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Fish and Shellfish - UK - December 2015

“That fish is rarely seen as versatile is holding the market back from capitalising fully on the scratch cooking trend. Encouraging, however, is consumers’ interest in more recipe suggestions for oily fish and for using fish in ethnic-style dishes, highlighting recipe inspiration as a route to driving more experimentation in cooking with fish.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Providing more recipe ideas can help to build perceptions of fish/shellfish being versatile
  • NPD can meet the strong demand for healthier coated fish options
  • British coastal origin could provide important standout as sustainability has lost its power as a differentiator

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

      • Covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
          • Chilled
            • Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
          • Frozen
            • Figure 3: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
          • Ambient
            • Figure 4: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
          • Market factors
            • Fish consumption is below the recommended level
              • Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
                • Growing confidence in scratch cooking bodes well for fish
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • John West is one of the few major branded players to perform well
                      • Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
                        • Adspend falls from 2013 high
                          • The consumer
                            • Similar levels of usage across different formats
                              • Figure 5: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015
                            • Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
                              • Figure 6: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015
                            • Confidence in cooking and speed is key
                              • Figure 7: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015
                            • People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
                              • Figure 8: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015
                            • Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions
                              • Figure 9: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
                              • Figure 10: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                              • Providing more recipe ideas can help to build perceptions of fish/shellfish being versatile
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • NPD can meet the strong demand for healthier coated fish options
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • British coastal origin could provide important standout as sustainability has lost its power as a differentiator
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                • Fish consumption is below the recommended level
                                                  • Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
                                                    • Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share
                                                      • Deflation in fresh fish has not eroded value growth
                                                        • Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses
                                                          • Falling prices buoy sales in ambient
                                                          • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                            • Overall sales are broadly stagnate in 2015
                                                              • Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2010-20
                                                            • Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share
                                                              • Figure 12: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 13: UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20
                                                            • Chilled expected to continue to grow ahead of the market
                                                              • Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
                                                            • Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses
                                                                • Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
                                                                • Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
                                                              • Falling prices buoy sales in ambient
                                                                  • Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
                                                                  • Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Growing confidence with scratch cooking bodes well for fish
                                                                  • However, convenience still appeals
                                                                    • Deflation has impacted the fish market
                                                                      • Figure 20: RPI – Total food, fresh fish, fish and poultry, January 2009-October 2015
                                                                    • Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
                                                                      • Fish consumption is below the recommended level
                                                                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
                                                                          • A surge in frozen launches in 2015
                                                                            • The competition heats up in oily fish
                                                                              • Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood
                                                                                • John West extends its lead in ambient
                                                                                  • Princes is hit by Tesco delisting
                                                                                    • Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value
                                                                                      • Adspend falls from 2013 high
                                                                                      • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                        • Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
                                                                                          • A surge in frozen launches in 2015
                                                                                            • Figure 21: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by storage type, 2011-15
                                                                                          • Supermarkets lead innovation
                                                                                            • Figure 22: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by company, 2011-15
                                                                                          • Young’s maintains its position as the most active brand in terms of NPD
                                                                                            • Birds Eye is close behind
                                                                                              • The coating of fish is pushed into the limelight in 2015
                                                                                                • High level of launch activity from John West in 2015
                                                                                                  • The competition heats up in oily fish
                                                                                                    • Ethical claims rise
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by claim, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood
                                                                                                      • Saucy Fish Co goes online
                                                                                                        • Young’s expands Funky Fish Kitchen
                                                                                                          • John West extends its lead in ambient
                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                          • Princes is hit by Tesco delisting
                                                                                                            • Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value
                                                                                                              • Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                            • Price rises take their toll on Youngs’ volume sales
                                                                                                            • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                              • Adspend falls from 2013 high
                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2011-15
                                                                                                              • Birds Eye extends its lead in adpend in 2014
                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by top 15 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2011-15*
                                                                                                              • Iceland becomes the top spender in 2015
                                                                                                                • Lidl invests heavily in advertising in 2015
                                                                                                                  • Aldi pits its fish fingers against leading brand in 2014
                                                                                                                    • Young’s unveils new TV ads for Gastro range in 2015
                                                                                                                      • NMR Methodology
                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                        • Similar levels of usage across different formats
                                                                                                                          • Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
                                                                                                                            • Confidence in cooking and speed is key
                                                                                                                              • Oily fish have the edge over white fish
                                                                                                                                • A minority look for indications of sustainability
                                                                                                                                  • People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
                                                                                                                                    • Demand for healthier coated fish options
                                                                                                                                      • Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions
                                                                                                                                        • Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious
                                                                                                                                        • Usage of Fish and Shellfish

                                                                                                                                          • Similar levels of usage across different formats…
                                                                                                                                            • …but frozen has the edge
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015
                                                                                                                                            • Socio-economic factors influence choice of format
                                                                                                                                              • Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015
                                                                                                                                              • Only tinned is driven by lunchtime usage
                                                                                                                                              • Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                • Confidence in cooking is key
                                                                                                                                                  • Speed is also of the essence
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Oily fish have the edge over white fish
                                                                                                                                                    • A minority look for marks of sustainability
                                                                                                                                                      • Scope to push British fish
                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish

                                                                                                                                                        • People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Demand for healthier coated fish options
                                                                                                                                                          • Resealable packaging can add value
                                                                                                                                                            • Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions
                                                                                                                                                            • Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish

                                                                                                                                                              • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                • Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Correspondence analysis – Fish and shellfish, September 2015
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
                                                                                                                                                                • Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious
                                                                                                                                                                  • Frozen breaded fish and tinned fish/shellfish stand out on convenience
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cured fish has the most sophisticated image
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20

                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                            Fish and Shellfish - UK - December 2015

                                                                                                                                                                            £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)