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Disposable Baby Products - US - April 2016

"After years of flat or declining sales, the disposable baby products market is bouncing back as birth rates and consumer confidence recover and parents allocate more spend to premium products."

- Margie Nanninga, Home & Personal Care Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Disposable baby product sales rebound in 2014 and 2015
  • Parents seek cost savings when possible
  • While birth rates are increasing, they are still behind 2007 highs

Going forward, growth may be accelerated by product innovations, with products that simplify baby care routines or offer health and wellness benefits being of high interest to parents.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Disposable baby product sales rebound in 2014 and 2015
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Parents seek cost savings when possible
            • Figure 2: Cost-savings attitudes toward disposable diapers, November 2015
          • While birth rates are increasing, they are still behind 2007 highs
            • Figure 3: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
          • The opportunities
            • Find ways to engage Hispanic parents
              • Figure 4: Interest in disposable baby product innovations – interested in and willing to pay more for, by Hispanic origin, November 2015
            • Broaden usage occasions for wipes and personal care products
              • Figure 5: Usage habits for disposable wipes and baby personal care, November 2015
            • Product innovations, health and wellness benefits may increase consumer spend
              • Figure 6: Interest is disposable baby product innovations, November 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market - What You Need To Know

              • Disposable baby product sales rebound
                • Market growth driven by strong disposable diaper sales
                  • Green movement tempers growth, emotional parenting presents opportunities
                    • Stabilizing birth rates bode well for market, though numbers still behind 2007
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Disposable baby product sales rebound
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Disposable diapers largest segment, all segments experience growth
                        • Figure 9: Share of disposable baby products sales, by segment, 2015 (est.)
                        • Figure 10: Sales of disposable baby products, by segment, 2010-2015(est.)
                    • Market Perspective

                      • The green movement challenges disposable baby product sales
                        • Figure 11: Trial of reusable/cloth diapers, by Hispanic origin, age, and household income of parent, November 2015
                      • Online purchasing a threat to brick-and-mortar retailers
                        • Parents shop differently based on segment, “gentle” a common theme
                            • Figure 12: Claims made in new disposable diapers and baby wipes product launches, by percentage of products making claim, February 2015-January 2016
                          • Diaper-changing challenges differ by child’s age – added struggles for dads
                            • In their words
                              • Emotions run high when caring for babies
                                • Figure 13: Pampers, “A newborn journey of firsts,” television ad, 2015
                            • Market Factors

                              • Rebounding birth and fertility rates drive market growth
                                • Figure 14: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
                              • Average age of moms increases
                                • Figure 15: US birth rates, by age of mother, 1990-2014
                              • Growth tempered by Hispanics, who are less invested in disposable baby products
                                • Figure 16: Annual births and fertility rates, by race and Hispanic origin of mother, 2003-14
                              • More confident consumers can lead to higher spend on premium products
                                • Figure 17: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2010-November 2015
                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                              • Market dominated by P&G and Kimberly-Clark, P&G steals share
                                • Pampers sales surge, adult and natural offerings boost personal care segment
                                  • Private label loses steam, fewer personal care items being used
                                    • Premium benefits, alternate formats capitalize on consumer confidence
                                    • Manufacturer Sales of Disposable Baby Products

                                      • Market dominated by P&G and Kimberly-Clark, P&G steals share
                                        • Manufacturer sales of disposable baby products
                                          • Figure 18: Manufacturer sales of disposable baby products, 2014-15
                                      • What’s Working?

                                        • Robust marketing campaign helps Pampers reach parents
                                          • Figure 19: Pampers Swaddlers – trust commercial, July 2015
                                          • Figure 20: Pampers – How to prepare for a newborn baby – Essential tips, March 2013
                                          • Figure 21: MULO sales of select Pampers and Goodnites products, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
                                        • Sensitive, gentle claims stand out in wipes segment
                                          • Figure 22: MULO sales of select sensitive/gentle baby wipes, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
                                        • Natural and organic brands capitalize on concerns over ingredients
                                          • Figure 23: MULO sales of select natural and organic baby products, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
                                        • Adult personal care brands capitalize on consumer trust
                                          • Figure 24: MULO sales of select baby care products from adult brands, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                        • Private label loses steam as parents seek branded options
                                          • Figure 25: MULO sales of select private label disposable baby products, 2012-15
                                        • In their words
                                          • Disposable training pants have yet to be impacted by higher birth rates
                                            • Figure 26: MULO sales of select disposable training pants, 2012-15
                                          • Parents use fewer personal care products on babies, tempering segment growth
                                            • Figure 27: MULO sales of select baby personal care segments, 2012-15
                                        • What’s Next?

                                          • Premium benefits set products apart
                                            • Alternate formats, products that simplify childcare routines resonate with parents
                                              • Technology impacts retail landscape as well as product launches
                                                • Environmentally friendly diaper options compete with cloth diapers
                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Younger adults, multicultural parents more eager to start potty-training
                                                    • Moms, younger parents drive disposable baby product purchases
                                                      • Most purchases made at mass merchandisers, online making an impact
                                                        • Focus on cost-savings tempers disposable diaper sales
                                                          • Disposable wipes being used away from the changing table
                                                            • Baby personal care routines reveal both challenges and opportunities
                                                              • Health and wellness benefits, products that simplify routines could increase spend
                                                              • Potty-Training Ages

                                                                • Younger parents more eager to potty-train
                                                                  • Figure 28: Age child was potty-trained or parents plan to potty-train – youngest child, by age of parent, November 2015
                                                                • Black, Hispanic parents potty-train younger
                                                                  • Figure 29: Age child was potty-trained or parents plan to potty-train – youngest child, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
                                                                • In their words
                                                                • Product Purchases

                                                                  • Household usage of staples widespread
                                                                    • Figure 30: Usage of disposable baby products, November 2015
                                                                  • Moms drive household baby product purchases
                                                                    • Figure 31: Usage of select disposable baby products, by gender of parent, November 2015
                                                                  • Younger parents more invested in market
                                                                    • Figure 32: Usage of select disposable baby products, by age of parent, November 2015
                                                                  • Hispanics make fewer baby specific purchases
                                                                    • Figure 33: Usage of disposable baby products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
                                                                • Purchase Locations

                                                                  • Parents, especially moms, rely on mass merchandisers for purchases
                                                                    • Figure 34: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by gender of parent, November 2015
                                                                  • Online sales making an impact
                                                                    • Higher-income households more likely to shop specialty
                                                                      • Figure 35: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by household incomes of <$25K and $150K+, November 2015
                                                                    • Hispanics purchase from wider variety of stores
                                                                      • Figure 36: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
                                                                  • Purchase Habits for Disposable Diapers

                                                                    • Parents continue to seek cost-savings, tempering segment growth
                                                                      • Figure 37: Purchase habits for disposable diapers, November 2015
                                                                    • Dads influenced by marketing, moms rely on trial and error
                                                                      • Figure 38: Pampers – happy father’s day commercial, June 2015
                                                                      • Figure 39: Select purchase habits for disposable diapers, by gender of parent, November 2015
                                                                    • Hispanic purchasing habits may lower diaper sales
                                                                      • Figure 40: Select purchase habits for disposable diapers, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
                                                                    • In their words
                                                                    • Usage Habits for Baby Wipes

                                                                      • Disposable wipes being used away from the changing table
                                                                        • Figure 41: Usage habits for disposable wipes, by gender and age of parent, November 2015
                                                                      • Hispanic parents less likely to use wipes for other purposes
                                                                        • Figure 42: Usage habits for disposable wipes, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
                                                                      • In their words
                                                                      • Usage Habits for Baby Personal Care Products

                                                                        • Baby personal care routines reveal both challenges and opportunities
                                                                          • Figure 43: Usage habits for baby personal care products, by gender and age of parent, November 2015
                                                                          • Figure 44: Usage habits for baby personal care products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
                                                                      • Product Innovations

                                                                        • Parents willing to pay for products with wellness benefits, those that simplify routines
                                                                          • Figure 45: Interest is disposable baby product innovations, November 2015
                                                                        • Dads seek product innovations for simplification, reassurance
                                                                          • Figure 46: Interest in disposable baby product innovations – Any interest(net)*, by gender, November 2015
                                                                        • Product innovations may encourage increased spend among Hispanics
                                                                          • Figure 47: Interest is disposable baby product innovations – Interested in and willing to pay more for, by race/Hispanic origin November 2015
                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                        • Data sources
                                                                          • Sales data
                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                                • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                                                        • Figure 48: Total US sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 50: Female population by age, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 51: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 52: Population younger than age 6, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                        • Figure 53: MULO sales of disposable diapers/training pants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 54: MULO sales of baby wipes and moist towelettes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 55: MULO sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                        • Figure 56: Baby oil and baby lotion brand usage, July 2014-September 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 57: Baby/children’s shampoo brand usage, July 2014-September 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 58: Brands of pre-moistened wipes/cloths for babies used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 59: Disposable diaper/training pants brand usage, July 2014-September 2015

                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                    Disposable Baby Products - US - April 2016

                                                                                    £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)