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- European Retail Forecasts to 2014 - June 2009
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Towards the end of 2008, the economic situation in Europe worsened considerably as a result of the global financial crisis. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008, governments across Europe intervened to prevent the financial services sector from undergoing a complete meltdown. However, the crisis has now spread to the real economy and countries across Europe are having to deal with housing market corrections, a sharp fall in global demand and rising unemployment.
Although interest rates were slashed dramatically across Europe following the financial crisis, this was not sufficient to prevent the European economy from entering its worst recession in the post-war era. Export driven economies, such as Germany and Italy, have suffered due to falling global demand. Other countries, such as Spain and Ireland, had already been in trouble due to a property market correction and are now having to deal with a dramatic drop in consumer spending.
This report includes Mintel’s forecasts for the 29 leading economies in Europe.
Summary and Outlook
GDP contraction and slow recovery
Consumers cut back on spending
Unemployment to rise steadily
Consumers more selective, retailers more audacious
What lies ahead?
Retail sales forecasts
Figure 1: Europe: Retail sales forecasts, by country, 2008-14
Figure 2: Europe: Forecast growth rates (in € at current prices), by country, 2009-14
2009 – glad to see the back of it
Figure 3: Europe: Forecast growth rates (in local currency at current prices), by country, 2008-09
Staggered recovery
Figure 4: Europe: Forecast retail sales recovery to 2008 levels (in local currency), by country
Non-store – the star performer
Figure 5: Europe: Forecast growth rates, by sector (in € at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Figure 6: Europe: Year-on-year forecast growth rates. by sector (in € at current prices), 2009-14
Technical Notes
Report scope
Methodology
Retail sales
2008 data
NACE classifications
Food retailers
Mixed goods retailers
Clothing retailers
Household goods retailers
Miscellaneous specialists
Accuracy and veracity in retail sales data
Other technical matters
Figure 7: European internet suffixes
Figure 8: Average annual exchange rates for non-euro currencies, 2003-08
Financial definitions
Rounding errors
VAT
Figure 9: Europe: Standard VAT rates, 2009
Other abbreviations
Austria
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 10: Austria: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 11: Austria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 12: Austria: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Belgium
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 13: Belgium: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 14: Belgium: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 15: Belgium: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Bulgaria
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 16: Bulgaria: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 17: Bulgaria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 18: Bulgaria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 19: Bulgaria: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
Croatia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 20: Croatia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 21: Croatia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 22: Croatia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 23: Croatia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
Czech Republic
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 24: Czech Republic: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 25: Czech Republic: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 26: Czech Republic: Retail sales forecast by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 27: Czech Republic: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
Denmark
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 28: Denmark: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 29: Denmark: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 30: Denmark: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 31: Denmark: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
Estonia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 32: Estonia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 33: Estonia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 34: Estonia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 35: Estonia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Finland
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 36: Finland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 37: Finland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 38: Finland: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
France
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 39: France: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 40: France: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 41: France: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Germany
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 42: Germany: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 43: Germany: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 44: Germany: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Greece
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 45: Greece: Sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 46: Greece: Retail sales forecasts, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 47: Greece: Historical and forecast retail sales growth (€), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Hungary
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 48: Hungary: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 49: Hungary: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 50: Hungary: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 51: Hungary: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Ireland
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 52: Ireland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 53: Ireland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 54: Ireland: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Italy
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 55: Italy: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 56: Italy: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 57: Italy: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Latvia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 58: Latvia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 59: Latvia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 60: Latvia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 61: Latvia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Lithuania
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 62: Lithuania: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 63: Lithuania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 64: Lithuania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 65: Lithuania: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Luxembourg
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 66: Luxembourg: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 67: Luxembourg: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 68: Luxembourg: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Netherlands
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 69: Netherlands: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 70: Netherlands: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 71: Netherlands: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Norway
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 72: Norway: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 73: Norway: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 74: Norway: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 75: Norway: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Poland
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 76: Poland: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 77: Poland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 78: Poland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 79: Poland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, 2003-08 and 2009-14
Portugal
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 80: Portugal: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 81: Portugal: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 82: Portugal: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Romania
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 83: Romania: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 84: Romania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 85: Romania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 86: Romania: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Russia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 87: Russia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 88: Russia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 89: Russia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 90: Russia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Slovakia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 91: Slovakia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 92: Slovakia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 93: Slovakia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 94: Slovakia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
Slovenia
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 95: Slovenia: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 96: Slovenia: Retail sales forecast (€), 2008-14
Figure 97: Slovenia: Historical and forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
Spain
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 98: Spain: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 99: Spain: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 100: Spain: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Sweden
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 101: Sweden: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 102: Sweden: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 103: Sweden: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 104: Sweden: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
Switzerland
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 105: Switzerland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 106: Switzerland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 107: Switzerland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 108: Switzerland: Historic and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
UK
Introduction
Economic outlook
The retail market
Retail sales forecast
Figure 109: UK: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 110: UK: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
Figure 111: UK: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
Figure 112: UK: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
Clothing and Footwear Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 113: European clothing retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 114: European clothing retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 115: European clothing retailers: Forecast growth rates (in Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Department and Variety Stores
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 116: European department and variety stores: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 117: European department and variety stores: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 118: European department and variety stores: Forecast growth rates (in Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
DIY Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 119: European DIY retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 120: European DIY retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 121: European DIY retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Electricals Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 122: European electricals retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 123: European electricals retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 124: European electricals retailers: Forecast growth rates (Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Food Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 125: European food retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 126: European food retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 127: European food retailers: Forecast growth rates (in euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Furniture Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 128: European furniture retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 129: European furniture retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 130: European furniture retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Health and Beauty Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 131: European health and beauty retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 132: European health and beauty retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 133: European health and beauty retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Miscellaneous Specialist Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 134: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 135: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 136: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-2014(f)
Non-Store Retailers
Introduction
Sector performance and trends
Forecast
Figure 137: European non-store retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
Figure 138: European non-store retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
Figure 139: European non-store retailers: Forecast growth rates (in euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
Appendix
Europe – Background data
Overview
The big five economies
Wealthiest and poorest markets
Figure 140: Europe: GDP, consumer spending and retail sales per capita, by country, 2008
Fastest growing markets
Figure 141: Europe: Fastest growing economies, GDP (current prices) growth, 2004-08
Figure 142: Europe: Fastest growing retail markets, 2004-08
Summary tables
Population
Figure 143: Europe: Population, by country, 2004-08
GDP
Figure 144: Europe: GDP, by country, 2004-08
Consumer expenditure
Figure 145: Europe: Total consumer expenditure (current prices), 2004-08
Inflation
Figure 146: Europe: Consumer price index, by country, 2004-08
All retail sales
Figure 147: Europe: Retail sales, by country, 2004-08
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