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Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2015

"The frozen breakfast foods category reached $3.2 billion in 2015, although it struggled to grow sales over the last two years. The category continues to face competition from other breakfast foods viewed as healthier or more convenient, as well as foodservice options."

Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  •     Frozen breakfast handhelds only segment to grow
  •     Strong competition from other breakfast foods
  •     Consumers remain skeptical about nutrition

Manufacturers should take advantage of positive consumer perceptions of these foods as affordable and comparable alternatives to foodservice breakfast. New product development focused on nutritious options with recognizable ingredients, and promoting consumption outside of the breakfast occasion may help sustain future category growth.

Frozen breakfast foods already benefit from relatively high household penetration and positive perceptions related to their convenience, taste, and affordability, especially compared to foodservice options. Improvements to the nutrition and portability of these items, as well as promoting expanded consumption occasions, can help the category remain competitive.  

Current market growth has struggled due to sales declines across all segments, aside from the frozen breakfast handhelds segment. The convenience and portability of the frozen breakfast handhelds segment has allowed it to continue performing well, although year-over-year growth has significantly declined. Other category segments including frozen breakfast entrées, waffles, and other frozen breakfast foods have struggled to grow as a result of consumer concerns about the healthfulness and ingredients in these products. 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Frozen breakfast handhelds only segment to grow
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by segment, 2010-15
          • Strong competition from other breakfast foods
            • Figure 2: Personal consumption and purchase of select breakfast foods, April 2015
          • Consumers remain skeptical about nutrition
            • Figure 3: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Emphasize similarities to foodservice options
              • Figure 4: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
            • Promote occasions outside of breakfast
              • Figure 5: Frozen breakfast food behaviors, April 2015
            • Highlight product ingredients, nutrition
              • Figure 6: Important product attributes, April 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Frozen breakfast sales struggle to grow
                • Increased away-from-home food spending
                  • Declining households with children negatively impact category
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Strong historic growth, but future gains expected to be modest
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-2020
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-2020
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Frozen breakfast handhelds largest segment, only growth
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment share, 2015
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by segment, 2010- 2015
                    • Other retail channels gain market share
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods ($ millions), by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Foodservice a competitive threat
                      • Figure 13: Day part where consumers purchase, retail versus foodservice, by nets – February 2015
                    • Numerous breakfast options
                      • Figure 14: Personal consumption and purchase of select breakfast foods, April 2015
                  • Market Factors

                    • Favorable spending outlook
                      • Figure 15: Consumer Confidence, 2007-15
                      • Figure 16: Food sales at home and away from home, 2003-15
                    • Decline in households with children
                      • Figure 17: Personal consumption of select frozen breakfast foods, November 2008 – December 2014
                      • Figure 18: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Hillshire, Kellogg sales represent more than half of the category
                      • Convenient, healthy formats see success
                        • Waffle segment declines
                          • BFY products to become more mainstream
                          • Manufacturer Sales of Frozen Breakfast Foods

                            • Hillshire, Kellogg represent more than half of category sales
                              • Manufacturer sales of frozen breakfast foods
                                • Figure 19: MULO sales of frozen breakfast food, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Portable options
                                • Figure 20: MULO sales of Jimmy Dean’s frozen breakfast handhelds
                                • Figure 21: MULO sales of Kellogg’s frozen breakfast handhelds
                                • Figure 22: MULO sales of Kellogg’s Eggo frozen breakfast entrées
                                • Figure 23: MULO sales of hot Pockets frozen breakfast handhelds
                              • Better-for-you
                                • Figure 24: MULO sales of De Wafelbakkers frozen breakfast entrées
                                • Figure 25: MULO sales of Lean Cuisine Morning Collection frozen breakfast handhelds
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Real fruit not enough to boost sales
                                • Figure 26: MULO sales of Pillsbury other frozen breakfast foods
                                • Figure 27: MULO sales of Weight Watchers frozen breakfast entrées
                              • Waffle segment struggles
                                • Figure 28: “Breakfast Network” Eggo TV commercial, April 2015
                                • Figure 29: MULO sales of Kellogg’s frozen waffles
                              • Homestyle handhelds
                                • Figure 30: MULO sales of Marie Callender’s frozen breakfast handhelds
                                • Figure 31: MULO sales of Odom’s Tennessee Pride’s frozen breakfast handhelds
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Artificial is out, ingredients you can see, recognize are in
                                • Retail brands put the fresh in frozen?
                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                  • Parents, Millennials most likely to eat frozen breakfast foods
                                    • Consumers value nutritional attributes
                                      • Occasions outside of breakfast equally important
                                      • Frozen Breakfast Foods Consumption

                                        • Four in five adults eat frozen breakfast foods
                                            • Figure 32: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, April 2015
                                          • Households with children more likely to eat frozen breakfast foods
                                            • Figure 33: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, by parental status, April 2015
                                          • iGeneration/Millennials more likely to eat all types of frozen breakfast foods
                                            • Figure 34: Frozen breakfast foods consumption, by generation, April 2015
                                        • Reasons for Eating

                                          • Ease of preparation, convenience, largest drivers
                                            • Figure 35: Reasons for eating frozen breakfast foods, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
                                            • Figure 36: Reasons for eating frozen breakfast foods, by generation, April 2015
                                        • Important Product Attributes

                                          • High protein, fiber, most important
                                            • Figure 37: Important product attributes, April 2015
                                        • Influential Factors for Increasing Purchase

                                          • Quality ingredients, product trial influential
                                            • Figure 38: Influential factors for increasing purchase, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
                                            • Figure 39: Influential factors for increasing purchase, by parental status, April 2015
                                          • Restaurant-quality options can boost purchase among males
                                            • Figure 40: Influential factors for increasing purchase – Restaurant-quality options – CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
                                        • Frozen Breakfast Food Behaviors

                                          • Consumption not limited to the breakfast occasion
                                            • Figure 41: Frozen breakfast food behaviors, April 2015
                                          • iGeneration/Millennials more likely to eat on the go
                                            • Figure 42: Frozen breakfast foods behaviors, by generation, April 2015
                                          • Handhelds, other frozen breakfast foods more versatile
                                            • Figure 43: Frozen breakfast foods behaviors, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
                                        • Attitudes toward Frozen Breakfast Foods

                                          • Appeal to Millennials’ willingness to try new foods
                                            • Figure 44: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by generation, April 2015
                                          • Restaurant savings to appeal to frozen handheld eaters
                                            • Figure 45: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by frozen breakfast foods consumption – Any consumption, April 2015
                                          • Hispanics more critical of food pricing, ingredients
                                            • Figure 46: Attitudes toward frozen breakfast foods – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                          • Data sources
                                            • Sales data
                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                        • Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2010-2020
                                                        • Figure 48: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of other frozen breakfast food, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 53: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                        • Figure 54: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 55: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                        • Figure 56: US sales of frozen breakfast foods, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                        • Figure 57: MULO sales of frozen breakfast entrées, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 59: MULO sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 60: MULO sales of other frozen breakfast foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                    • Appendix – Consumer

                                                        • Figure 61: Attitudes/opinions about food, November 2013 – December 2014
                                                        • Figure 62: Attitudes/opinions about food, November 2013 – December 2014
                                                    • Appendix – CHAID Analysis

                                                      • Methodology
                                                        • Figure 63: Influential factors for increasing purchase – CHAID – Table output, April 2015

                                                    Companies Covered

                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                    Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2015

                                                    £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)