Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

Dining Out: A 2017 Look Ahead - US - December 2016

"Restaurant sales are predicted to grow at a steady rate with yearly growth near 4% through 2021. Consumers are craving unique experiences, and legacy chains can no longer rely on what’s worked in the past, especially as the environment becomes more competitive. Across demographics, consumers still find value in a dining out experience that offers something they’re unlikely to prepare at home, whether that’s in a traditional restaurant, retail setting, or gourmet food hall."

- Diana Kelter, Foodservice Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • The decline of grocery prices entices consumers to cook at home
  • New dining out segments create new forms of competition
  • The service equation

The purpose of this Report is to analyze consumers’ attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions surrounding their current dining out behavior and anticipated behavior in 2017. The report will also examine how dining out varies across demographics.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following restaurant definitions:

  • QSRs (quick service restaurants) – Used interchangeably with “fast food,” QSRs specialize in inexpensive, convenient meals. There is no waiter service, no alcoholic beverages, and low price point. Examples include: McDonald’s, KFC, Taco Bell, Wendy’s, and Pizza Hut.
  • Fast casual restaurants – These establishments are characterized by a higher price point than QSRs though not as high as full service restaurants. Fast casuals do not offer waiter service and may or may not serve alcohol. Examples include: Chipotle, Panera Bread, Shake Shack, and Blaze Pizza.
  • LSRs (limited service restaurants) – These establishments provide food services where customers usually select and order items and pay before dining. Food/drink may be consumed on the premises, offered as carryout, or delivered to the customer’s location. These may also sell alcoholic beverages. LSRs include both QSRs and fast casual restaurants. The other category within LSRs (as seen in the Market Size and Forecast) includes snacks and non-alcoholic beverage bars, cafeterias, grills, and grill buffets.
  • FSRs (full service restaurants) – These establishments have waiter/waitress service in which customers order and are served while seated. These may also sell alcoholic beverages and offer carryout services. They include the restaurant segments: midscale, casual dining, and fine dining.
  • MMI (Mintel Menu Insights) – MMI is a quarterly census of restaurant brands covering all commercial segments and US census regions/divisions, with trends going back to Q2 2004. MMI tracks more than 30 unique menu item attributes including flavor, preparation (physical and/or cooking), menu type/section, cuisine type, menu claims, etc., grouped into six major categories from macro restaurant, menu, plate, item dish, and beverage to micro ingredient detail.
  • MMI Legacy Data – This data is reflective of the historic MMI database prior to any expansion data being incorporated. This data can be trended back to 2004 and is representative of 580 restaurants and 3,000 menus.
  • MMI Expansion Data – This data is reflective of the MMI expansion that increased restaurant coverage from 580 to 1,500 and increased menu collection from 3,000 to 8,000. The expansion data incorporates expanded c-store coverage, including data for hot food, cold prepacked food, breakfast menus, and all self-serve beverage options.

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • The decline of grocery prices entices consumers to cook at home
            • Figure 1: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
          • New dining out segments create new forms of competition
            • Figure 2: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
          • The service equation
            • Figure 3: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Breweries become a destination
              • Figure 4: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
            • The merging of coffee shop and bar
              • Figure 5: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
            • Consumers plan to seek out more social dining experiences
              • Figure 6: Dining out behavior, September 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • iGens are becoming a generation to watch
                • Millennials are putting off marriage and staying in cities
                  • Segments are blurring across industries
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Restaurant sales expected to grow in a shifting landscape
                      • Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • LSRs predicted to grow at a slightly higher pace than FSRs
                      • Figure 10: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2016
                      • Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 12: Total US Revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Factors

                    • Consumer confidence
                      • Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, November 2015-November 2016
                    • Millennials continue to shape the dining out scene
                      • Figure 15: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2005-15
                    • Restaurants starting to take note of iGen preferences
                      • Figure 16: Population by generation, 2017
                      • Figure 17: Generations by Hispanic origin, 2017
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Grocery store prices versus restaurant prices
                      • Figure 18: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
                    • Industries step outside of their core
                    • Key Trends – What You Need to Know

                      • Travel and food: A perfect marriage
                        • Legacy chains are struggling
                          • On a TV near you
                          • What’s Working?

                            • Will travel for food
                              • Craft beer and food find a common ground
                                • International fast casual growth
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Legacy chains
                                    • Traditional entrees
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • The flavor spectrum continues to widen
                                        • Food waste 2.0
                                          • Pop culture restaurant experiences
                                          • MMI Data

                                            • Vegetables on the menu
                                              • Today – Vegetables demonstrate value in health and taste profiles
                                                • Figure 19: Menu incidence of vegetarian/vegan menu item claims and vegetable preparation methods, Q3 2015-16
                                              • Tomorrow – Butcher methods turn toward alternative meat
                                                • Hard cider
                                                  • Today – Hard cider on the menu
                                                    • Figure 20: Menu incidence of hard cider and fruit flavored beer, Q3 2015-16
                                                  • Tomorrow – Served with a boost of flavor
                                                    • Bowls
                                                      • Today – The bowl trends
                                                        • Figure 21: Menu incidence of bowls as a menu item dish, Q3 2015-16
                                                      • Tomorrow – Foodservice bowl-inspired options in retail
                                                        • Brunch
                                                          • Today and tomorrow – A modern brunch occasion
                                                            • Figure 22: Menu incidence of brunch menus, Q3 2015-16
                                                          • Today and tomorrow – Marketing, ethical and geographical claims
                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                            • Young consumers enjoy beverage variety
                                                              • Retail settings become more appealing from a foodservice perspective
                                                                • Authentic international restaurants are top of mind
                                                                • Where Consumers Are Dining

                                                                  • Traditional segments still drive visitation, but face increased competition
                                                                    • Figure 23: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
                                                                    • Figure 24: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
                                                                  • Younger consumers are not giving up on grocery stores
                                                                      • Figure 25: Retailer food visitation, by generation, September 2016
                                                                    • Food halls become the new food court
                                                                      • Figure 26: Gourmet food hall visitation, by generation, September 2016
                                                                    • Non-Millennial parents more likely to focus on traditional dining segments
                                                                        • Figure 27: Restaurant segment visitation, Millennial parents vs non-Millennial parents, September 2016
                                                                    • Dining Out Behavior – A Look into 2017

                                                                      • Consumers plan to enjoy more leisurely meals
                                                                        • Figure 28: Dining out behavior, September 2016
                                                                      • Millennials continue to crave dining out experiences
                                                                        • Figure 29: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by generation, September 2016
                                                                      • Hispanics represent their own dining out preferences
                                                                        • Figure 30: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2016
                                                                    • Attitudes toward Dining Out

                                                                      • The stress-free component
                                                                        • Figure 31: Statement agreement toward dining out, September 2016
                                                                        • Figure 32: Statement agreement – Strongly agree, “Dining out is a good way to enjoy food I don’t typically prepare at home,” by gender, September 2016
                                                                      • Parents enjoy dining out
                                                                        • Figure 33: Statement agreement - Any agree, by parents versus non-parents, September 2016
                                                                      • The travel bug
                                                                        • Figure 34: Statement agreement – Any agree, “Trying new restaurants is an important component of travel,” by age, September 2017
                                                                    • Beverage Preferences for 2017

                                                                      • Iced tea leads in beverage preference
                                                                        • Figure 35: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, September 2016
                                                                      • Millennials and iGens crave beverage variety
                                                                          • Figure 36: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age, September 2016
                                                                        • Young, high-income consumers are a key alcohol demographic
                                                                          • Figure 37: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age and income, September 2016
                                                                      • Menu Preferences

                                                                        • Premium and natural remain key menu preferences
                                                                          • Figure 38: Menu preferences, September 2016
                                                                        • Hispanics value direct health offerings
                                                                          • Figure 39: Menu preferences, by Hispanics, September 2016
                                                                      • 2017 Restaurant Concept Trends

                                                                        • Traditional dining habits still remain important
                                                                            • Figure 40: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
                                                                          • iGens show a greater interest toward technology advances
                                                                            • Figure 41: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by generation, September 2016
                                                                          • Meal-kit popularity provides a new opportunity for restaurants
                                                                            • Figure 42: Interest in restaurants offering more meal kits, by parents vs nonparents and age, September 2017
                                                                          • Hispanics display more brand loyalty
                                                                            • Figure 43: Select restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by Hispanics vs non-Hispanics, September 2016
                                                                          • The union of coffee and alcohol
                                                                            • Figure 44: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
                                                                            • Figure 45: Interest in seeing more cofeeehouses serve alcohol at night, by area, September 2016
                                                                        • The Delivery Target

                                                                          • Family meal bundles
                                                                              • Figure 46: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Tree output, September 2016
                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                                • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                                                        • Figure 47: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at current prices 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 48: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at inflation prices 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at current prices 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at inflation prices 2011-21
                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                      • CHAID analysis methodology
                                                                                        • Figure 51: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Table output, September 2016

                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                    Dining Out: A 2017 Look Ahead - US - December 2016

                                                                                    US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)