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Food Retailing - Spain - November 2010

  • The consensus economic forecast is for a further small decline in GDP in 2010 and only a marginal increase in 2011.
  • The retail trade will remain subdued in the short term because of high unemployment, high personal indebtedness and an oversupplied housing market.
  • However we estimate that all retail sales will rise marginally (+0.5%) in 2010. The weak comparative (-6.1% in 2009) coupled with the return of some consumer price inflation (c.1.5%) will have helped.
  • But food retailers’ sales are predicted to rise at the slower rate of +0.1%, reaching €88.2 billion excl. VAT for the year.
  • Two main factors lead us to anticipate this relative underperformance against all retail sales - food and drink deflation (c. 1.1%) and strong demand for durable goods in the first half as consumers brought forward purchases ahead of the VAT rise in July.
  • But the food sector is forecast to slowly gain retail market share through the rest of the forecast period to 2015 by which time it will account for over 45% of all retail sales.
  • An ageing population will impact in various ways on the food market. Although it points to lower average basket values it should benefit food specialists where usage levels are highest among older consumers.
  • Spending on food and drink fell by 3.2% in 2009 to €104.3 billion (incl. VAT).
  • Average annual deflation in the category has been running at just over 1.1% for the last two years with global price increases being offset by the heavy discounting activities of the leading food retailers.
  • Spaniards also cut back on eating out in 2009, with spending falling by almost 10%. To some extent this may have underpinned in-home sales of food and drink.
  • The severe recession in Spain saw every retail sector contracting in 2009. Food operators were less badly affected than most although sector sales did slide by 3.2% - the same amount as the food and drink market.
  • Outlet data is not available for the period of the recession, but anecdotal evidence suggests the number of smaller food shops may have declined at a lower rate than previously because more consumers have been choosing to shop locally.
  • Spain is the most fragmented food sector in Western Europe with the top five players capturing just 50% of food retailers’ sales in 2009.
  • The reason for this is that food specialists and neighbourhood stores remain popular with many consumers.
  • In 2009 the marketplace was characterised by less loyal and more cost conscious shoppers, heavy discounting and promotional activity by the market leaders, growth in own brand sales and closure of underperforming stores.
  • The market leader, supermarket operator Mercadona, widened its lead over multi-format group Carrefour in 2009 and gained the most market share last year.
  • Hypermarkets struggled for a second consecutive year as consumers remained reluctant to shop out-of-town for their groceries.
  • El Corte Inglés’ hypermarket format, Hipercor, was especially badly hit with its sales falling by over 16% which we put down to its more upmarket positioning.
  • Consumers migrated to more local stores including supermarkets like Mercadona and discount outlets - Dia, Lidl and Aldi all performed well.
  • At the back end of the year Catalan group Bon Preu announced the acquisition of the ITM stores and Galerías Primero was snapped up by El Arbol.

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Table of contents

  1. Market in Brief

    • Report Scope

        • Technical notes
          • Definitions
            • Store definitions
              • Financial definitions
                • Currencies
                  • Figure 1: Exchange rates, € to other European currencies, 2004-08
                • Country codes
                  • Figure 2: Country codes
                • VAT
                  • Figure 3: Europe: Standard VAT rates, 2008
              • Broader Market Environment

                  • The economy
                    • Implications for food retailers
                      • Population
                        • Implications for food retailers
                        • Competitive Context

                          • Key points
                            • Food and drink lags all consumer spend
                              • Figure 4: Spain: Consumer spending, growth in main categories, 2004-09
                            • Eating out loses ground
                                • Figure 5: Spain: Consumer spending on food and drink and other select categories, 2005-09
                              • Food and drink prices fall in 2009 and 2010
                                • Figure 6: Spain: Food, drink and tobacco prices, 2002-09
                            • What Consumers Look for in a Supermarket

                                  • Figure 7: Deciding factors in shopping for food, drink and household products, Spain, 2009
                                  • Figure 8: Deciding factors in shopping for food, drink and household products, Spain, 2005-09
                              • Where Consumers Shop

                                • Spanish consumers shop under several roofs
                                    • Figure 9: Shops used regularly/occasionally, Spain, 2009
                                  • Including food specialists
                                    • Figure 10: Where consumers shop regularly, Spain, GB, Germany and France, 2009
                                  • Particularly the over 35s
                                  • Sector Size and Forecast

                                    • Key points
                                      • Economic and consumer spending outlook
                                        • Retail outlook and forecasts
                                          • Figure 11: Spain: Food retail sales, 2005-15
                                        • Recent trends in food retailing
                                          • Outlet and enterprise data
                                            • Figure 12: Enterprise and outlet numbers, 2009
                                          • Hypermarkets
                                            • Figure 13: Spain: Hypermarkets, 1973-2009
                                        • Retail Competitor Analysis

                                          • Key points
                                            • Sector sales contract
                                              • A particularly difficult year again for hypermarkets…
                                                • …and Hipercor in particular
                                                  • Mercadona gains market share
                                                    • Carrefour loses ground…
                                                      • … but starts to fight back in 2010
                                                        • Eroski shopper numbers rise
                                                          • Foreign players – mixed fortunes
                                                            • Figure 14: Spain: Leading food retailers, 2009/10
                                                          • Market shares
                                                            • Figure 15: Spain: Leading food retailers’ market shares, 2008 and 2009
                                                        • Aldi (Europe)

                                                            • Figure 16: Aldi (Europe): Sales as share of all food retailers' sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                            • Figure 17: Aldi (Germany): Sales as share of all food retailers' sales in Germany, 2005-09
                                                            • Figure 18: Aldi: Sales as share of all food retailers' sales in various European countries, 2005-09
                                                          • Strategic evaluation
                                                              • Figure 19: Aldi: Stores per million capita in selected European countries, 2009
                                                            • Recent history
                                                              • Sales performance
                                                                • Figure 20: Aldi: Germany’s contribution to Aldi European sales, 2005-09
                                                                • Figure 21: Aldi (Europe): Group sales performance, 2005-09
                                                              • Store portfolio
                                                                  • Figure 22: Aldi (Europe): Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                  • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                  • Auchan

                                                                      • Figure 23: Auchan: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                                      • Figure 24: Auchan: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in France, 2005-09
                                                                      • Figure 25: Auchan: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Spain, 2005-09
                                                                    • Strategic evaluation
                                                                      • Margins under pressure from deflation
                                                                        • Russian market shows promise
                                                                          • Wider format experimentation has dangers
                                                                            • Recent history
                                                                              • Financial performance
                                                                                  • Figure 26: Auchan: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                • Results for the first half of 2010
                                                                                  • Figure 27: Auchan: Estimated European sales, by country, 2005-09
                                                                                  • Figure 28: Auchan: Share of group sales, by region, 2005-09
                                                                                • Store portfolio
                                                                                    • Figure 29: Auchan: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                    • Brands
                                                                                      • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                      • Carrefour

                                                                                          • Figure 30: Carrefour: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                                                        • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                          • Recent history
                                                                                            • Financial performance
                                                                                                • Figure 31: Carrefour: Breakdown of European sales, 2009
                                                                                                • Figure 32: Carrefour: Total sales growth rates, by country, 2005-08 and 2005-09
                                                                                                • Figure 33: Carrefour: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                              • Consumer sales
                                                                                                • Figure 34: Carrefour: Sales through branded network, group total and Europe, 2005-09
                                                                                              • First half 2010
                                                                                                • Store portfolio
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Carrefour: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                  • European operations
                                                                                                    • France
                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Carrefour: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in France, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Carrefour France: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Carrefour France: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Belgium
                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Carrefour Belgium: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Belgium, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Carrefour Belgium: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Carrefour Belgium: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Greece
                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Carrefour Greece: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Greece, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Carrefour Greece: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Carrefour Greece: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Italy
                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Carrefour Italy: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Italy, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Carrefour Italy: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Carrefour Italy: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Poland
                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Carrefour Poland: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Poland, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Carrefour Poland: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Carrefour Poland: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Portugal
                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Carrefour Portugal: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Portugal, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Carrefour Portugal: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Carrefour Portugal: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Romania
                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Carrefour Romania: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Romania, 2006-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Carrefour Romania: Group financial performance and outlet data, 2006-09
                                                                                                    • Spain
                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Carrefour Spain: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Spain, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Carrefour Spain: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Carrefour Spain: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Turkey
                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Carrefour Turkey: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Carrefour Turkey: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                        • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                        • E. Leclerc

                                                                                                            • Figure 61: E. Leclerc: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                                                                            • Figure 62: E. Leclerc: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in France, 2005-09
                                                                                                          • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                            • Recent history
                                                                                                              • Financial performance
                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: E. Leclerc: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: E Leclerc: Estimated sales performance in international markets, 2009
                                                                                                                • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: E. Leclerc: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: E. Leclerc: International food outlets, 2005-09
                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: E Leclerc: Non-food outlets, 2009
                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                    • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                                    • Groupement des Mousquetaires (Intermarché)

                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Intermarché/ITM Entreprises: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Intermarché/ITM Entreprises: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in France, 2005-09
                                                                                                                      • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                        • Recent history
                                                                                                                          • Financial performance
                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Groupement des Mousquetaires: Group sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                            • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Groupement des Mousquetaires: Food outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Groupement des Mousquetaires: Non-food outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                                                • Mercadona

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Mercadona: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales in Spain, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                  • Recent history
                                                                                                                                    • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                      • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Mercadona: Group financial performance, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                      • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Mercadona: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                          • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                          • Schwarz Group

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Schwarz Group: Sales as share of all food retailers sales in Europe, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                            • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                              • Limitations at home
                                                                                                                                                • But further opportunities abroad
                                                                                                                                                  • Smaller format
                                                                                                                                                    • Straying too far from its roots?
                                                                                                                                                      • Recent history
                                                                                                                                                        • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Schwarz Group: Estimated Group sales performance, 2005/06-2009/10
                                                                                                                                                          • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Schwarz Group: Estimated outlet numbers, 2005/06-2009/10
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Schwarz Group: Store formats, 2010
                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                            • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                            • SPAR International

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 80: SPAR (Europe): Sales as share of all European food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                              • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                • History
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: SPAR International: Year of entry, by country
                                                                                                                                                                • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: SPAR International: Retail sales by country, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: SPAR International: Estimated European sales exclusive of sales tax, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • European operations
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: SPAR (Austria): Sales as share of Austrian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: SPAR (Belgium): Sales as share of all Belgian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: SPAR (Croatia): Sales as share of all Croatian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: SPAR (Czech Republic): Sales as share of all Czech food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: SPAR (Denmark): Sales as share of all Danish food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: SPAR (France): Sales as share of all French food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: SPAR (Germany): Sales as share of all German food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: SPAR (Greece): Sales as share of all Greek food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: SPAR (Hungary): Sales as share of all Hungarian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: SPAR (Ireland): Sales as share of all Irish food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: SPAR (Italy): Sales as share of all Italian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: SPAR (Netherlands): Sales as share of all Dutch food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 96: SPAR (Norway): Sales as share of all Norwegian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 97: SPAR (Poland): Sales as share of all Polish food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 98: SPAR (Romania): Sales as share of all Romanian food retailers’ sales, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 99: SPAR (Russia): Sales as share of all Russian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 100: SPAR (Slovenia): Sales as share of all Slovenian food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 101: SPAR (Spain): Sales as share of all Spanish food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 102: SPAR (Switzerland): Sales as share of all Swiss food retailers’ sales, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 103: SPAR (UK): Sales as share of all UK food retailers’ sales, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: SPAR International: Sales and outlets, by country outside Europe, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 105: SPAR International: Outlet data, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 106: SPAR International: Sales per m², by country (Europe), 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 107: SPAR International: Store formats, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                    • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                      • Population
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Europe top 5: Population breakdown, by age group, 2005
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Europe top 5: Population breakdown, by age group, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Europe top 5: Population breakdown, by age group, 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Europe top 5: Population breakdown, by age group, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • GDP
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Europe top 5: GDP (in current prices) 2000-Q2 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Europe top 5: GDP growth rates (in constant prices), 2000-Q2 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer spending
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Europe top 5: Consumer spending (in current prices) 2001-09
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: Europe top 5: Consumer spending growth rates (in constant prices) 2001-09
                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer prices
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Europe top 5: Consumer prices, 2001-Q3 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Food consumer prices
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Europe top 5: Consumer prices for food, 2001-October 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Europe top 5: Average rate of unemployment, 2001-Q2 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Interest rates
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: UK and Eurozone: Interest rates, 2004-Q1 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Europe top 5: Consumer confidence, January 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Where do Consumers Shop ?

                                                                                                                                                                      • Spain
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 131: Shops used regularly/occasionally, by demographics, Spain, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 132: Shops used regularly/occasionally, by demographics, Spain, 2009

                                                                                                                                                                    Food Retailing - Spain - November 2010

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