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European Retail Forecasts - December 2012

European Retail Briefing is a monthly briefing providing news and analysis that includes company results, store openings, cross-border moves, M & A activities, executive changes and property developments. Additionally each month, European Retail Briefing focuses on a key issue or specific European retail sector. The month's retail news is then analysed sector by sector, making this an invaluable resource for all with an interest in the European retail industry.

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Table of contents

  1. Technical Notes

    • Report scope
      • Methodology
        • Retail sales
          • 2012 data
            • Retailer classifications
              • Accuracy and veracity in retail sales data
                • Other technical matters
                  • Figure 1: Europe: Internet codes
                  • Figure 2: Average annual exchange rates for non-Euro currencies, 2007-12
                • Financial definitions
                  • Rounding errors
                    • VAT
                      • Figure 3: Europe standard VAT rates, 2010-12
                    • Other abbreviations
                    • European Forecast Summary and Outlook

                        • Figure 4: GDP forecast growth in real terms, 2012 and 2013
                      • Consumer confidence
                          • Figure 5: EU countries: Change in consumer confidence, November 2011-October 2012
                          • Figure 6: Consumer confidence, Oct 2012 and retail sales growth, July-Oct 2012
                        • Retail sales forecasts
                          • The numbers
                            • Figure 7: Europe: Retail sales (incl vat) by country, 2011-17
                            • Figure 8: Europe: Forecast growth rates (in € at current prices), 2012-17
                          • Growth by sector
                              • Figure 9: Europe: Forecast sector growth rates (in € at current prices), 2012-17
                          • Austria

                            • Introduction
                              • Economic outlook and forecast
                                • The retail market
                                  • Forecasts
                                    • Figure 10: Austria: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                    • Figure 11: Austria retail sales including VAT forecast by major sector (inc vat), 2011-17
                                    • Figure 12: Austria retail sales (excl VAT) forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                    • Figure 13: Austria: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                • Belgium

                                  • Introduction
                                    • Economic outlook
                                      • The retail market
                                        • Forecast
                                          • Figure 14: Belgium: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                          • Figure 15: Belgium retail sales including VAT forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                          • Figure 16: Belgium retail sales excluding VAT forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                          • Figure 17: Belgium: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                      • Bulgaria

                                        • Introduction
                                          • Economic outlook and forecast
                                            • The retail market
                                              • Forecasts
                                                • Figure 18: Bulgaria: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                • Figure 19: Bulgaria retail sales including VAT in local currency, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                • Figure 20: Bulgaria retail sales excluding VAT in local currency, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                • Figure 21: Bulgaria retail sales including VAT in Euros, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                • Figure 22: Bulgaria: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                            • Croatia

                                              • Introduction
                                                • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                  • The retail market
                                                    • Forecasts
                                                      • Figure 23: Croatia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                      • Figure 24: Croatia retail sales excluding VAT in Kuna, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                      • Figure 25: Croatia retail sales excluding VAT in Kuna, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                      • Figure 26: Croatia retail sales including VAT in Euros, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                      • Figure 27: Croatia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                  • Czech Republic

                                                    • Introduction
                                                      • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                        • The retail market
                                                          • Forecast
                                                            • Figure 28: Czech Republic: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                            • Figure 29: Czech Republic retail sales including VAT in Koruna, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                            • Figure 30: Czech Republic retail sales excluding VAT in Koruna, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                            • Figure 31: Czech Republic retail sales including VAT in Euros, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                            • Figure 32: Czech Republic: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                        • Denmark

                                                          • Introduction
                                                            • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                              • The retail market
                                                                • Forecast
                                                                  • Figure 33: Denmark: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                  • Figure 34: Denmark retail sales including VAT in Krone, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                  • Figure 35: Denmark retail sales excluding VAT in Krone, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                  • Figure 36: Denmark retail sales including VAT in Euro, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                  • Figure 37: Denmark: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                              • Estonia

                                                                • Introduction
                                                                  • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                    • The retail market
                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                        • Figure 38: Estonia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                        • Figure 39: Estonia retail sales including VAT in Euros, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                        • Figure 40: Estonia retail sales excluding VAT in Euros, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                        • Figure 41: Estonia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                    • Finland

                                                                      • Introduction
                                                                        • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                          • The retail market
                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                              • Figure 42: Finland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                              • Figure 43: Finland retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                              • Figure 44: Finland retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                              • Figure 45: Finland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                          • France

                                                                            • Introduction
                                                                              • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                • The retail market
                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                    • Figure 46: France: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                    • Figure 47: France retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                    • Figure 48: France retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                    • Figure 49: France: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                • Germany

                                                                                  • Introduction
                                                                                    • Economy and forecasts
                                                                                      • The retail market
                                                                                        • Forecasts
                                                                                          • Figure 50: Germany: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                          • Figure 51: Germany retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                          • Figure 52: Germany retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                          • Figure 53: Germany: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                      • Greece

                                                                                        • Introduction
                                                                                          • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                            • The retail market
                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                • Figure 54: Greece: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Figure 55: Greece retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                • Figure 56: Greece retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                • Figure 57: Greece: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                            • Hungary

                                                                                              • Introduction
                                                                                                • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                  • The retail market
                                                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Hungary: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Hungary retail sales in Forints including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Hungary retail sales in Forints excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Hungary retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Hungary: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                  • Ireland

                                                                                                    • Introduction
                                                                                                      • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                        • The retail market
                                                                                                          • Forecast
                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Ireland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Ireland retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Ireland retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Ireland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                        • Italy

                                                                                                          • Introduction
                                                                                                            • Economy and forecast
                                                                                                              • The retail market
                                                                                                                • Forecasts
                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Italy: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Italy retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Italy retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Italy: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                              • Latvia

                                                                                                                • Introduction
                                                                                                                  • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                    • The retail market
                                                                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Latvia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Latvia retail sales in Lats including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Latvia retail sales in Lats excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Latvia retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Latvia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                    • Lithuania

                                                                                                                      • Introduction
                                                                                                                        • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                          • The retail market
                                                                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Lithuania: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Lithuania retail sales in Litas including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Lithuania retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Lithuania retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Lithuania: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                          • Netherlands

                                                                                                                            • Introduction
                                                                                                                              • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                • The retail market
                                                                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: The Netherlands: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: The Netherlands retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: The Netherlands retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: The Netherlands: Historical and Forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                • Norway

                                                                                                                                  • Introduction
                                                                                                                                    • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                      • The retail market
                                                                                                                                        • Forecast
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Norway: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Norway retail sales in Krone including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Norway retail sales in Krone excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Norway retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Norway: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                      • Poland

                                                                                                                                        • Introduction
                                                                                                                                          • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                            • The retail market
                                                                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: Poland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 91: Poland retail sales in Zlotys including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 92: Poland retail sales in Zlotys excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 93: Poland retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 94: Poland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                            • Portugal

                                                                                                                                              • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                  • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Portugal: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Portugal retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 97: Portugal retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 98: Portugal: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                  • Romania

                                                                                                                                                    • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                      • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                        • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                          • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: Romania: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 100: Romania retail sales in Lei including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 101: Romania retail sales in Lei excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 102: Romania retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 103: Romania: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                        • Russia

                                                                                                                                                          • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                            • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                              • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 104: Russia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 105: Russia retail sales in Roubles including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 106: Russia retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 107: Russia retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 108: Russia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Slovakia

                                                                                                                                                                • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                  • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                    • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Slovakia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Slovakia retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Slovakia retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Slovakia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                    • Slovenia

                                                                                                                                                                      • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                        • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                          • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Slovenia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 114: Slovenia retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 115: Slovenia retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 116: Slovenia: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                          • Spain

                                                                                                                                                                            • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forecasts
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 117: Spain: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 118: Spain retail sales including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 119: Spain retail sales excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 120: Spain: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                • Sweden

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                      • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 121: Sweden: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Sweden retail sales n Krone including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Sweden retail sales in Krone excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Sweden retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Sweden: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Switzerland

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                            • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 126: Switzerland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 127: Switzerland retail sales in Swiss Francs including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 128: Switzerland retail sales in Swiss Francs excluding VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 129: Switzerland retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 130: Switzerland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Economic outlook and forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The retail market
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 131: UK: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 132: UK retail sales in £ including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 133: UK retail sales excluding in £ VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 134: UK retail sales in Euros including VAT, forecast by major sector, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 135: UK: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Clothing

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecasts
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 136: Clothing and footwear retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 137: European clothing and footwear retailers sales (incl vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 138: European clothing retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Department Stores

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Forecasts
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 139: Mixed goods retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 140: European mixed goods retailers sales (incl vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 141: European Mixed goods retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • DIY

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 142: DIY retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 143: European DIY retailers sales (incl VAT), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 144: European DIY retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Electricals

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 145: Electricals retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 146: European electricals retailers sales, 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 147: European Electricals retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 148: Food retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 149: European Food retailers sales (incl vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 150: European Food retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Health and Beauty

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 151: Health and beauty retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 152: European health and beauty retailers sales (inc vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 153: European health and beauty retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Furniture

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 154: Furniture retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 155: European Furniture retailers sales (incl vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 156: European furniture retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Non-store Retailers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecasts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 157: Non-store retailers as % all European retail sales, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 158: European non-store retailers sales (incl vat), 2011-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 159: European non-store retailers forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2012-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    European Retail Forecasts - December 2012

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