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Fragrances - US - September 2013

“The fragrance category is highly competitive, with fine fragrances often being viewed as occasional use items. However, innovations that add functionality combined with creative retailing and packaging opportunities could lead to increased usage, helping to propel future category growth.”

– Shannon Romanowski, Beauty and Personal Care Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What opportunities are there to improve the struggling mass fragrance market?
  • How can brands extend fragrance beyond an occasional use item?
  • What opportunities are there to better align retail spaces with consumer shopping habits?

 

The fragrance category is expected to remain on a growth trajectory through 2018, though at slower rates than previously predicted. After a strong 2011, the category has faltered a bit as a competitive marketplace and the proliferation of scent in categories outside of fine fragrance have led to some degree of consumer apathy. However, consumers are seeking unique and hard to find items, as indicated by the success of the prestige market. Although the prestige market is prospering, the mass market is slumping, as these retailers are not broadly viewed as fragrance destinations.

Looking ahead, category growth may be closely tied to added benefits and improved functionality. Health and wellness benefits such as improved sleep or relieving headaches could increase the value proposition of fragrance while potentially expanding the appeal of the category to a typically less engaged audience such as older consumers and men. Retailing opportunities and customizable packaging could also be beneficial in helping consumers shop the category and providing users with products that reflect their personal sense of taste and style.

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has segmented the fragrance market as follows:

  • Men’s fragrances – cologne, body spray
  • Women’s fragrances – perfume, body spray For the consumer portions of this report fragrances are defined as more traditional, higher-priced items that have limited functionality beyond scent and include perfume, cologne, travel-sized fragrance, other formats (such as solids), and body spray.
  • Line extension items (which are not included in sales data) refer to scented personal care items such as lotions, soap/shower gel, powder, and aftershave.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                      • The market
                        • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
                      • Market factors
                        • Aging population creates challenges for fragrance industry
                          • Figure 2: U.S. population, by age, 2013 and 2018
                        • Economic indicators improving
                          • The consumer
                            • Fragrance market impacted by scented line extension items
                              • Figure 3: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, any, June/July 2013
                            • Fragrance is part of daily routine for some, viewed as a special treat for others
                              • Figure 4: Top five reasons for wearing fragrance, June/July 2013
                            • Consumers interested in added benefits and new forms
                              • Figure 5: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June/July 2013
                            • Majority of respondents interested in fragrance box subscriptions
                              • Figure 6: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June/July 2013
                            • Interest in refillable and customized packaging options skews young
                              • Figure 7: Interest in packaging, by gender by age, June/July 2013
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • What opportunities are there to improve the struggling mass fragrance market?
                                  • Issues
                                    • Insights: Creative retailing, appeal to men, expand selection of new forms
                                      • How can brands extend fragrance beyond an occasional use item?
                                        • Issues
                                          • Insights: Identify new usage occasions, add functionality
                                            • What opportunities are there to better align retail spaces with consumer shopping habits?
                                              • Issues
                                                • Insights: Merchandize by benefit, move outside of the fragrance aisle
                                                • Trend Applications

                                                    • Trend: Slow it All Down
                                                      • Trend: Mood to Order
                                                        • Mintel Futures: Human
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Fragrance category continues to recover
                                                              • Future growth predicted, though through a cloud of uncertainty
                                                                • Sales and forecast of fragrances
                                                                  • Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                  • Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                    • Figure 10: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Aging population creates challenges
                                                                      • Figure 11: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, by age, June/July 2013
                                                                    • Improving economy, wealth disparity benefit prestige sector
                                                                      • Figure 12: Household income distribution, 2011
                                                                    • Multicultural populations represent opportunity
                                                                      • Figure 13: Fragrance any usage, by white, black, and Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Scent expands through lower-priced items
                                                                        • Figure 14: Body spray launches, by company, 2012-13*
                                                                      • Scented shower products are most used line extension product
                                                                        • Figure 15: Fragrance usage, June-July 2013
                                                                      • Women, younger consumers drive use of line extension items
                                                                        • Figure 16: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                        • Figure 17: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                      • Line extension items appeal to budget-conscious consumers
                                                                        • Figure 18: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Women’s fragrances outpacing men’s in terms of sales, share
                                                                          • Sales of fragrances, by segment
                                                                            • Figure 19: Sales of fragrances, segmented by type, 2011 and 2013 (est)
                                                                        • Segment Performance – Women’s Fragrances

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Women’s fragrances on an upward trajectory
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of women’s fragrances
                                                                                • Figure 20: Total U.S. sales and forecast of women’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                            • Segment Performance – Men’s Fragrances

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Men’s fragrance segment still recovering from recession
                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of men’s fragrances
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Total U.S. sales and forecast of men’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                                • Retail Channels

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Fragrance sales dominated by other retail channels
                                                                                      • Sales of fragrances, by channel
                                                                                        • Figure 22: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, 2011 and 2013
                                                                                      • Prestige retailers prospering while mass fragrance market struggles
                                                                                          • Figure 23: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
                                                                                      • Brand Usage

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Old Spice, Axe are most used brands among men
                                                                                            • Young women are using Bath & Body Works and Victoria’s Secret
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Brands of aftershave and cologne used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Brands of perfume/cologne/toilet water used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                          • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                            • New product launch trends
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Fragrance product launches, by subcategory, 2008-13*
                                                                                            • Category innovations
                                                                                              • Fragrance subscription boxes
                                                                                                • Natural/vegan fragrances
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Share of fragrance product launches, by botanical/herbal and ethical claims, 2008-13*
                                                                                                • Nighttime fragrances
                                                                                                  • Smell like your favorite…
                                                                                                    • …destination
                                                                                                      • …dessert
                                                                                                        • …mythical or magical creature
                                                                                                          • …season
                                                                                                            • …university
                                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                              • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                • Theme: Celebrity endorsements
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Katy Perry killer queen ad, 2013
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Taylor Swift Taylor ad, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Theme: Packaging
                                                                                                                    • Theme: Sexual attraction
                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Gucci Guilty Black ad, 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: David Beckham Classic photo shoot, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Social Media

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Key social media metrics
                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Key brand metrics, fragrance brands, August 2013
                                                                                                                      • Market overview
                                                                                                                        • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Usage and awareness of selected fragrance brands, July 2013
                                                                                                                        • Interaction with brands
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Interaction with selected fragrance brands, July 2013
                                                                                                                        • Online conversations
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Online conversations on selected Fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Where are people talking about fragrance brands?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                        • What are people talking about?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                          • Chanel
                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Chanel social media indicators, August 2013
                                                                                                                          • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                              • Victoria’s Secret
                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Victoria’s Secret key social media indicators, August 2013
                                                                                                                              • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                  • Dolce & Gabbana
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Dolce & Gabbana key social media indicators, August 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                      • Ralph Lauren
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Ralph Lauren key social media indicators, august 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                          • Estée Lauder
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Estée Lauder key social media indicators, August 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                              • Calvin Klein
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Calvin Klein key social media indicators, August 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                                • Usage

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Majority of women use perfume
                                                                                                                                                      • Age impacts use of fine fragrance
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                      • Budget-conscious women turning to other fragrance formats
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                      • Users of Victoria’s Secret, Dolce & Gabbana are an engaged audience
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Any fragrance usage, by each female brand used, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Any fragrance usage, by each male brand used, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for women, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for men, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Fragrance Selection

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Sampling influences purchase decisions
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Fine fragrance selection, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Young women more likely to exhibit budget-conscious behavior
                                                                                                                                                            • Brands have opportunity to extend advertising efforts among young men
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Reasons for Wearing Fragrance

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Women motivated by emotional benefits of wearing fine fragrance
                                                                                                                                                                • Men more likely to be occasional users of fine fragrance
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Interest in Product Innovations – Forms/Benefits

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Fragrances for clothing/fabric generate highest level of interest
                                                                                                                                                                    • New forms and benefits appeal to young category users
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Interest in new product forms/benefits, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                    • Multiple-benefit fragrances appeal to budget-conscious consumers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                    • Characteristics of those interested in hair perfume
                                                                                                                                                                      • Overview of CHAID analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity to reach those interested in hair perfume
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Interest in new fragrance benefits/forms, CHAID Table output, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in Product Innovations – Retailing Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Women enthused by fragrance subscription boxes
                                                                                                                                                                              • Mobile apps could be opportunity to target young men
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Interest in retailing opportunities, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                            • Interest in Product Innovations – Packaging

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Refillable fragrance bottles appeal to budget-conscious and eco-friendly consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Interest in customized and adorned packaging options skews young
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Interest in packaging, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Any interest in packaging, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Any interest in packaging, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes Toward Fragrance

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fragrance gifting popular, though some prefer to select their own scent
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mass retailers may not be viewed as fragrance destinations
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Younger respondents experiment and want to learn more, but also confused
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Multicultural consumers are highly involved in the category
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Fragrance any usage, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Black shoppers are seeking value, more information
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Asian consumers motivated by luxury
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Fine fragrance selection, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Household income distribution by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Attitudes toward fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                          • New benefits, forms, and packaging appeal to multicultural shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Interest in new product packaging, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Fragrance clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Group one: Habituals
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Group two: Basic
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Group three: Involved
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Fragrance any usage, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Fine fragrance selection, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Interest in new product packaging, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Attitudes toward fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Target clusters, by demographic, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fragrance usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Fragrance, any usage, by household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Fragrance, regular usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fine fragrance selection
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Reasons for wearing fine fragrance
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in product innovations – retailing opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes toward fragrance
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – CHAID Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Interest in new personal care products – CHAID tree output, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Social Media

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand usage or awareness
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Chanel usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Estée Lauder usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Victoria’s Secret usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Dolce & Gabbana usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Ralph Lauren usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Calvin Klein usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Activities done
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Activities done, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Activities done, June-July 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Chanel – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Estée Lauder – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Victoria’s Secret – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Ralph Lauren – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Calvin Klein – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Online conversations
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by page type July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: U.S. Unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 115: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 116: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Racial, ethnic population growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 117: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 118: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Shifting U.S. demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 119: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 120: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Calvin Klein, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Chanel USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Condé Nast Publications Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dolce & Gabbana
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Macy's, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • OPI Products Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sephora
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Victoria's Secret
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Fragrances - US - September 2013

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