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Fragrances - US - September 2016

"Performance in the fragrances market has been lackluster due to the saturated nature of the category, increased competition from scented personal care items, and apathy among shoppers. Interest in natural claims can present opportunities for brands to better reach consumers, while custom or boutique fragrances may encourage increased consumer spend. Adults might also be drawn to retailers with improved shopping experiences, including those that use technology to improve the experience of testing new scents."

- Margie Nanninga, Beauty & Personal Care Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Fragrances market continues to struggle
  • Confusion over ancillary products challenges fragrance brands
  • Splurge versus save mentality challenges sales
  • Product launch claims fail to align with consumer interests

For the purposes of this report, the fragrances market has been defined as follows:

  • Men’s fragrances – cologne, body spray
  • Women’s fragrances – perfume, body spray

“Perfume” is used as a general description to include all fine fragrance formats, such as parfum, eau de parfum, and eau de toilette. Body sprays are not traditionally thought of as fine fragrance, but their popularity in the market has led to their inclusion in the market size.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Fragrances market continues to struggle
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Confusion over ancillary products challenges fragrance brands
            • Figure 2: Ancillary product usage – Any use (net)^, June 2016
          • Splurge versus save mentality challenges sales
            • Figure 3: Retailers shopped, June 2016
          • Product launch claims fail to align with consumer interests
            • Figure 4: Share of fragrance product launches, by claim category, 2012-16*
          • The opportunities
            • Think outside of the box with retailing
              • Figure 5: Attitudes toward fragrances – Shopping frustrations, June 2016
            • Safe ingredients appeal to consumers
              • Figure 6: Trial and interest in fragrance ingredient innovations – Any use or interest (net)^, June 2016
            • Product innovations combat cost-savings mentality
              • Figure 7: Trial and interest in fragrance innovations, June 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Fragrances market continues to struggle
                • Most sales fall under women’s segment, men’s fragrances perform better
                  • Scented personal care items challenge fragrances
                    • Multicultural population benefits market while aging population slows growth
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Fragrances market continues to struggle
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2011-21
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Most sales fall under women’s segment, men’s segment more stable
                        • Figure 10: Share of US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, 2016
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, 2010-16 (est)
                      • Women’s fragrances dominate new launch activity, unisex offerings on the rise
                        • Figure 12: Share of fragrance product launches, by subcategory, 2011-16*
                        • Figure 13: Recent unisex fragrance launches
                      • Fragrance sales struggle across all retail channels
                        • Figure 14: Total us retail sales of fragrances, by channel, 2014 and 2016
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Adults spend their beauty and personal care budgets elsewhere
                        • Figure 15: Percent change of US retail sales of beauty and personal care products, by segment, at current prices, 2016*
                      • Fragrances challenged by scented personal care, body sprays
                        • Adults confuse ancillary products with scented personal care
                          • Figure 16: Ancillary product usage – Any use (net)^, June 2016
                          • Figure 17: Ancillary product benefits, June 2016
                        • Opportunities for more natural, convenience claims
                          • Figure 18: Share of fragrance product launches, by claim category, 2012-16*
                      • Market Factors

                        • Aging population challenges fragrance sales
                          • Figure 19: Population by age, 2011-21
                        • Increasing multicultural population presents opportunities
                          • Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, percent change, 2016-21
                          • Figure 21: Fragrance expenditures, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015-March 2016
                      • Key Initiatives – What You Need to Know

                        • Men rely on mass brands, women turn to Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works
                          • Customized fragrances, natural claims reach consumers
                            • Celebrity endorsements fail to engage consumers long-term
                              • Added benefits, improved retailing change how consumers shop the category
                              • Brand Usage of Fragrances

                                • Men rely on mass brands over fine fragrances
                                  • Figure 22: Brands of aftershave or cologne used in the last 12 months, January 2011-March 2016
                                • Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works engage women with new product launches
                                  • Figure 23: Brands of perfume, cologne, or toilet water used in the last 12 months, January 2011-March 2016
                                  • Figure 24: Top 10 fragrance companies in new product launch activity, by share, 2010-16*
                              • What’s In?

                                • Layering kits and fragrance oils prove that customization is still king
                                  • Interest in natural claims is growing
                                    • Unique marketing strategies stand out against a sea of celeb endorsements
                                    • What’s Out?

                                      • Celebrity endorsements continue to struggle despite steady stream of launches
                                        • Splurge versus save mentality, expectation of low prices slow overall market growth
                                          • Figure 25: Email campaign performance of select special promotion fragrance campaigns, 2016
                                      • What’s Next?

                                        • Unique scents inspire consumers
                                          • Added benefits encourage additional usage occasions
                                            • Retailers increase trial beyond magazine samples and scent testing stations
                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                              • Occasional users slow market growth
                                                • Shoppers influenced by convenience, low price points when choosing a retailer
                                                  • Subtle scents pique consumer interest
                                                    • Mixed attitudes highlight personal nature of scent preferences
                                                      • Ingredient claims, customizable scents are in demand
                                                      • Fragrance Usage

                                                        • Despite high market penetration, sales growth slowed by occasional users
                                                          • Figure 26: Fragrance usage – Any usage and regular usage, June 2016
                                                        • Higher engagement among younger adults
                                                          • Figure 27: Fragrance usage – Any use, by age, June 2016
                                                        • Hispanic, Black adults more engaged with fragrances
                                                          • Figure 28: Any fragrance usage (net) - Any and regular usage, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                      • Retailers Shopped

                                                        • Fragrance purchases made at a variety of retailers
                                                          • Low price points, convenience drive purchase locations
                                                            • Online retailers are reaching shoppers, but face challenges
                                                              • Figure 29: Retailers shopped, June 2016
                                                            • Younger adults shop lower-priced retailers, older adults prefer department stores
                                                              • Figure 30: Retailers shopped, by age, June 2016
                                                              • Figure 31: Retailers shopped, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                          • Fragrance Characteristics

                                                            • Subtle scents have widespread appeal
                                                              • Figure 32: Fragrance characteristics – Any rank (net)^, June 2016
                                                            • Long-lasting claims are top-of-mind
                                                              • Figure 33: Fragrance characteristics, by ranking, June 2016
                                                            • Strong claims resonate with men, women seek specific scent profiles
                                                              • Figure 34: Fragrance characteristics – Any rank (net)^, by gender and age, June 2016
                                                              • Figure 35: Fragrance characteristics – Any rank (net)^, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                          • Attitudes toward Fragrances

                                                            • Mixed attitudes highlight personal nature of scent preferences
                                                              • Shopping experience leaves room for improvement
                                                                • Ingredient concerns relatively low, but present opportunities
                                                                  • Figure 36: Attitudes toward fragrances, June 2016
                                                                • Younger consumers express dissatisfaction with scents
                                                                  • Figure 37: Attitudes toward fragrances, by age, June 2016
                                                                • Hispanics seek unique fragrances
                                                                  • Figure 38: Attitudes toward fragrances, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                              • Trial and Interest in Product Innovations

                                                                • Ingredient claims, customization appeal to consumers
                                                                  • Figure 39: Trial and interest in fragrance innovations – Any use or interest (net)^, June 2016
                                                                  • Figure 40: Trial and interest in fragrance innovations, June 2016
                                                                • Younger consumers, older women interested in innovations
                                                                  • Figure 41: Trial and interest in innovation – Any use or interest (net)^, by 18-34, 35-54, male 55+ and female 55+, June 2016
                                                                • Opportunities to reach Hispanics, Black consumers with fragrance innovations
                                                                  • Figure 42: Trial and interest in innovation – Any use or interest (net)^, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                • Data sources
                                                                  • Sales data
                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                          • Appendix – Market

                                                                              • Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                              • Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21

                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                          Fragrances - US - September 2016

                                                                          £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)