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Eating Out Review - UK - June 2013

“A renewed focus on the basic principle of emphasising the ‘experience’ of eating out should help operators reclaim market share, particularly in sectors such as pizza/pasta restaurants where brand loyalty is low due to an extended period of heavy discounting.”

– Helena Spicer, Senior Foodservice Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can foodservice operators gain a greater share of the leisure pound?
  • What initiatives can help foodservice operators better compete with retail NPD?
  • How can variety and theatre of serve improve the perception of added value?
  • How can operators counteract consumer cutbacks?

With consumers continuing to rein in spending, operators are under pressure to address various issues in the Eating Out market. For example, the extended period of heavy discounting has led not only to diners becoming more promiscuous but to the experience being seen as more commoditised by consumers.

Furthermore, although restaurants, as experience providers, should naturally benefit from any further lift in confidence levels going forward, they also have to be more proactive in order to ensure their share of the leisure pound. For example, operators are increasingly investing in new concepts and partnerships to target areas of guaranteed high footfall such as motorway service areas, shopping centres and travel hubs.

The scope of this report is the eating out market within the UK (excluding commercial catering, eg canteens, contract catering). This consists of various market segments, which are defined as:

Fast food – this essentially refers to outlets that serve food prepared and served quickly to order with a limited menu. Service style is largely on a counter collection basis and the main fast food outlets include: burger bars, eg McDonald’s and Burger King, pizza restaurants, takeaway and home delivery outlets, eg Pizza Hut, PizzaExpress and Domino’s Pizza, pasta chains, eg Bella Italia, chicken chains, eg KFC, fish and chip shops, other types of fast food such as jacket potatoes, kebabs, vegetarian specialities, filled croissants.

Pub catering – typically includes food served in pubs and in pub restaurant chains such as Brewers Fayre and Harvester.
Independent and chain restaurants – such as T.G.I. Friday’s and Frankie & Benny’s.

In-store restaurants – these outlets comprise a wide range of foodservice venues located within retail outlets including supermarkets and department stores.

Roadside catering – these outlets operate at MSAs and on major roads, with the leading operators being the Compass Moto brand and Little Chef.

Hotel catering – comprising hotel restaurants, bars and room service.

Other – other formats included within the scope of this report are cafés, coffee shops and other retail outlets serving food.

Specialist sandwich outlets have been excluded from this report. Also, some sectors such as roadside and in-store catering have been identified separately but often include elements of overlap with other sectors such as fast food and chain restaurants. However, please note that the market sizes shown exclude overlapping outlets. For instance, burger bars found in motorway service areas have been excluded from the total roadside market figures and have been included in the burger bar segment instead.

Hotel catering includes sales of beverages. As far as possible, sales of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages have been excluded from all other sectors and sub-sectors, apart from coffee shops.

Takeaway foodservice outlets are included as part of the market, but sales of food through retail outlets such as supermarkets are excluded (apart from in-store catering venues).

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2008-18
            • Market drivers
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Companies and products
                  • Who’s innovating?
                    • The consumer
                      • Fast food venues visited
                        • Figure 2: Fast food restaurants visited in the last three months, April 2013
                      • Restaurants visited
                        • Figure 3: Restaurants visited in the past three months, April 2013
                      • Frequency of visiting restaurants
                        • Figure 4: Frequency of eating out, April 2013
                      • Consumer perception of restaurant categories
                        • Figure 5: Correspondence analysis showing the attributes associated with selected restaurant categories, April 2013
                      • How have eating out habits changed?
                        • Figure 6: Eating out behaviour, April 2013
                      • Attitudes towards eating out
                        • Figure 7: Attitudes towards eating out, April 2013
                      • What we think
                      • Issues in the Market

                          • How can foodservice operators gain a greater share of the leisure pound?
                            • What initiatives can help foodservice operators better compete with retail NPD?
                              • How can variety and theatre of serve improve the perception of added value?
                                • How can operators counteract consumer cutbacks?
                                • Trend Application

                                    • Size variants and sharing options add flexibility to the menu
                                      • Highlighting affordable ways to indulge
                                        • Using lifestyle branding to appeal to the youth market
                                        • Market Drivers

                                          • Key points
                                            • Lingering fears over job security may mute consumer spending
                                              • Figure 8: Employment and unemployment, by gender, 2007-17
                                            • Signs that consumer confidence is improving
                                              • Figure 9: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007 – May 2013
                                            • Wet weather and snow has compounded problems for restaurants
                                                • Figure 10: Monthly sales growth against same month previous year (%) across leading restaurant and pub groups, April 2009 to April 2013
                                              • Restaurants should empower not patronise older diners
                                                • Figure 11: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
                                                • Figure 12: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
                                            • Competitive Context

                                              • Key points
                                                • Consumer spending priorities
                                                  • Figure 13: Dining out as a consumer spending priority (after bills), November 2009 – April 2013
                                                  • Figure 14: Selected consumer spending priorities (after bills), April 2010 – April 2013
                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Gourmet fried chicken specialists
                                                    • Seafood trends
                                                      • Upmarket chip shops
                                                        • The growth of the niche artisan pizza segment
                                                          • Pop-ups: embracing the transience of food fads
                                                            • When is a pop-up no longer a pop up?
                                                              • Embracing the transience of change
                                                                • Experiential dining: upping the ante
                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Eating out market size and forecast
                                                                      • Figure 15: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2008-18
                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                      • Figure 16: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2008-18
                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                    • Market Segmentation

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Market segmentation – overview
                                                                          • Figure 17: Eating out market*, by sector, 2008-12
                                                                        • Strong performers
                                                                          • Coffee shops
                                                                            • Weak performers
                                                                              • Hotel catering
                                                                                • Roadside catering
                                                                                  • Sandwich market
                                                                                    • Figure 18: Agreement with the statement ‘I find I am eating more homemade sandwiches than I did a year ago’, March 2012 – May 2013
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Market share
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Selected restaurant chains/operators by outlet numbers, 2011-13
                                                                                    • Gondola Holdings
                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                        • Figure 20: Gondola restaurants, brand growth, 2010-12
                                                                                      • Financial results
                                                                                        • Figure 21: Gondola Holdings financial results, 2008-12
                                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                                        • Tragus Group
                                                                                          • Background
                                                                                            • Financial results
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Tragus Group financial results, 2008-12
                                                                                            • Recent developments/future plans
                                                                                              • Recent developments – Bella Italia
                                                                                                • The Restaurant Group
                                                                                                  • Background
                                                                                                    • Figure 23: The Restaurant Group brands, outlet growth, 2009-12
                                                                                                  • Financial results
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: The Restaurant Group financial results, 2008-12
                                                                                                  • Recent developments/future plans
                                                                                                    • Other
                                                                                                      • Brasserie Blanc
                                                                                                        • Other – Lifecycle of a brand comes to an end?
                                                                                                          • Little Chef
                                                                                                            • Other – The come-back kids?
                                                                                                              • T.G.I Friday’s
                                                                                                                • La Tasca
                                                                                                                • Fast Food Restaurants Visited

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Only 14% say they haven’t visited a fast food restaurant, café or coffee shop in the last months
                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Fast food restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                    • Fast food just got faster
                                                                                                                    • Restaurants Visited

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Discounting can drive footfall but may damage margins unnecessarily
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                        • Promoting young consumers as ‘stakeholders’ in casual dining brands
                                                                                                                          • Eat in versus takeaway
                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Restaurants visited, by eat in and takeaway/home delivery, April 2013
                                                                                                                        • Frequency of Eating Out

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Restaurants still reliant on discounting to drive footfall
                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Frequency of eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                            • New concepts aim to help chains to more proactively chase footfall
                                                                                                                              • Multifaceted venues: additional revenue streams & increasing relevancy
                                                                                                                              • Consumer Perceptions of Eating Out Categories

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Methodology
                                                                                                                                    • Fast food is seen a family-friendly but boring and tired
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Correspondence analysis showing the attributes associated with selected restaurant categories, April 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Opportunities for ethnic restaurants to better appeal to the ‘regular treat’ dining occasion
                                                                                                                                        • Pubs are seen as good VFM but need to ensure they are achieving brand differentiation too
                                                                                                                                          • American-style restaurants are seen as overpriced
                                                                                                                                            • Pizza/pasta restaurants have a weak image
                                                                                                                                            • How Have Eating Out Habits Changed?

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Restaurants need to reinvigorate consumers’ willingness to spend on eating out
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Eating out behaviour, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Demographic differences
                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes Towards Eating Out

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Waning enthusiasm for ‘splashing out’ on eating out
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Attitudes towards eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Drinks VFM perceptions
                                                                                                                                                      • Nibbles and sharing plates
                                                                                                                                                        • Flexible menu trends: Mini desserts
                                                                                                                                                          • Creating more standout desserts to spark interest
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Fast Food Restaurants Visited

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Fast food restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Any fast food restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Eat in restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Takeaway/home delivery restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Restaurants Visited

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Most popular restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Next most popular restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Most popular eat in restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Next most popular eat in restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Takeaway/home delivery restaurants visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Attitudes towards eating out, by most popular any restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Attitudes towards eating out, by next most popular any restaurants visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer Perceptions of Eating Out Categories

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Attributes associated with selected eating out categories, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Tired attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Boring attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Exciting attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Special attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Good value for money attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Overpriced attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Family friendly attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Indulgent attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Welcoming attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Tacky attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Outdated attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: None of these attributes associated with selected eating out categories, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Frequency of Eating Out

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Frequency of eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Frequency of eating in a restaurant, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Frequency of ordering a takeaway/home delivery, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – How Have Eating Out Habits Changed?

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Eating out behaviour, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Eating out behaviour, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Eating Out

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Attitudes towards eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Most popular attitudes towards eating out, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Next most popular attitudes towards eating out, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Other attitudes towards eating out, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Attitudes towards eating out, by most popular attitudes towards eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Attitudes towards eating out, by next most popular attitudes towards eating out, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Attitudes towards eating out, by other attitudes towards eating out, April 2013

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          • ABN AMRO Capital
                                                                                                                                                          • Beefeater
                                                                                                                                                          • Brasserie Blanc
                                                                                                                                                          • Brewers Fayre
                                                                                                                                                          • Brunning & Price
                                                                                                                                                          • Carluccio's
                                                                                                                                                          • Chiquito
                                                                                                                                                          • Costa
                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Frankie & Benny's
                                                                                                                                                          • Garfunkel's
                                                                                                                                                          • Gondola Holdings PLC
                                                                                                                                                          • Greene King Brewing and Retailing Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Heston Blumenthal
                                                                                                                                                          • Hungry Horse
                                                                                                                                                          • JD Wetherspoon
                                                                                                                                                          • La Tasca Restaurants Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Little Chef
                                                                                                                                                          • McDonald's Corporation
                                                                                                                                                          • Mitchells & Butlers Plc
                                                                                                                                                          • Paramount Restaurants
                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza Hut
                                                                                                                                                          • PizzaExpress Limited
                                                                                                                                                          • Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Strada
                                                                                                                                                          • Taco Bell Corp.
                                                                                                                                                          • The Restaurant Group plc
                                                                                                                                                          • Tragus Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Wagamama Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Zizzi

                                                                                                                                                          Eating Out Review - UK - June 2013

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