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Dining Out: A 2011 Look Ahead - US - January 2011

The future of dining out in 2011 is already being shaped thanks to trends, laws, economic factors and demographic tastes.

In this report, Mintel provides insight and ideation surrounding these factors for the restaurant industry. Issues of healthfulness, menu transparency, technology and seasonality shape how consumers interact with restaurants. As these issues develop further, they will continue to shape and reshape the industry, calling for new restaurant services, tools and menu innovation. Key elements that affect the future of the industry will be discussed, including:

  • Key economic and demographic factors that will determine the direction of the foodservice industry in the near and late term
  • Ramifications and loopholes of coming menu transparency laws regarding calorie disclosure
  • The push and opportunities for better-for-you (BFY) menu items without losing sight of flavor
  • Marketing strategies that work, using social media and technology
  • Top menu items, flavors, marketing claims, and cuisine types
  • Consumers’ attitudes toward dining out in 2011 and what they say are important considerations
  • Mintel Oxygen, which offers foodservice analyst expertise and a dedicated report series
  • Mintel Inspire, a unique tool that reveals daily influences on brands and people, and helps generate ideas about trend direction
  • Mintel Menu Insights, which provides flavor, ingredient, preparation and price trend analysis, drawing from the largest 350 chain restaurants, as well as 150 independent restaurants, 50 restaurants run by top chefs, and 25 beverage-focused restaurants
  • Custom consumer research on consumer attitudes relevant to topics analyzed in the report

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Data sources
        • Consumer survey data
          • Advertising creative
            • Abbreviations and terms
              • Abbreviations
                • Terms
                • Executive Summary

                    • Market conditions show the way out of industry contraction
                      • Industry trends will drive menu innovation
                        • Marketing success can be measured, leading to more of what works
                          • Trended menu research shows what is hot and what’s on its way out
                            • Consumers share their dining-out habits and future prospects
                              • Kids and teens indicate their preferences
                              • Insights and Opportunities

                                • Key points
                                  • A Millennial view of cultural cuisines
                                    • Loophole in menu labeling laws
                                    • Inspire Insights

                                        • Trend—Fit or Fat
                                          • Consider this
                                              • Figure 1: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, October 2010
                                            • Bottom line
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • Key points
                                                • A return to normalcy in the restaurant industry
                                                  • Sales and forecast of restaurants
                                                    • Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                  • Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
                                                    • Figure 4: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Figure 5: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                  • Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
                                                    • Figure 6: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Figure 7: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                  • Fan-chart forecast
                                                      • Figure 8: Restaurant industry fanned forecast, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Economic factors
                                                        • Figure 9: Unemployment and underemployment rate in the U.S., January 2007-November 2010
                                                        • Figure 10: U.S. real disposable personal income growth, January 2007-November 2010
                                                      • Attitudes and behaviors
                                                        • Figure 11: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-December 2010
                                                        • Figure 12: NRA performance indices, January 2009-November 2010
                                                      • Demographic factors
                                                        • Figure 13: Population, by age, 2005-15
                                                    • 2011 Look Ahead

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Restaurant and menu transparency
                                                          • Healthful halo
                                                            • Technology abounds
                                                              • Indigenous ingredients
                                                                • Figure 14: Top five foods, beverages, cuisines, and culinary themes 2009-2011
                                                            • Menu Insights Analysis—Growing Menu Items

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Top menu items
                                                                    • Figure 15: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
                                                                  • Top nutrition claims
                                                                    • Figure 16: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
                                                                  • Top menu item claims
                                                                    • Figure 17: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
                                                                • Menu Insights Analysis—New Cuisines Bring New Flavors

                                                                    • Top cuisine types
                                                                      • Figure 18: Cuisine types at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
                                                                    • Top flavor mentions
                                                                      • Figure 19: Flavors at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
                                                                  • Marketing Strategies

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Television ads
                                                                        • Figure 20: Burger King new breakfast menu ad, 2010
                                                                        • Figure 21: Panera Bread panini ad, 2010
                                                                        • Figure 22: Chili’s LTO $9.99 ad, 2010
                                                                        • Figure 23: KFC double down ad, 2010
                                                                        • Figure 24: IHOP fall festival of flavors ad, 2010
                                                                      • Websites
                                                                        • Burger King
                                                                          • Figure 25: BK.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
                                                                        • Denny’s
                                                                          • Figure 26: Dennys.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
                                                                        • Qdoba Mexican Grill
                                                                          • Figure 27: Qdoba.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
                                                                        • Taco Bell
                                                                          • Figure 28: tacobell.com monthly visitors, December 2009-November 2010
                                                                        • El Pollo Loco
                                                                          • Figure 29: elpolloloco.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
                                                                        • Social media
                                                                          • Pizza Hut
                                                                            • Figure 30: Pizza Hut Facebook ordering app, December 2010
                                                                          • Dairy Queen
                                                                            • Figure 31: Dairy Queen Blizzard Fan Club Facebook promotion, December 2010
                                                                          • CKE Restaurants Inc. (Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr.)
                                                                            • Figure 32: Hardee’s Facebook page, December 2010
                                                                          • McDonald’s
                                                                            • Figure 33: McDonald’s Facebook page, December 2010
                                                                        • Restaurant Usage

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Restaurant visit averages
                                                                              • Figure 34: Restaurant usage, October 2010
                                                                              • Figure 35: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2010
                                                                              • Figure 36: Restaurant usage, by household income, September 2010
                                                                          • Changes in Restaurant Spending

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Restaurant usage next year
                                                                                • Figure 37: Restaurant usage next year, October 2010
                                                                                • Figure 38: Restaurant usage next year, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                • Figure 39: Restaurant usage next year, by region, October 2010
                                                                                • Figure 40: Restaurant segments spending change, October 2010
                                                                            • Impact of Calorie Disclosure

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Effect of calorie count on dining out
                                                                                    • Figure 41: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, October 2010
                                                                                    • Figure 42: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                    • Figure 43: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by age, October 2010
                                                                                    • Figure 44: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                • Impact of the Recession

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Slump in spending
                                                                                      • Figure 45: Impact of recession on dining out, October 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 46: Impact of recession on dining out, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 47: Impact of recession on dining out, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                  • Restaurant Transparency

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Scorecard on communications
                                                                                        • Figure 48: restaurant transparency, October 2010
                                                                                        • Figure 49: restaurant transparency, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                        • Figure 50: restaurant transparency, by gender and presence of children, October 2010
                                                                                    • Interaction with Technology

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Gauge of technology usage
                                                                                            • Figure 51: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, October 2010
                                                                                            • Figure 52: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                            • Figure 53: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, by age, October 2010
                                                                                        • Attitudes toward Ingredients

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Popular thinking about ingredients
                                                                                              • Figure 54: Menu ingredients, October 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 55: Menu ingredients, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 56: Menu ingredients, by age, October 2010
                                                                                          • Areas for Improvement

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • How restaurants could do better
                                                                                                • Figure 57: Areas of improvement for restaurants, October 2010
                                                                                                • Figure 58: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                • Figure 59: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                • Figure 60: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                            • Preferred Cuisines

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Flavor ratings
                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Interest in cuisine types, October 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Interest in cuisine types, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Interest in cuisine types, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                • Kids and Teen Restaurant Usage

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Kids restaurant usage
                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Fast food usage, by eating occasion, among kids aged 6-11, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Fast food usage by eating occasion among kids aged 6-11, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Fast food usage by eating occasion, among kids aged 6-11, by region, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Reason for favorite fast-food restaurant among kids aged 6-11, by age group and gender, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                    • Teens restaurant usage
                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Fast food usage by eating occasion, among teens aged 12-17, by gender, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Top ten fast-food restaurants teens aged 12-17 visit, by gender, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                      • Consisters
                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                              • Healthers
                                                                                                                • Demographics
                                                                                                                  • Characteristics
                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                      • Connectors
                                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                              • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Dining out clusters, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Restaurant usage, by dining out clusters, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Attitudes toward dining out, by dining out clusters, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by dining out clusters, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by dining out clusters, October 2010
                                                                                                                              • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Dining out clusters, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Dining out clusters, by age group, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 77: Dining out clusters, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 78: Dining out clusters, by race, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Figure 79: Dining out clusters, by Hispanic origin, October 2010
                                                                                                                              • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                              • Custom Groups—Light, Medium, Heavy

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Restaurant usage
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Restaurant usage, by restaurant frequency groups, by usage, October 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Restaurant usage, by restaurant frequency groups, by usage, October 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Changes in restaurant spending
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Changes in restaurant spending, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Impact of the recession
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Impact of recession, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Ingredients
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Ingredients, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Interaction with technology
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Interaction with technology, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
                                                                                                                                • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                  • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                  • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                  • California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                  • Domino's Pizza LLB
                                                                                                                                  • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                  • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                  • International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
                                                                                                                                  • International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
                                                                                                                                  • International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
                                                                                                                                  • International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
                                                                                                                                  • International Franchise Association (IFA)
                                                                                                                                  • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                                  • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                  • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                  • Sodexo, Inc.
                                                                                                                                  • Taco Bell Corp.
                                                                                                                                  • The Wendy's Company
                                                                                                                                  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                  • U.S. Department of Agriculture

                                                                                                                                  Dining Out: A 2011 Look Ahead - US - January 2011

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