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Dining Out in 2018 - US - December 2017

"Restaurant sales are predicted to grow; however, on a more micro-level restaurants are struggling to maintain relevancy, with consumers faced with a variety of options to choose from when dining out. Chain and independent restaurants each play a vital role in meeting consumer dining preferences across demographics. In order to succeed, restaurants have to focus on their core value propositions from an experience, cost, and menu perspective."
- Diana Kelter, Foodservice Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Consumers plan to cook at home more in 2018
  • Restaurant sales are growing, but individual restaurants are struggling

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Consumers plan to cook at home more in 2018
            • Figure 1: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, “cook at home,” consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
          • Restaurant sales are growing, but individual restaurants are struggling
            • Figure 2: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
          • The opportunities
            • Casual is the name of the game in 2018
              • Figure 3: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
            • Millennials are not giving up on chains
              • Figure 4: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
            • Consumers are motivated by dining out socially
              • Figure 5: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, September 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • FSRs are growing at a slower rate than LSRs, but still serve a core purpose
                • Natural disasters impact tourism and employment across the country
                  • Nearly half of consumers consider themselves cooking enthusiasts
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Restaurant sales continue to increase despite restaurants feeling the pressure
                      • Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Figure 8: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at inflation prices, 2012-22
                  • Market Breakdown

                      • LSRs are taking a slight lead from FSRs
                        • Figure 9: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, by current prices, 2017
                      • The fast casual segment is not immune to restaurant competition
                        • Figure 10: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
                      • FSRs still desired for specific occasions
                          • Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Perspective

                        • C-stores get competitive for the breakfast hour
                          • A state of cooking at home in America
                          • Market Factors

                            • Consumers are overloaded by restaurant choices
                              • Natural disaster recovery hits the restaurant industry
                              • Key Trends – What You Need to Know

                                • Pop culture
                                  • Cashless dining
                                    • Casual dining chains continue to struggle
                                    • What’s Working?

                                      • The power of pop culture
                                        • Asian flavors and ingredients are a cuisine to watch
                                          • Beverage innovation shakes things up on the menu
                                          • What’s Struggling?

                                            • Mainstream casual dining chains continue to lose relevancy
                                              • As healthy food becomes more craveable, the spectrum of health widens for foodservice operators
                                              • What’s Next?

                                                • No cash restaurants
                                                  • Consumer interest in the food supply chain gains steam
                                                    • Social media moves beyond pretty pictures of food
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Breweries and coffee/tea shops are segments to watch in 2018
                                                        • Family style meals drive interest
                                                          • Convenience drives chain restaurant visitation
                                                          • Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurant Visitation

                                                            • Visitation to FSRs and LSRs nearly equal
                                                              • Figure 12: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, September 2017
                                                            • The affordability and convenience of LSRs is a key priority for iGens
                                                              • Figure 13: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, by generation, September 2017
                                                            • QSRs are finding their core looking ahead to 2018
                                                              • Figure 14: Restaurant visitation, fast food versus fast casual, September 2017
                                                            • Gourmet food halls are a niche dining sector
                                                              • Figure 15: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2017
                                                            • Fast casuals cater to a middle- and upper-class consumer
                                                              • Figure 16: Restaurant visitation, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
                                                            • Breweries are a competitive force for traditional restaurants
                                                              • Figure 17: Local bar/brewery visitation, by HH income, gender and age, September 2017
                                                            • Coffee/tea shops look beyond beverages
                                                              • Figure 18: Coffee/tea shop visitation, by age and HH income, September 2017
                                                          • Chain and Independent Restaurant Visitation

                                                            • Chain restaurants drive stronger visitation than independent restaurants
                                                              • Figure 19: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, September 2017
                                                            • Fast casuals have a near equal divide among independent and chain restaurant diners
                                                              • Figure 20: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by restaurant segment, September 2017
                                                            • Millennials still value chain restaurants
                                                              • Figure 21: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
                                                            • Black and Hispanic consumers skew toward chain restaurants
                                                              • Figure 22: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by race, September 2017
                                                            • The Northeast leads in independent restaurant visitation
                                                              • Figure 23: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by region, September 2017
                                                          • Motivation for Visiting Chains versus Independents

                                                            • Consumers value menu familiarity at chains and menu variety at independents
                                                              • Figure 24: Chain restaurant motivations, September 2017
                                                              • Figure 25: Independent restaurant motivations, September 2017
                                                            • Consumers don’t have negative associations toward chain restaurants
                                                              • Menu variety and innovation is a key area of importance for independent restaurants
                                                                • Figure 26: TURF analysis – Independent restaurant motivators, September 2017
                                                              • Men are not driven to chains for trendy new flavors
                                                                • Figure 27: Chain restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
                                                              • Women enjoy supporting local businesses, men value unique beverages
                                                                • Figure 28: Independent restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
                                                              • Parents value convenience and affordability when dining at chain restaurants
                                                                • Figure 29: Chain restaurant motivations, by parents, September 2017
                                                              • Value deals are important for iGens, Millennials want a seamless ordering experience at chain restaurants
                                                                • Figure 30: Chain restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
                                                              • Unique menu items are more valuable to Millennials than high-quality ingredients at independent restaurants
                                                                • Figure 31: Independent restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
                                                              • Urban environments are working to create a stronger local spirit
                                                                • Figure 32: Independent restaurant motivations, by residential location, September 2017
                                                            • Planned Dining Out Behavior in 2018

                                                              • Consumers want to cook at home more in 2018
                                                                • Figure 33: Planned dining out behavior, September 2017
                                                              • Younger consumers plan to use mobile ordering in 2018 more than delivery
                                                                • Figure 34: Planned dining out behavior, consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
                                                              • Parents plan to reserve dining out for the weekend
                                                                • Figure 35: Planned dining out behavior, plan to do more, by parents, September 2017
                                                              • Hispanics are a core snacking demographic
                                                                • Figure 36: Planned dining out behavior, ”Plan to visit a specialty snack shop,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
                                                            • Attitudes towards Dining Out

                                                              • Dinner is a key meal for dining out
                                                                • Figure 37: Dining out attitudes, September 2017
                                                              • Most consumers are not overwhelmed by food trends
                                                                • Figure 38: Dining out attitudes, by gender, September 2017
                                                              • Millennials value when restaurants focus on one type of dish done well
                                                                • Figure 39: Dining out attitudes, by generation, September 2017
                                                                • Figure 40: Dining out attitudes, by urban and suburban Millennials, September 2017
                                                            • Menu Interest by Restaurant Segments

                                                              • Family style meals make a resurgence
                                                                • Figure 41: Menu interest by restaurant segment, September 2017
                                                                • Figure 42: Interest in family meals at FSRs, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
                                                              • Consumers want more packaged snacks at coffee/tea shops
                                                                • Figure 43: Interest in packaged snack options at coffee/tea shops, by age and HH income, September 2017
                                                                • Figure 44: Menu interest by restaurant segment, by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
                                                              • Small plates get shifted on menus, while meatless options continue to grow
                                                                • Figure 45: Growth and decline of menu dishes by restaurant segment, Q3 2015-Q3 2017
                                                            • 2018 Restaurant Trend Interest

                                                              • Consumers want more casual restaurant atmospheres in 2018
                                                                • Figure 46: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
                                                              • Older consumers are not interested in new trends, but they still care about food
                                                                • iGens are a pop culture demographic
                                                                  • Figure 47: Restaurant trend interest, by generation, September 2017
                                                                • Lower income consumers value the grocerant concept
                                                                  • Figure 48: Restaurant trend interest, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                • Data sources
                                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                                      • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                            • A note on socioeconomic levels
                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                • Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 50: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 51: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at inflation prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 52: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 53: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at Inflation prices, 2012-22
                                                                            • Appendix – Infegy Methodology

                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                  • Figure 54: Dining out attitudes, rebased by fine dining consumers, September 2017
                                                                              • Appendix – TURF Analysis

                                                                                • Methodology
                                                                                  • Figure 55: Table – TURF analysis – Independent motivators, September 2017

                                                                              Dining Out in 2018 - US - December 2017

                                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)