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Domestic Rail Travel - UK - January 2010

This report examines the UK’s rail travel market (excluding commuting), investigating the core market factors, consumer dynamics and targeting opportunities, key strengths and weaknesses, the likely prospects regarding investment, the market’s future, how the recession has impacted, innovations of relevance and exclusive consumer research.

  • The recession has meant an end to year-on-year growth in rail journeys. There will be an estimated 1,215 million in 2009/10, down 59 million from 2008/09.
  • Consumer attitudes toward rail are hardening. Almost 30 million people believe that train tickets in the UK are too expensive – approximately 7 million more than did so in 2007.
  • Only 3.5 million think rail travel represents value for money. Widespread confusion appears to reign over booking and finding best prices – fewer than 12 million believe that booking train tickets is easy enough.
  • Some 3.6 million adults can be categorised as fans of rail travel. However, even here, over half think it’s too expensive.
  • 4.6 million are green-friendly, stating that trains’ environmental friendliness motivates them to use the railways.
  • Overall, more than 9 million adults are generally positive towards rail travel, while over 12 million can be seen as negative.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key issues:
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Local Knowledge
              • Turn here
                • Transumers
                  • A to see to B
                    • Leisure usage
                      • Innovation station
                      • Market in Brief

                        • Journeys held
                          • Government steps in
                            • Investment vs cuts
                              • Value, fares and confusion
                                • Miles, business and going green
                                • Internal Market Environment

                                  • Key points
                                    • Investment rolls on
                                      • Full (high) speed ahead
                                        • Bumper to bumper
                                          • Figure 1: Licensed cars in Great Britain, 1999-2008
                                          • Figure 2: Car ownership, 2005-09
                                          • Figure 3: Retail Prices Index: Transport components, 1998-2008
                                        • Year of the UK holiday
                                          • Figure 4: Domestic holiday volumes and value, 2004-09
                                        • What ATOC wants
                                          • East Coast takeover and nationalisation
                                            • Fare’s fair
                                            • Broader Market Environment

                                              • Key points
                                                • Recession and rail
                                                  • Figure 5: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2004 prices, 2004-14
                                                • Ageing away
                                                  • Figure 6: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2004-14
                                                • ABCDEase of travel
                                                  • Figure 7: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
                                                • Rail-shy and retiring
                                                  • Figure 8: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2004-14
                                                • Inter(net) City
                                                  • Figure 9: British internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by gender, socio-economic group, age, region and working status, 2004-09
                                              • Competitive Context

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Planes, trains and automobiles
                                                    • Figure 10: National Travel Survey 2008: Percentage of all domestic trips, by purpose and mode, 2008
                                                    • Figure 11: National Travel Survey 2008: Percentage of domestic distance travelled, by purpose and mode, 2008
                                                  • Fly UK
                                                    • Figure 12: Long-distance domestic rail vs domestic airline passengers, 2003/04-2008/09
                                                  • Holidaymakers get behind the wheel
                                                    • Figure 13: Domestic holidays, by mode of transport, 2005-09
                                                  • Green edge
                                                    • Figure 14: Percentage of total UK carbon emissions, by mode of passenger transport, 2007
                                                • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                    • Strengths
                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Environmental
                                                            • Stations
                                                              • Track
                                                                • Ticketing
                                                                  • Holidays
                                                                    • Onward travel
                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Journeys decrease as recession impacts
                                                                          • Figure 15: Volume of UK passenger rail journeys, 2004/05-2014/15
                                                                        • Value growth ends
                                                                          • Figure 16: Value of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, 2004/05-2014/15
                                                                          • Figure 17: Estimated value of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, 2004/05-2008/09
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Business and pleasure
                                                                            • Figure 18: Proportion and volume of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, by purpose, 2008/09
                                                                          • Rolling along
                                                                            • Figure 19: Long-distance UK domestic passenger rail journeys, volume, value and average fare, 2004/05-2008/09
                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                          • State of the nation
                                                                            • Figure 20: UK rail operating companies, 2009
                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Figure 21: Individual train operators’ scores – percentage rated satisfactory or good in the National Passenger Survey, 2008 and 2009
                                                                          • Association of Train Operating Companies
                                                                            • Arriva Trains Wales
                                                                                • Figure 22: Arriva Trains Wales, financials, 2007 and 2008
                                                                              • CrossCountry
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Arriva Plc UK trains, financials (includes CrossCountry and Arriva Trains Wales), 2007 and 2008
                                                                                • East Coast
                                                                                    • Figure 24: National Express UK trains, financials (includes East Coast, C2C and East Anglia), 2007 and 2008
                                                                                  • East Midlands Trains
                                                                                      • Figure 25: East Midlands trains, financials, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                    • First Great Western
                                                                                        • Figure 26: First Great Western, financials, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                      • First ScotRail (ScotRail)
                                                                                          • Figure 27: First ScotRail, financials, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                        • Northern Rail
                                                                                            • Figure 28: Northern Rail, financials, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                          • Southern Rail
                                                                                            • Virgin Trains
                                                                                                • Figure 29: Virgin Rail Group Limited, financials, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                            • Brand Elements

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                  • Brand qualities of domestic rail brands
                                                                                                    • Virgin both best and worst
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Personalities of various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                    • Experience of domestic rail brands
                                                                                                      • Biggest networks most used
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Consumer usage of various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                      • Brand consideration for domestic rail brands
                                                                                                        • Virgin most considered
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Consideration of various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                        • Brand satisfaction for domestic rail brands
                                                                                                          • Virgin offers most positive experience
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Satisfaction with various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                          • Brand commitment to domestic rail brands
                                                                                                            • ScotRail serves local needs
                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Commitment to various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                            • Brand intentions for domestic rail brands
                                                                                                              • Loyalty low, but Virgin still most popular
                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Future usage intentions for various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                              • Brand recommendation for domestic rail brands
                                                                                                                • National Express gone, but one of the best
                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Recommendation of various domestic rail brands, December 2009
                                                                                                                • First Great Western
                                                                                                                  • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Attitudes towards the First Great Western brand, December 2009
                                                                                                                  • Southern
                                                                                                                    • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Attitudes towards the Southern brand, December 2009
                                                                                                                    • Arriva Trains Wales
                                                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Attitudes towards the Arriva Trains Wales brand, December 2009
                                                                                                                      • ScotRail
                                                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Attitudes towards the ScotRail brand, December 2009
                                                                                                                        • Virgin Trains
                                                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Attitudes towards the Virgin Trains brand, December 2009
                                                                                                                        • Who Travels by Rail?

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Rail travel in the past 12 months, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                          • Age of the train rolls on
                                                                                                                            • Train for all
                                                                                                                              • Business and short breaks boost ABs
                                                                                                                              • Rail Travel Habits

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Rail travel habits, November 2009
                                                                                                                                • Station still standard
                                                                                                                                  • Online and advance on track
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Rail travel habits, by most popular rail travel in the past 12 months, November 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Food, drink and first class
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Rail travel habits, by rail travel in the past 12 months, November 2009
                                                                                                                                  • What People Think of Rail Travel

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Attitudes towards rail travel, November 2009
                                                                                                                                    • ‘Expensive’ expansion
                                                                                                                                      • ‘Fairness’ and booking
                                                                                                                                        • Planes, trains, cars and the environment
                                                                                                                                          • Experience means expense – but better impression
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Attitudes towards rail travel, by rail travel in the past 12 months, November 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Target groups
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                            • Fans
                                                                                                                                              • Users
                                                                                                                                                • Turned-off by Ticket Buying
                                                                                                                                                  • Anti-train
                                                                                                                                                    • Off The Rails
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Rail travel in the past 12 months, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Overseas travel modes comparison – visits abroad, by UK residents (all types including holidays, business and VFR travel), 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Overseas travel modes comparison – visits to the UK, by overseas residents (all types including holidays, business and VFR travel), 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Volume of visits abroad by UK residents via tunnel crossing, by purpose of visit, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Volume of visits to the UK by overseas residents via tunnel crossing, by purpose of visit, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Who Travels by Rail

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Most popular rail travel in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Next most popular rail travel in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Rail Travel Habits

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Rail travel habits, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – What People Think of Rail Travel

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Attitudes towards rail travel, by most popular types of rail travel in the past 12 months, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Attitudes towards rail travel, by rail travel habits, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards rail travel, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards rail travel, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Other attitudes towards rail travel, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Target groups, by demographics, November 2009

                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                    • Arriva Plc
                                                                                                                                                    • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC)
                                                                                                                                                    • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                    • Chiltern Railways
                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                    • Department for Transport
                                                                                                                                                    • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • First Capital Connect Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • First Great Western
                                                                                                                                                    • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                    • Great North Eastern Railway [GNER]
                                                                                                                                                    • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                    • Market & Opinion Research International (MORI)
                                                                                                                                                    • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                    • National Audit Office
                                                                                                                                                    • National Express Limited
                                                                                                                                                    • Research in Motion Uk Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                    • Rugby Football League
                                                                                                                                                    • ScotRail Railways Limited
                                                                                                                                                    • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Group Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Trains
                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                    Domestic Rail Travel - UK - January 2010

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