumption, retail prices decline
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Dairy milk category forecast to decline through 2020
                        • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Majority of dairy milk segments on the decline
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Flavored milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • All channels experience sales loss from 2013-15
                        • Figure 12: Sales of market, by segment, current year
                      • Natural channel dairy milk sales grow
                        • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013-Nov. 29, 2015
                      • Majority of dairy milk sales at natural channels organic
                        • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov 29, 2015
                      • Grass-fed dairy milk sales minority, but has potential
                        • Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by "grass fed" label claims, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov 29, 2015
                    • Market Perspective – Non-dairy Milk

                      • Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
                        • Figure 16: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                      • Majority of consumers drink non-dairy milk
                        • Figure 19: Non-dairy milk consumption, January 2016
                    • Market Factors

                      • Milk USDA volume consumption decreases
                        • Figure 20: US per capita consumption of fluid milk, in pound per person, 2000-14
                      • Milk retail prices decline in 2015
                        • Figure 21: Average retail milk prices, per gallon, US city average, 2005-15
                      • Milk’s healthy image challenged in the media
                        • Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
                          • Figure 22: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
                        • Households with children decline
                          • Figure 23: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                        • Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
                          • Millennials as parents
                            • Figure 24: Percent of households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
                          • Hispanics as parents
                            • Figure 25: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
                          • Hispanics as Millennials
                            • Figure 26: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Leading companies, private label struggle at MULO channels
                            • Lactose-free, flavored milks seeing success
                              • Private label, skim/low-fat milk struggle at MULO channels
                                • Dairy milk innovation through packaging, function, and benefits
                                • Manufacturer Sales of Dairy Milk

                                  • HP Hood, WhiteWave sees growth thanks to lactose-free, organic milks
                                      • Figure 27: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                    • Manufacturer sales of dairy milk
                                      • Figure 28: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Dean Foods DairyPure unites brands
                                      • Lactose-free/easy digestibility attracting attention, sales growth
                                        • Flavored milks see MULO gains
                                        • What’s Struggling?

                                          • Skim/low-fat milk sales decline at MULO channels
                                            • Figure 29: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                          • Private label losses dollar sales and market share
                                            • Figure 30: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                        • What’s Next?

                                          • Milk from jersey cows offers consumers easy digestibility
                                            • US products
                                              • Global products
                                                • Packaging to encourage more on-the-go consumption
                                                  • Ultra- and micro-filtered milks offer nutritional, longer lasting milk
                                                    • US products – Filtered for quality
                                                      • Global products – Filtered for longevity
                                                        • Opportunities to highlight unique health benefits
                                                          • New innovation to increase usage occasions
                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                            • Majority drinking a variety of dairy milk types
                                                              • Dairy milk consumers also drink non-dairy milk
                                                                • 90% of adults drink dairy milk
                                                                  • Majority of kids under age 18 drink dairy milk
                                                                    • 58% of dairy milk consumers frequent drinkers
                                                                      • Consumers most likely using dairy milk as an addition, ingredient
                                                                        • Natural, vitamin and mineral content most important attributes
                                                                          • Consumers prefer refrigerated milks, interest in easy digestion
                                                                            • Bone health, taste leading reasons for drinking dairy milk
                                                                              • Overall consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
                                                                              • Cross-Consumption of Dairy Milks

                                                                                • Majority drinking a variety of dairy milk types
                                                                                  • Figure 31: Repertoire analysis, dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                                                                              • Cross-Consumption of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk

                                                                                • Dairy milk consumers also drink non-dairy milk
                                                                                  • Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 34: Non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                                                                              • Core Consumers – Adult Consumption

                                                                                • 90% of adults drink dairy milk
                                                                                  • Figure 35: Dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
                                                                                • Men heaviest dairy milk drinkers
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender, January 2016
                                                                                  • Millennials core drinkers, but opportunity to appeal to older drinkers
                                                                                      • Figure 37: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                    • Presence of children influences adult personal consumption
                                                                                        • Figure 38: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                      • Whites, Hispanics top dairy milk consumers
                                                                                          • Figure 39: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                      • Core Consumers – Child(ren) Consumption

                                                                                        • Majority of kids under age 18 drink dairy milk
                                                                                            • Figure 40: Dairy milk consumption – Child consumption, January 2016
                                                                                        • Consumption Frequency

                                                                                          • 58% of dairy milk consumers frequent drinkers
                                                                                            • Figure 41: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
                                                                                          • Millennials frequent drinkers, opportunity to encourage non-Millennials
                                                                                            • Figure 42: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
                                                                                          • Parents frequent dairy milk drinkers
                                                                                            • Figure 43: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
                                                                                          • Opportunity to increase consumption among Black consumers
                                                                                            • Figure 44: Dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                        • Consumption Habits

                                                                                          • Consumers most likely using dairy milk as an addition, ingredient
                                                                                            • Figure 45: Dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 46: Dairy milk consumption habits – Meal accompaniment, by demographics, January 2016
                                                                                          • Men more open to drinking dairy milk like a beverage
                                                                                            • Figure 47: Dairy milk consumption habits, by gender, January 2016
                                                                                          • Millennials most likely to drink dairy milk as a drink
                                                                                            • Figure 48: Dairy milk consumption habits, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                          • Parents drink dairy milk as more occasions
                                                                                            • Figure 49: Dairy milk consumption habits, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                          • Hispanic consumption overlaps with Millennial’s habits
                                                                                            • Figure 50: Dairy milk consumption habits, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                        • Preferred Attributes

                                                                                          • Natural, vitamin and mineral content most important attributes
                                                                                            • Figure 51: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, January 2016
                                                                                          • Opportunity for milk to cater to consumer’s lifestage
                                                                                            • Figure 52: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                          • Presence of children influence parents’ important attributes
                                                                                            • Mother and fathers consider different attributes important
                                                                                              • Figure 53: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                          • Attitudes and Behaviors toward Dairy Milk

                                                                                            • Consumers prefer refrigerated milks, interest in easy digestion
                                                                                                • Figure 54: Dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
                                                                                                • Figure 55: Dairy milk attitudes and behavior – CHAID – Tree output, January 2015
                                                                                              • CHAID Analysis methodology
                                                                                                • Older Millennials most likely open to new milk innovation
                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Dairy milk attitudes and behaviors – Generation, January 2016
                                                                                              • Reasons for Consuming

                                                                                                • Bone health, taste leading reasons for drinking dairy milk
                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, January 2016
                                                                                                • Millennials seek overall health, non-Millennials want taste and nutrients
                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                                • Parents drink milk for health
                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                              • Milk Perceptions

                                                                                                • Overall consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Milk perceptions, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Consumers in their own words
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                            • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                                              • CHAID Analysis methodology
                                                                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                    • Terms
                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: US supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: US drugstore sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: US sales od dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: MULO sales of flavored milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: MULO sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015

                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                    Dairy Milk - US - March 2016

                                                                                                                    US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)