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- Dining Out: A 2012 Look Ahead - US - January 2012
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In spite of the economic ups and downs of the past year, consumers have found a way to include dining out in their budget, perhaps becoming recession weary and finding restaurants a form of creature comfort. So much the more going forward as the economy begins to pick up.
In this report, Mintel examines restaurant economics and drivers, restaurant and menu trends, and consumer attitudes and habits to provide a glimpse into the future of the dining-out industry. Insights from this report will help operators and foodservice suppliers create high-demand products and build effective marketing messages. All restaurant stakeholders will want to read this report in order to understand:
- The size of the market trended over time with analysis of future growth projections
- Factors hindering/helping the industry realize its greatest profit potential
- Five restaurant operational/menu trends that will drive the industry through 2012 and beyond
- Successful marketing strategies and messages that resonate with consumers
- Menu trends in terms of items, prices and marketing claims
- Consumers’ favorite restaurant segments and their 2012 restaurant spending plans
- Consumer attitudes about calorie disclosure, menu options, technology and areas for restaurant improvement
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Market drivers
2012 look ahead at menu/operational trends
Menu insights
Restaurant usage
Changes in restaurant spending
Impact of calorie disclosure and the economy
Restaurants and menu options
The potential for technology
Improvement for restaurants
Interest in preparation techniques
Familiarity and interest in regional cuisines
Insights and Opportunities
Prepare for the law
Figure 1: Moe’s Southwest Grill’s Food Mission Wheel, December 2011
Regional rivalry
Figure 2: Familiarity of and interest in regional American BBQ, October 2011
Inspire Insights
Trend: Access All Areas
Trend: Patriot Games
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Sales and forecast of restaurants
Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 4: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
Figure 5: U.S. sales at full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 6: U.S. sales at full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
Figure 7: U.S. sales at limited-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 8: U.S. sales at limited-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Fan chart forecast
Figure 9: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2006-16
Market Drivers
Key points
Unemployment rate looks more hopeful
Figure 10: Incidence of unemployment and underemployment, Jan. 2007-Nov. 2011
Disposable personal income inches up
Figure 11: Real disposable income, Jan. 2007-Oct. 2011
Consumer sentiment, cautiously optimistic
Figure 12: Consumer sentiment, March 2007-Nov. 2011
Restaurant Performance Index looks hopeful
Figure 13: Restaurant Performance Index, Jan. 2009-Oct. 2011
Menu labeling legislation will likely impact the industry
Figure 14: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2008
2012 Look Ahead
Key points
American regionalism
Figure 15: Familiarity of and interest in regional American cuisines, October 2011
Double-sided menus
Price
Health
Consumer control
Slow it down
Figure 16: Interest in preparation techniques, October 2011
Imported ideas
Marketing Strategies
Overview
Television
Domino’s
Figure 17: Domino’s, raising the bar television ad, 2011
Figure 18: Domino’s, artisan pizza—try it television ad, 2011
Figure 19: Hardee’s, made fresh television ad, 2011
Figure 20: Hardee’s, unbeatable hand television ad, 2011
Figure 21: Popeyes, I’m dancing television ad, 2011
Figure 22: Wendy’s, hot and juicy television ad, 2011
Websites and other digital media
Pizza Hut
Figure 23: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for pizzahut.com, May-Oct 2011
IHOP
Figure 24: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for IHOP.com, May-Oct 2011
Applebee’s
Figure 25: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for applebees.com, May-Oct 2011
Outback Steakhouse
Figure 26: Outback Steakhouse Facebook contest, December 2011
Figure 27: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for outback.com, May-Oct 2011
Cause marketing
Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Items
Key points
Top menu items
Figure 28: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
Menu item prices
Figure 29: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence and price, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Item Claims
Key points
Geographical claims
Figure 30: Top 10 American geographic claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
Menu item claims
Figure 31: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
Restaurant Usage
Key points
Choice restaurant types
Figure 32: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2011
Figure 33: Restaurant usage, by annual household income, October 2011
Frequency of visits
Figure 34: Restaurant monthly visits, by gender, October 2011
Figure 35: Restaurant monthly visits, by age, October 2011
Figure 36: Restaurant monthly visits, by annual household income, October 2011
Changes in Restaurant Spending
Key points
Future spending intentions
Figure 37: Restaurant spending next year, by gender, October 2011
Figure 38: Restaurant spending next year, by age, October 2011
Figure 39: Restaurant spending next year, by annual household income, October 2011
Segments at which consumers plan to spend more
Figure 40: Restaurant segments spending change, October 2011
Impact of Calorie Disclosure and the Economy
Key points
Action plan when calories are posted
Figure 41: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by gender, October 2011
Figure 42: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by age, October 2011
Figure 43: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by annual household income, October 2011
Economic impact on dining out
Figure 44: Impact of the recession on dining out, by gender, October 2011
Figure 45: Impact of the recession on dining out, by age, October 2011
Figure 46: Impact of the recession on dining out, by annual household income, October 2011
Restaurants and Menu Options
Key points
Attitudes about restaurant menus
Figure 47: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by gender, October 2011
Figure 48: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by age, October 2011
Figure 49: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by annual household income, October 2011
The Potential for Technology
Key points
Attitudes toward menu-ordering technology
Figure 50: Attitudes toward technology for ordering, by age, October 2011
Figure 51: Attitudes toward technology for ordering, by annual household income, October 2011
Improvement for Restaurants
Key points
Ways to improve restaurants
Figure 52: Improvement for restaurants, by gender, October 2011
Figure 53: Improvement for restaurants, by age, October 2011
Figure 54: Improvement for restaurants, by annual household income, October 2011
Interest in Preparation Techniques
Key points
Meaningful descriptions
Figure 55: Interest in preparation techniques, by gender, October 2011
Figure 56: Interest in preparation techniques, by age, October 2011
Figure 57: Interest in preparation techniques, by annual household income, October 2011
Familiarity with and Interest in Regional Cuisines
Key points
Familiarity with various regional cuisines
Figure 58: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by gender, October 2011
Figure 59: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by age, October 2011
Figure 60: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by annual household income, October 2011
Interest in various regional cuisines
Figure 61: Familiarity of and interest in regional American cuisines, October 2011
Figure 62: Interest in regional American cuisines, by gender, October 2011
Figure 63: Interest in regional American cuisines, by age, October 2011
Figure 64: Interest in regional American cuisines, by annual household income, October 2011
Custom Groups—Light, Medium, Heavy
Spending plans revealed
Figure 65: Restaurant spending next year, by usage frequency, October 2011
Figure 66: Restaurant segments spending change, by usage frequency, October 2011
Impact of calorie counts
Figure 67: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by usage frequency, October 2011
Universal view of improvements
Figure 68: Improvement for restaurants, by usage frequency, October 2011
Customization and technology matter to heavy users
Figure 69: Attitudes toward restaurants and eating out, by usage frequency, October 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
- AFC Enterprises Inc.
- Applebee's International Inc.
- Arby's Restaurant Group
- Bob Evans Farms Inc.
- Brinker International Inc.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Burger King Corporation
- California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
- Church's Chicken
- CiCi Enterprises, LP
- CKE Restaurants Inc.
- Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
- Darden Restaurants Inc.
- Denny's Corporation
- Domino's Pizza LLB
- Dunkin' Brands
- Facebook, Inc.
- Fazoli's Restaurants, Inc.
- Firehouse Restaurant Group, Inc.
- Food and Drug Administration
- Food Distributors International
- Food Marketing Institute
- Foursquare
- Hardee's Food Systems, Inc.
- International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
- International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
- International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
- International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
- International Franchise Association (IFA)
- KFC Corporation
- Luigi Lavazza SpA
- McDonald's U.S.A.
- Moe's Southwest Grill, LLC
- Morton's Restaurant Group, Inc.
- National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
- National Restaurant Association (NRA)
- National Retail Federation (NRF)
- O'Charley's Inc.
- Organic Trade Association
- OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc.
- P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
- Pandora Media, Inc.
- Panera Bread Company
- Papa John's International, Inc.
- Pizza Hut Inc
- Produce Marketing Association
- Ruby Tuesday Inc.
- Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
- Subway
- TGI Friday's
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
- The Johnny Rockets Group, Inc.
- The Quiznos Master LLC
- The Wendy's Company
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S. Bureau of the Census
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- University of Michigan, The
- US Department of Commerce
- USA Today
- Weight Watchers International Inc.
- Yum! Brands Inc.
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