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Domestic Central Heating (Industrial Report) - UK - September 2014

“The domestic central heating sector has received a welcome boost from the comparative success of ECO incentives, while the Green Deal, at least when it was based on loans, was disappointing in its effect on demand. Nonetheless, the requirement on the UK to reduce carbon emissions has determined that the market has not, and will not, be restricted to economic development, but the growth of the UK economy will add a further impetus to demand over the next few years.”
– Terry Leggett, Senior Analyst

This report addresses the following key questions concerning the domestic central heating market:

  • How strongly will the market develop over the next five years?
  • Is that growth sustainable over the entire five years and what will be the market drivers?
  • Which regions hold the best prospects?
  • Which product sectors now hold the best prospects?
  • How have government schemes affected the market?

This report covers the UK market and industry for domestic central heating products and systems comprising boilers, radiators and central heating controls. Please note that due to a reclassification of data by the ONS, repair and maintenance is no longer included in the domestic central heating market.

There are a number of different types of central heating system included in the analysis of this report, and these are defined by the fuel type used:

  • Electric
  • Gas
  • Oil-fired
  • Solid fuel

The vast majority of radiators comprise steel or iron products, but aluminium radiators are also included, though these tend to be more commonly installed in the commercial sector.

The UK domestic central heating market is heavily dependent on replacement sales. However, a number of factors have conspired to change this ratio in the post-banking crisis review period:

Low levels of new house building activity have placed upward pressure on the proportional importance of replacement items. These conditions notably changed in 2013.

Economic difficulties, low levels of house price inflation, increased employment uncertainty and difficulty in gaining finance reduced house moving activity. This has traditionally been a time of major investment in properties, but this has fallen with the lack of house moving activity placing a downward pressure on the ratio. Such market conditions materially changed in 2013.

The economic conditions have been such (employment uncertainty, pay freezes etc) that people have deferred non-essential expenditure. While a boiler and central heating is deemed by many to be an essential feature of a property, restricted expenditure has encouraged repair rather than replacement. This has reduced overall demand, affecting the replacement market without having the same impact on the new construction market.

Some government incentives have encouraged and facilitated the replacement of boilers, creating a further upward pressure on the ratio.

The replacement of a boiler or a complete system tends to be an “as needed” purchase, which can only be delayed at times of austerity. 

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • Figure 1: Development of the UK market for domestic central heating products, 2009-13 actual and 2014-18 forecast
        • Figure 2: Segmentation of the UK market for domestic central heating products, 2013
        • Figure 3: Installed base of central heating boilers, by type of boiler, 1975-2010
        • Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK market for central heating installations by fuel type, 2013
        • Figure 5: Installed base of central heating systems, by type of fuel, 1970-2010
      • Market factors
        • Figure 6: Household central heating penetration, 1970-2010
        • Figure 7: Proportional importance of new installations and replacements for central heating, 2013
        • Figure 8: Forecast development of the UK market for domestic central heating products, by type, 2014-18 forecast
      • Companies
        • Figure 9: Changes in the structure of the central heating radiators and boilers industry, 2009-13
      • What we think
      • Introduction

        • Definitions
          • Methodology
            • Abbreviations
              • Market positioning and issues in the market
                • Market factors
                  • Figure 10: Residential property transactions in the UK, 2009-13
                  • Figure 11: Summary of major energy efficiency programmes since 2000
                • EEC1
                  • EEC2
                    • CERT
                      • Figure 12: Number of installations of main measures in EEC1 and EEC2
                      • Figure 13: Number of installations under CERT 2008-12
                    • Boiler scrappage
                      • Warm Front
                        • Fuel Switching
                            • Figure 14: Fuel switching grants, 2011 and 2012
                          • CESP
                            • Figure 15: Number of measures installed under CESP, 2009-12
                          • Green Deal
                            • Core Offer 1
                              • Core Offer 2
                                • Figure 16: Selected number of measures installed using Green Deal finance up to June 2014
                              • ECO
                                  • Figure 17: Selected number of measures installed using ECO measures up to May 2014
                              • Market Size and Trends

                                • Key analysis
                                • UK Economy

                                  • Overview
                                    • Figure 18: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-14
                                    • Figure 19: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
                                  • Inflation
                                    • Interest rates
                                      • House prices
                                        • Consumer spending
                                          • Manufacturing
                                            • Business investment
                                              • Imports
                                                • Exports
                                                • Market Size

                                                    • Figure 20: The UK domestic central heating market, by number of installations of systems, 2009-13
                                                    • Figure 21: Development of the UK market for domestic central heating products, 2009-13
                                                    • Figure 22: The UK domestic central heating market, by value, 2009-13
                                                • Market Segmentation

                                                      • Figure 23: Segmentation of the UK market for domestic central heating products, 2013
                                                    • Overview
                                                      • Figure 24: Segmentation of the UK domestic central heating market, by type of product, 2009-13
                                                    • Boilers
                                                      • Figure 25: Development of the UK market for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                      • Figure 26: UK installed base of central heating systems, by type of boiler, 1975-2011
                                                    • Radiators
                                                      • Figure 27: The UK central heating radiator market, 2009-13
                                                      • Figure 28: Development of the UK market for domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                      • Figure 29: Segmentation of the UK domestic central heating radiator market, by type, 2013
                                                    • Controls
                                                        • Figure 30: Development of the UK market for domestic central heating controls, 2009-13
                                                        • Figure 31: The UK domestic central heating control market, 2009-13
                                                      • Pumps
                                                        • Figure 32: The UK domestic central heating pumps market, 2009-13
                                                      • Analysis by Fuel Type
                                                          • Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK domestic central heating installations, by type of fuel, 2009-13
                                                          • Figure 34: UK installed base of central heating systems, by type of fuel, 1970-2011
                                                          • Figure 35: Segmentation of the UK installed base of central heating installations by fuel type, 2011
                                                          • Figure 36: UK domestic energy consumption, by fuel type, 1970-2013
                                                          • Figure 37: UK domestic energy consumption, by use, 1970-2012
                                                          • Figure 38: Segmentation of the UK domestic energy consumption, by use, 2012
                                                          • Figure 39: UK domestic expenditure on energy, by fuel type, 1990-2012
                                                          • Figure 40: Segmentation of the UK domestic energy consumption on heating, by fuel, 2012
                                                          • Figure 41: Features of different domestic central heating fuels, by type
                                                      • Market Trends

                                                          • Replacement Systems
                                                            • Installations in Existing Buildings
                                                              • Figure 42: UK market penetration of installed base of central heating systems, 1970-2011
                                                            • New construction installations
                                                              • Mortgages
                                                                • Right to Buy
                                                                  • Private rented homes
                                                                    • Affordable housing
                                                                      • Making better use of existing buildings
                                                                          • Figure 43: Analysis of the composition of the housing construction market in Great Britain, 2009-13
                                                                          • Figure 44: Analysis of private housing construction output in Great Britain, 2009-13
                                                                          • Figure 45: Private new housing starts and completions in England, 2009-13
                                                                          • Figure 46: Analysis of new public housing construction output in Great Britain, 2009-13
                                                                          • Figure 47: Public housing starts and completions in England, 2009-13
                                                                        • Non-domestic use
                                                                          • Seasonality of Sales
                                                                            • Figure 48: UK seasonal sales of central heating, 2009-13
                                                                          • Regional sales
                                                                            • Figure 49: Regional housing repair & maintenance output, 2009-13
                                                                            • Figure 50: Regional private housing construction output, 2009-13
                                                                            • Figure 51: Regional public housing construction output, 2009-13
                                                                          • Distribution/promotion
                                                                              • Figure 52: Distribution of central heating products in the UK, 2013
                                                                          • Supply Sources

                                                                            • Key analysis
                                                                              • Production
                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                  • Figure 53: UK production of domestic central heating boilers & parts and radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                  • Figure 54: Analysis of UK domestic central heating boiler and radiator production and apparent consumption, 2009-13
                                                                                • Boilers & parts
                                                                                  • Figure 55: UK production of domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                  • Figure 56: UK production of parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Analysis of UK production of domestic central heating boilers and parts for boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                • Radiators
                                                                                    • Figure 58: UK production of domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                  • Imports
                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                      • Figure 59: UK imports of domestic central heating boilers, parts for boilers and radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Figure 60: UK imports of central heating products, 2009-13
                                                                                    • Boilers
                                                                                      • Figure 61: UK imports of domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Figure 62: UK Import penetration of domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Figure 63: UK imports of parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Figure 64: UK import penetration of parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                    • Radiators
                                                                                      • Figure 65: UK imports of domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Figure 66: UK import penetration of domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                    • Exports
                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                        • Figure 67: UK Exports of domestic central heating boilers, parts for boilers and radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Figure 68: UK exports of central heating products, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Boilers
                                                                                        • Figure 69: UK exports of domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Figure 70: UK importance of exports to UK production of domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Figure 71: UK exports of parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Figure 72: UK importance of exports to UK production of parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Radiators
                                                                                        • Figure 73: UK exports of domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Figure 74: UK importance of exports to UK production of domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Trade deficit
                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                          • Figure 75: UK trade deficit in domestic central heating boilers, parts for boilers and radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                          • Figure 76: UK trade deficit in central heating products, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Boilers
                                                                                          • Figure 77: UK trade deficit in domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                          • Figure 78: UK trade deficit in parts for domestic central heating boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Radiators
                                                                                          • Figure 79: UK trade deficit in domestic central heating radiators, 2009-13
                                                                                      • Industry Structure

                                                                                        • Key analysis
                                                                                          • Industry development
                                                                                            • Figure 80: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the central heating radiators and boilers industry, 2009-13
                                                                                            • Figure 81: Changes in the structure of the central heating radiators and boilers industry, 2009-13
                                                                                          • Structure by employment
                                                                                            • Figure 82: Analysis of the employment structure of the central heating radiators and boilers industry, 2012-13
                                                                                          • Structure by turnover
                                                                                            • Figure 83: Analysis of the financial structure of the central heating radiators and boilers industry, 2012-13
                                                                                        • Company Profiles

                                                                                          • Ideal Boilers

                                                                                              • Figure 84: Financial analysis of Ideal Boilers, 2009-13
                                                                                          • Stelrad (previously Caradon Stelrad)

                                                                                              • Figure 85: Financial Analysis of Stelrad, 2009-13
                                                                                          • Danfoss Randall

                                                                                              • Figure 86: Financial Analysis of Danfoss Randall, 2008-12
                                                                                          • Vaillant Group UK

                                                                                                • Figure 87: Financial analysis of Vaillant Group UK, 2009-13
                                                                                            • Honeywell Control Systems

                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Financial analysis of Honeywell Control Systems, 2008-12
                                                                                              • Rettig ICC

                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Financial Analysis of Rettig (UK), 2008-12
                                                                                                • Quinn Radiators

                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Financial Analysis of Quinn Radiators, 2008-12
                                                                                                • Bosch Thermotechnology

                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Financial Analysis of Bosch Thermotechnology, 2008-12
                                                                                                • Drayton

                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Financial Analysis of Schneider Electric, 2008-12
                                                                                                • Baxi (BDR Thermea)

                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Analysis of Sales by Country for BDR Thermea, 2013
                                                                                                • Brugman Radiators (Vasco Group)

                                                                                                  • Forecast

                                                                                                    • Key analysis
                                                                                                      • The market
                                                                                                        • Refurbishment activity
                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Forecast repair & maintenance construction output in Great Britain, 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Forecast repair & maintenance construction output in Great Britain, by type, 201418
                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Forecast repair & maintenance construction output in Great Britain, by type, 201418
                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Forecast repair & maintenance output in the public housing sector in Great Britain, 201418
                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Forecast repair & maintenance output in the private housing sector in Great Britain, 201418
                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Private housing construction in Great Britain forecast 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Forecast private housing output in Great Britain, 201418
                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Public housing construction in Great Britain forecast 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Forecast public housing output in Great Britain, 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Forecast domestic central heating market in UK, 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Forecast UK domestic central heating market, 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Forecast segmentation of the UK domestic central heating market, by type of product, 2014-18
                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Forecast domestic central heating market in UK, by type, 2014-18
                                                                                                      • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                          • Trade magazines
                                                                                                            • Trade exhibitions

                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                            Domestic Central Heating (Industrial Report) - UK - September 2014

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