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Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - August 2016

"While brands are capitalizing on healthier attributes, chiefly protein and fiber content, the entire category faces significant competition from alternative breakfast options regarded as healthier and more portable. Continued focus on nutrition and on-the-go features could propel the category to future growth, but brands may well consider promoting frozen breakfast as an alternative to restaurant breakfasts, particularly as a weekend option."
- William Roberts, Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Frozen breakfast sales grow
  • Competition from foodservice breakfast options 
  • Other at-home options vie for attention at breakfast

For the purposes of this Report, frozen breakfast foods are covered as per the following definitions:

  • Frozen breakfast entrees (eg breakfast bowls, pancakes, etc)
  • Frozen breakfast handhelds (eg burritos, sandwiches, etc)
  • Frozen waffles
  • Other frozen breakfast food (including toaster pastries, French toast sticks, etc)

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Frozen breakfast sales grow
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Competition from foodservice breakfast options
            • Figure 2: Away-from-home breakfast behavior changes from one year ago, April 2016
          • Other at-home options vie for attention at breakfast
            • Figure 3: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Recognizable and less-processed attributes resonate
              • Figure 4: Opinions, by less-processed factors to increase purchase, May 2016
            • Occasional indulgence and gourmet options
              • Figure 5: Opinions, by indulgent factors to increase purchase, May 2016
            • Frozen breakfast as a relatively inexpensive introduction to other cuisines
              • Figure 6: Opinions, by money-saving factors to increase purchase, May 2016
            • Gourmet for on-the-go consumers
              • Figure 7: Opinions, by on-the-go factors to increase purchase, May 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category to grow 10% through 2021
                • Handhelds leading category growth
                  • Frozen options face strong competition – from foodservice and retail
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Slowing sales in frozen breakfast
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Handheld options propelling category growth
                      • Frozen breakfast handhelds
                        • Frozen waffles
                          • Frozen breakfast entrees
                            • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, in millions, 2011-21
                          • Other channels gain ground on supermarkets
                            • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, in millions, 2011-16
                        • Market Perspective

                          • Competition from foodservice breakfast options
                            • Figure 12: Away-from-home breakfast behavior changes from one year ago, April 2016
                          • Other at-home options vie for attention at breakfast
                            • Figure 13: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
                        • Market Factors

                          • Growth of households with children unsteady
                            • Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                          • Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for frozen breakfast options
                            • Figure 15: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Tyson attains top market share
                            • Frozen options highlighting protein content
                              • Familiar ingredients could draw consumers to frozen items
                              • Brand Sales of Frozen Breakfast Foods

                                • Hillshire merger leads Tyson to the top market share
                                  • Brand sales of frozen breakfast foods
                                    • Figure 16: MULO sales of frozen breakfast food, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Protein push for breakfast
                                    • Figure 17: Kellogg’s Eggo
                                    • Figure 18: Lean Cuisine Mornings
                                    • Figure 19: Tyson Foods Jimmy Dean Delights Frittatas
                                    • Figure 20: Protein-rich frozen breakfast launches
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Convenience alone insufficient to sell a product
                                    • Figure 21: Pinnacle Foods’ Aunt Jemima
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Cleaner labels with recognizable ingredients
                                    • Figure 22: Frozen Breakfast launches with free-from claims
                                  • Options catering to the free-from demand
                                    • Figure 23: Frozen Breakfast launches with free-from claims
                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                  • Most breakfast foods purchased at retail
                                    • Nutrition influencing purchase decision
                                      • Walmart leads retailers for frozen breakfast food purchase
                                        • Weekends offer frozen potential
                                          • Health resonates more with Millennial generation
                                            • Antibiotics in frozen meat a concern to Hispanic consumers
                                              • Recognizable ingredients resonate with consumers
                                                • Lower-income consumers more likely to skip breakfast
                                                • Breakfast Food Purchase

                                                  • Foodservice, retail options vie for similar audience
                                                    • Figure 24: Breakfast food purchase, by type, May 2016
                                                  • Health compelling Millennial breakfast choice
                                                    • Figure 25: Breakfast food purchase location, by generation, May 2016
                                                  • Leveraging restaurant brands, menu items among Hispanics
                                                    • Figure 26: Breakfast food purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Factors Influencing Purchase

                                                  • Taste leads purchase factors; nutrition and affordability rank highly
                                                    • Figure 27: Factors influencing purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Dads seeking energizing foods
                                                    • Figure 28: Factors influencing purchase, by parental status by gender with children in household, May 2016
                                                  • Portability, indulgence factor strongly in Hispanic breakfast choice
                                                    • Figure 29: Factors influencing purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Purchase Location for Frozen Breakfast Foods

                                                  • Walmart leads retailers of frozen breakfast foods
                                                    • Figure 30: Purchase location, May 2016
                                                  • Millennials shop a diversity of retailers for breakfast foods
                                                    • Figure 31: Purchase location, by generation, May 2016
                                                  • Hispanics shopping for frozen breakfast at multiple retailers
                                                    • Figure 32: Purchase location, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Breakfast Consumption

                                                  • Portability could lead frozen breakfast penetration
                                                    • Figure 33: Frozen breakfast consumption, by weekday vs. weekend, overall consumption in parentheses, May 2016
                                                  • Millennials leading generational consumption
                                                    • Figure 34: Frozen breakfast consumption, by generations, May 2016
                                                  • Parents purchasing frozen breakfast foods
                                                    • Figure 35: Frozen breakfast consumption, by parental status by gender with children in household, May 2016
                                                  • Frozen options integral to Hispanics’ weekend breakfast
                                                    • Figure 36: Frozen breakfast consumption, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Reasons for Consumption

                                                  • Convenience drives the category
                                                    • Figure 37: Reasons for consumption, May 2016
                                                  • Nutritional attributes could lure Millennials
                                                    • Figure 38: Reasons for consumption, by generations, May 2016
                                                  • Quality, nutrition resonate with Hispanic consumers
                                                    • Figure 39: Reasons for consumption, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Important Attributes

                                                  • Protein and fiber compel purchase
                                                    • Figure 40: Important attributes, May 2016
                                                  • Sodium factors strongly in frozen breakfast meat
                                                    • Figure 41: Important attributes, by generations, May 2016
                                                  • Antibiotic-free meat of notable importance to Hispanic consumers
                                                    • Figure 42: Important attributes, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Factors to Increase Purchase

                                                  • Familiarity breeds trust
                                                    • Figure 43: Factors to increase purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Organic claims could compel Millennial purchase
                                                    • Figure 44: Factors to increase purchase, by generations, May 2016
                                                  • Recognizable ingredients resonate with parents
                                                    • Figure 45: Factors to increase purchase, by parental status by gender with children in household, May 2016
                                                    • Figure 46: Factors to increase purchase, by parental status by gender with children in household, May 2016
                                                  • Sustainable options resonating with Hispanic consumers
                                                    • Figure 47: Factors to increase purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Opinions of Frozen Breakfast Foods

                                                  • Health, nutrition, and indulgence could resonate
                                                    • Figure 48: Opinions, May 2016
                                                  • Functional frozen options could lure Millennials
                                                    • Figure 49: Opinions, by generations, May 2016
                                                  • Income levels and frozen breakfast opinions
                                                    • Figure 50: Opinions, by household income, May 2016
                                                  • Other daypart potential for frozen breakfast foods
                                                    • Figure 51: Opinions, by purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Recognizable and less-processed attributes resonate
                                                    • Figure 52: Opinions, by less-processed factors to increase purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Occasional indulgence and gourmet options
                                                    • Figure 53: Opinions, by indulgent factors to increase purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Frozen breakfast as a relatively inexpensive introduction to other cuisines
                                                    • Figure 54: Opinions, by money-saving factors to increase purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Gourmet for on-the-go consumers
                                                    • Figure 55: Opinions, by on-the-go factors to increase purchase, May 2016
                                                  • Hispanics seeking more on-the-go breakfast options
                                                    • Figure 56: Opinions, by Hispanic origin, May 2016
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – Market

                                                                • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 66: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                • Figure 67: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 68: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                • Figure 69: US sales of frozen breakfast foods through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                • Figure 70: MULO sales of frozen breakfast entrees by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 71: MULO sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 72: MULO sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

                                                            Companies Covered

                                                            • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                            Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - August 2016

                                                            £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)