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Disposable Baby Products - US - March 2012

The U.S. market for disposable baby care products has been severely impacted by the economic downturn, suffering sales losses each year between 2006 and 2011, and forecasts into 2016 paint a similarly grim picture. Further compounding the slide is a declining birth rate in the U.S., stemming demand for disposable baby care. However, the quickly growing Hispanic population, which is almost twice as likely as the non-Hispanic population to have kids under the age of six in the household, may help to decelerate future sales declines. This report features close analysis of these factors, as well as an in-depth examination of the following:

  • How private label brands have been able to grow sales in the poor economic climate, answering consumer demand for more affordable products
  • The threat posed by diaper services, which can capitalize on user concerns about the environmental impact of disposable baby products, especially disposable diapers
  • How mass merchandisers (used by three-quarters of respondents to Mintel’s exclusive survey) appeal to budget-conscious buyers
  • The role of market trends, such as natural/organic ingredients and better diaper leakage control
  • Marketing strategies employed by the top two diaper brands, Huggies and Pampers

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                      • Opportunities to slow sales declines
                        • Private label opportunity
                          • Licensed kid-friendly characters may help encourage potty training
                            • Better serving the “mom shopper”
                              • Sales drop between 2006 and 2011, and are set to fall further
                                • Slow economic recovery
                                  • Birthrates fall
                                    • Hispanic population growth could be a silver lining
                                      • Competitive context
                                        • Private label outpaces some national brands
                                          • Some eco-conscious buyers could switch to cloth diapers
                                            • Disposable diapers lead product segments
                                              • Supermarkets/mass stores offer convenient baby care shopping
                                                • Three top FDMx companies, but two decline and private label grows
                                                  • Natural/organic, leak-proof diapers, and lavender and chamomile top trends
                                                    • Marketing Huggies and Pampers
                                                      • The disposable baby care products user
                                                        • Purchases and usage of disposable baby care products
                                                          • Frequency of use
                                                            • Purchase locations for disposable baby care products
                                                              • Information seeking for disposable baby products
                                                                • Attitudes toward brands
                                                                  • Attitudes toward sustainable disposable baby products
                                                                    • Diaper purchasing habits
                                                                      • Impact of race/Hispanic origin
                                                                      • Insights and Opportunities

                                                                        • Stage is set for private label to make a bigger push
                                                                          • Licensed animated characters on diapers can help parents potty train
                                                                            • Retailers investing in the “mom shopper”
                                                                            • Inspire Insights

                                                                                • Trend: Open Diary
                                                                                  • Trend: Factory Fear
                                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Slow economic recovery leads to sales declines
                                                                                        • Dropping birthrates also drive sales losses
                                                                                          • Hispanic population growth could help turn sales around
                                                                                            • Disposable baby products market size and forecast
                                                                                              • Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                              • Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                • Figure 3: U.S. Retail sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                              • Walmart sales
                                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • The stagnant economy drives down sales
                                                                                                    • Unemployment/underemployment is still high
                                                                                                      • Figure 4: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-October 2011
                                                                                                    • Consumer confidence fluctuates but remains low in 2012
                                                                                                      • Figure 5: Consumer confidence, March 2007-November 2011
                                                                                                    • Birthrates decline
                                                                                                      • Figure 6: U.S. fertility rate and number of births, 1998-2009
                                                                                                    • Growing Hispanic population should help stave off further losses
                                                                                                      • Figure 7: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                                                                    • Hispanic households more likely than non-Hispanic household to have young children
                                                                                                      • Figure 8: Households, by race of householder and presence and ages of children, 2011
                                                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                                                    • Private label sales outpace top two FDMx companies
                                                                                                      • Environmental concerns could scale back use of disposable diapers
                                                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Diapers/training pants lead market but sales are in decline
                                                                                                            • Wipes/towelettes, baby care expected to rebound in the coming years
                                                                                                              • Sales of disposable baby products by segment
                                                                                                                • Figure 9: Sales of selected disposable baby products at current prices, by segment, 2006-16
                                                                                                            • Segment Performance—Diapers and Training Pants

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Diaper sales expected to drop due to emphasis on earlier potty training
                                                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of diapers and training pants
                                                                                                                    • Figure 10: Sales and forecast of diapers and training pants, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                • Segment Performance—Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes

                                                                                                                  • Key point
                                                                                                                    • Baby wipes/moist towelettes sales should recover with fits and starts
                                                                                                                      • Sales and forecast of baby wipes and moist towelettes
                                                                                                                        • Figure 11: Sales and forecast of baby wipes and moist towelettes, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                    • Segment Performance—Baby Care Needs

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Baby care needs not always used for babies
                                                                                                                          • Sales and forecast of baby care needs
                                                                                                                            • Figure 12: Sales and forecast of baby care needs, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                        • Retail Channels

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets are the most convenient baby care products retailer
                                                                                                                              • Drug stores sell half as much as food stores, but sales decline much less
                                                                                                                                • Other channels drop 8.3%
                                                                                                                                  • Channel sales of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 13: U.S. sales of disposable baby products, by channel, at current prices, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Supermarkets decline but retailers work to attract parents
                                                                                                                                      • Supermarket sales of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 14: Supermarket sales of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                    • Retail Channels—Drug Stores

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Drug chains also decline, but only slightly compared to food stores
                                                                                                                                          • Drug store sales of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 15: Drug store sales of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                        • Retail Channels—Other Channels

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Other channels decline each year between 2006 and 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Other channel sales of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 16: Other channel sales of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                            • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Kimberly-Clark leads market but drops 3.7% in year-ending 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Procter & Gamble also declines
                                                                                                                                                    • Johnson & Johnson lags but is the only top company to grow sales
                                                                                                                                                      • Private label grows 1.3% as the economic recovery drags on
                                                                                                                                                        • Leading disposable baby care products companies
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 17: Leading disposable baby care product companies, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Share—Disposable Diapers and Training Pants

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Despite declines, Kimberly-Clark’s Huggies Little Movers are a hit
                                                                                                                                                            • P&G lacks the new products that have helped Kimberly-Clark
                                                                                                                                                              • Private label grows amid household budget concerns
                                                                                                                                                                • Leading disposable diaper and training pants brands
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Leading disposable diapers and training pants brands, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Kimberly-Clark gains nearly 5% in disposable wipes FDMx sales
                                                                                                                                                                    • P&G drops 6.3% as Pampers Baby Fresh FDMx sales falter
                                                                                                                                                                      • Private label FDMx disposable wipes sales grow 4%
                                                                                                                                                                        • Leading baby wipes and moist towelettes brands
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading baby wipes and moist towelettes brands, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Share—Baby Care Needs

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • J&J gains 2.3% with baby ointment, soaps, and shampoo brands
                                                                                                                                                                            • Chesebrough-Pond’s grows slightly with Vaseline
                                                                                                                                                                              • Merck falls 3.9% as A+D brand ointments slip
                                                                                                                                                                                • Leading baby care needs brands
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 20: Leading baby care needs brands, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                                              • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Natural/organic ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Advanced leakage control diapers
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Lavender and chamomile as soothing agents
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brands and the Advertising Landscape

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kimberly-Clark: Huggies
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Brand analysis of Huggies, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Huggies Pull-Ups TV spot
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Huggies Pull-Ups television ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Procter & Gamble: Pampers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Brand analysis of Pampers, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pampers Cruisers TV spot
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Pampers Cruisers television ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Purchases and Usage of Disposable Baby Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • More than a quarter bought baby wipes in the last three months
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Purchases of disposable baby products, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • $100K+ least likely to use a range of disposable baby care products
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Purchases of disposable baby products, by household income, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brands Used Most

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Huggies wipes and diapers used most
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Brands of disposable baby care products used, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Frequency of Use

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Baby wipes used most frequently
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Frequency of use of disposable baby care products, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • $75K+ likely to use wipes, wash, shampoo products most frequently
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Frequency of use of disposable baby care products, by household income, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Purchase Locations for Disposable Baby Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Three quarters of respondents use mass merchandisers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 18-34s more likely than older respondents to use a range of retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Lower-income households most likely to use mass stores and dollar stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, by household income, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Information Seeking for Disposable Baby Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Half of respondents seek product advice from pediatricians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Information seeking for disposable baby products, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 18-34s much more likely than those aged 35+ to consult pediatrician for product advice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Information seeking for disposable baby products, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • $75K+ most likely to seek advice from many sources except pediatricians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Information seeking for disposable baby products, by household income, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes toward Brands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A high degree of brand loyalty, but some room for experimentation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Attitudes toward brands, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Older, wiser translates to more brand loyalty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Attitudes toward brands, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Household income of $49.9K or less most likely to buy whatever products are most affordable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Attitudes toward brands, by household income, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes toward Sustainable Disposable Baby Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Nearly seven in 10 report buying in bulk if possible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Attitudes toward sustainable disposable baby products, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Higher household income affords some buyers a green stance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Attitudes toward sustainable disposable baby products, by household income, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Diaper Purchasing Habits

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nine in 10 agree that the efficacy of diaper brands varies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Diaper purchasing habits, by gender, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Younger buyers concerned for the environment, use online diaper services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Diaper purchasing habits, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Black, Hispanic respondents most likely to use baby oil, powder
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Usage of disposable baby care products, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Blacks most likely to use a range of brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Brands of disposable baby care products used, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Hispanics report more frequent usage of many baby care products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Frequency of use of disposable baby care products, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Purchases and usage of disposable baby care products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Purchases of disposable baby products, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes toward sustainable disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Attitudes toward sustainable disposable baby products, by age, November-December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Food Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Johnson & Johnson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Kimberly-Clark Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • National Association of Diaper Services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Personal Care Products Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Procter & Gamble Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Real Diaper Industry Association

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Disposable Baby Products - US - March 2012

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