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Dining Out: A 2016 Look Ahead - US - January 2016

The restaurant industry in 2015 was shaped by the continued blurring of traditional foodservice segments, volatile commodity prices, and the strengthened relationship of technology and food. 2016 is poised to be a positive year for the restaurant industry, though a number of customers plan on spending less money at restaurants or plan on visiting fewer restaurants in general. The tastes of consumers are changing as more consumers test international foods and even the definition of healthy has shifted recently. Restaurants must continue to understand what motivates consumers to dine out and how to attract those who plan on spending less.

This report examines the following areas:

  • Certain demographics plan on cutting back on restaurant expenditures
  • Price concerns prohibit beverage ordering
  • LSR/other growth outpacing FSR growth

This report focuses on the overall state of full service restaurants, limited service restaurants, and other specialty limited service establishments (eg, snack shops). It will cover some of the major news stories/trends of 2015 and how these will affect 2016. It will also explain major trends that will shape foodservice in 2016 as well as analyze general consumer dining habits.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Certain demographics plan on cutting back on restaurant expenditures
            • Figure 1: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
          • Price concerns prohibit beverage ordering
            • Figure 2: Beverages at restaurants, “It’s too expensive to order beverages at restaurants,” October 2015
          • LSR/other growth outpacing FSR growth
            • Figure 3: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, market share, 2005-15
          • The opportunities
            • The restaurant industry is projected to grow further
              • Figure 4: Total US sales and fan chart forecast restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
            • “Natural” is the top buzzword for 2016
              • Figure 5: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
            • Customization is universally appealing
              • Figure 6: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Outlook is positive for the restaurant industry
                • Sales of LSRs and other establishments surpass FSRs
                  • Future of commodity prices uncertain
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Historic and projected sales performance
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Both FSRs and LSRs will have strong growth/LSRs gain market share
                      • Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                    • Full service restaurants
                      • Figure 12: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 14: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                    • Limited service restaurants/other foodservice
                      • Figure 15: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 16: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 17: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Factors

                    • General economic prosperity bodes well for restaurants
                      • Figure 18: Unemployment and underemployment rates in the US, January 2007-October 2015
                    • Food health and safety
                      • Figure 19: Land O Lakes: European Style Super Premium Salted Butter
                      • Figure 20: Siggi’s: Icelandic Style Vanilla Flavored Strained Whole-Milk Yogurt
                    • Volatile year for commodities
                      • Figure 21: YOY commodity price changes, September 2014 to September 2015
                  • Foodservice Trends for 2016

                      • Unpredictable proteins
                        • New bar stars
                          • Segment shifting
                            • Message more than marketing
                                • Extreme living – Balance or bust
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Technology’s role in foodservice
                                    • Keep it simple
                                      • Handcrafted
                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                        • Legacy brands struggle for identity
                                          • Soda goes flat
                                          • What’s Next?

                                            • Better beverages
                                              • Fast casuals go premium
                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                • Highlight the use of natural ingredients
                                                  • Changes in future behavior depend on demographics
                                                    • Beverages face a value problem
                                                    • A Look Ahead – Dining and Spending

                                                      • Consumers split on future behaviors
                                                        • Figure 23: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                        • Figure 24: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                    • A Look Ahead – Desired Descriptors

                                                      • Natural is the top descriptor for 2016
                                                        • Figure 25: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
                                                        • Figure 26: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more and menu incidence, October 2015
                                                      • Descriptors and demographics
                                                        • Figure 27: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
                                                        • Figure 28: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
                                                      • Descriptors appealing to the “Spend More” consumer
                                                        • Figure 29: Desired food and drink characteristics, October 2015
                                                    • Segment Visitation

                                                      • Innovation abounds at every segment, even among less-frequented establishments
                                                        • Figure 30: Visitation to foodservice establishments in the past month, October 2015
                                                      • Restaurant visitation by demographics
                                                        • Figure 31: Visitation to foodservice establishments in the past month, snack shop, October 2015
                                                    • Beverage Factors

                                                      • Beverages must be positioned as a value
                                                        • Figure 32: Beverages at restaurants, October 2015
                                                      • Beverages – Coffee/tea
                                                        • Beverages – Alcohol
                                                          • Beverages – CSDs
                                                          • Hispanics

                                                            • Hispanics dining attitudes and behaviors
                                                              • Figure 33: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
                                                              • Figure 34: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
                                                            • Hispanics and beverages
                                                              • Figure 35: Beverages at restaurants, October 2015
                                                          • Important Restaurant Considerations

                                                            • Customization remains a top priority
                                                              • Figure 36: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
                                                              • Figure 37: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
                                                          • Correspondence Analysis

                                                            • Methodology
                                                              • Correspondence analysis reveals strengths/opportunities
                                                                • Figure 38: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
                                                            • The Restaurant Experience

                                                              • Quality and price are top-of-mind but look to secondary restaurant experiences
                                                                • Figure 39: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
                                                            • Restaurants and Tech/Social Media

                                                              • The relationship between technology and restaurants will strengthen in 2016
                                                                • Figure 40: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
                                                            • Restaurant Preferences/Attitudes by Area

                                                              • Urbanites are trendsetters, rural diners are very price conscious
                                                                • Figure 41: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
                                                                • Figure 42: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                                • Figure 43: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                            • Age Differences

                                                              • The under 45 crowd
                                                                • Figure 44: Number of restaurant visits in the past month, October 2015
                                                                • Figure 45: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, “customizes my order exactly as I like it,” October 2015
                                                              • Differences between Millennials
                                                                • Figure 46: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                                • Figure 47: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
                                                                • Figure 48: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
                                                            • Dining Out – Qualitative Assessment

                                                              • Restaurant choice factors
                                                                • Price factors
                                                                  • The role of sustainability at restaurants
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                          • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – Market

                                                                                    • Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 51: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                                                    • Figure 53: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 54: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 55: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Figure 56: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                  • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                    • Figure 57: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, October 2015
                                                                                • Appendix – Foodservice Trends 2016

                                                                                  Companies Covered

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                                                                                  Dining Out: A 2016 Look Ahead - US - January 2016

                                                                                  £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)