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Dining Out: A 2012 Look Ahead - US - January 2012

In spite of the economic ups and downs of the past year, consumers have found a way to include dining out in their budget, perhaps becoming recession weary and finding restaurants a form of creature comfort. So much the more going forward as the economy begins to pick up.

In this report, Mintel examines restaurant economics and drivers, restaurant and menu trends, and consumer attitudes and habits to provide a glimpse into the future of the dining-out industry. Insights from this report will help operators and foodservice suppliers create high-demand products and build effective marketing messages. All restaurant stakeholders will want to read this report in order to understand:

  • The size of the market trended over time with analysis of future growth projections
  • Factors hindering/helping the industry realize its greatest profit potential
  • Five restaurant operational/menu trends that will drive the industry through 2012 and beyond
  • Successful marketing strategies and messages that resonate with consumers
  • Menu trends in terms of items, prices and marketing claims
  • Consumers’ favorite restaurant segments and their 2012 restaurant spending plans
  • Consumer attitudes about calorie disclosure, menu options, technology and areas for restaurant improvement

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Data sources
        • Consumer survey data
          • Advertising creative
            • Abbreviations and terms
              • Abbreviations
                • Terms
                • Executive Summary

                    • Market drivers
                      • 2012 look ahead at menu/operational trends
                        • Menu insights
                          • Restaurant usage
                            • Changes in restaurant spending
                              • Impact of calorie disclosure and the economy
                                • Restaurants and menu options
                                  • The potential for technology
                                    • Improvement for restaurants
                                      • Interest in preparation techniques
                                        • Familiarity and interest in regional cuisines
                                        • Insights and Opportunities

                                          • Prepare for the law
                                              • Figure 1: Moe’s Southwest Grill’s Food Mission Wheel, December 2011
                                            • Regional rivalry
                                                • Figure 2: Familiarity of and interest in regional American BBQ, October 2011
                                            • Inspire Insights

                                                • Trend: Access All Areas
                                                  • Trend: Patriot Games
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Sales and forecast of restaurants
                                                          • Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Figure 4: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                        • Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
                                                          • Figure 5: U.S. sales at full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Figure 6: U.S. sales at full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                        • Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
                                                          • Figure 7: U.S. sales at limited-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Figure 8: U.S. sales at limited-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                            • Figure 9: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2006-16
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Unemployment rate looks more hopeful
                                                              • Figure 10: Incidence of unemployment and underemployment, Jan. 2007-Nov. 2011
                                                            • Disposable personal income inches up
                                                              • Figure 11: Real disposable income, Jan. 2007-Oct. 2011
                                                            • Consumer sentiment, cautiously optimistic
                                                              • Figure 12: Consumer sentiment, March 2007-Nov. 2011
                                                            • Restaurant Performance Index looks hopeful
                                                              • Figure 13: Restaurant Performance Index, Jan. 2009-Oct. 2011
                                                            • Menu labeling legislation will likely impact the industry
                                                              • Figure 14: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2008
                                                          • 2012 Look Ahead

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • American regionalism
                                                                  • Figure 15: Familiarity of and interest in regional American cuisines, October 2011
                                                                • Double-sided menus
                                                                  • Price
                                                                    • Health
                                                                      • Consumer control
                                                                        • Slow it down
                                                                            • Figure 16: Interest in preparation techniques, October 2011
                                                                          • Imported ideas
                                                                          • Marketing Strategies

                                                                            • Overview
                                                                              • Television
                                                                                • Domino’s
                                                                                    • Figure 17: Domino’s, raising the bar television ad, 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 18: Domino’s, artisan pizza—try it television ad, 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 19: Hardee’s, made fresh television ad, 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 20: Hardee’s, unbeatable hand television ad, 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Popeyes, I’m dancing television ad, 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Wendy’s, hot and juicy television ad, 2011
                                                                                  • Websites and other digital media
                                                                                    • Pizza Hut
                                                                                        • Figure 23: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for pizzahut.com, May-Oct 2011
                                                                                      • IHOP
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for IHOP.com, May-Oct 2011
                                                                                      • Applebee’s
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for applebees.com, May-Oct 2011
                                                                                      • Outback Steakhouse
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Outback Steakhouse Facebook contest, December 2011
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Quantcast.com traffic estimates for outback.com, May-Oct 2011
                                                                                      • Cause marketing
                                                                                      • Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Items

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Top menu items
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
                                                                                            • Menu item prices
                                                                                              • Figure 29: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence and price, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
                                                                                          • Menu Insights Analysis—Top Menu Item Claims

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Geographical claims
                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Top 10 American geographic claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
                                                                                                • Menu item claims
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
                                                                                                • Restaurant Usage

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Choice restaurant types
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Restaurant usage, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                    • Frequency of visits
                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Restaurant monthly visits, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Restaurant monthly visits, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Restaurant monthly visits, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                  • Changes in Restaurant Spending

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Future spending intentions
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Restaurant spending next year, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Restaurant spending next year, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Restaurant spending next year, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                      • Segments at which consumers plan to spend more
                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Restaurant segments spending change, October 2011
                                                                                                    • Impact of Calorie Disclosure and the Economy

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Action plan when calories are posted
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                        • Economic impact on dining out
                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Impact of the recession on dining out, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Impact of the recession on dining out, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Impact of the recession on dining out, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                      • Restaurants and Menu Options

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Attitudes about restaurant menus
                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Attitudes toward restaurant menu options, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                          • The Potential for Technology

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Attitudes toward menu-ordering technology
                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Attitudes toward technology for ordering, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Attitudes toward technology for ordering, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                            • Improvement for Restaurants

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Ways to improve restaurants
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Improvement for restaurants, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Improvement for restaurants, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Improvement for restaurants, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                • Interest in Preparation Techniques

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Meaningful descriptions
                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Interest in preparation techniques, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Interest in preparation techniques, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Interest in preparation techniques, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Familiarity with and Interest in Regional Cuisines

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Familiarity with various regional cuisines
                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Familiarity of regional American cuisines, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                      • Interest in various regional cuisines
                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Familiarity of and interest in regional American cuisines, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Interest in regional American cuisines, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Interest in regional American cuisines, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Interest in regional American cuisines, by annual household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Custom Groups—Light, Medium, Heavy

                                                                                                                        • Spending plans revealed
                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Restaurant spending next year, by usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Restaurant segments spending change, by usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Impact of calorie counts
                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Impact of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Universal view of improvements
                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Improvement for restaurants, by usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                        • Customization and technology matter to heavy users
                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Attitudes toward restaurants and eating out, by usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                      • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                        • AFC Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Applebee's International Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Arby's Restaurant Group
                                                                                                                        • Bob Evans Farms Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Brinker International Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                        • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                        • California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                                                                                                                        • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Church's Chicken
                                                                                                                        • CiCi Enterprises, LP
                                                                                                                        • CKE Restaurants Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                        • Darden Restaurants Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Denny's Corporation
                                                                                                                        • Domino's Pizza LLB
                                                                                                                        • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                        • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Fazoli's Restaurants, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Firehouse Restaurant Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                        • Food Distributors International
                                                                                                                        • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                        • Foursquare
                                                                                                                        • Hardee's Food Systems, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
                                                                                                                        • International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
                                                                                                                        • International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
                                                                                                                        • International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
                                                                                                                        • International Franchise Association (IFA)
                                                                                                                        • KFC Corporation
                                                                                                                        • Luigi Lavazza SpA
                                                                                                                        • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                        • Moe's Southwest Grill, LLC
                                                                                                                        • Morton's Restaurant Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                        • National Restaurant Association (NRA)
                                                                                                                        • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                        • O'Charley's Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Organic Trade Association
                                                                                                                        • OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Pandora Media, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                        • Papa John's International, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Pizza Hut Inc
                                                                                                                        • Produce Marketing Association
                                                                                                                        • Ruby Tuesday Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
                                                                                                                        • Subway
                                                                                                                        • TGI Friday's
                                                                                                                        • The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
                                                                                                                        • The Johnny Rockets Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                        • The Quiznos Master LLC
                                                                                                                        • The Wendy's Company
                                                                                                                        • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                        • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                        • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                        • University of Michigan, The
                                                                                                                        • US Department of Commerce
                                                                                                                        • USA Today
                                                                                                                        • Weight Watchers International Inc.
                                                                                                                        • Yum! Brands Inc.

                                                                                                                        Dining Out: A 2012 Look Ahead - US - January 2012

                                                                                                                        £2,684.63 (Excl.Tax)