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Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks: The Market - US - February 2010

In this two-part report on fruit juice and juice drinks, Mintel explores the fruit juice and juice drinks market with an in-depth look into market sales, segment performance, and brand performances among other market-centric factors. The consumer-centric view is covered in Mintel’s Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks: The Consumer—U.S., January 2010. This report gives fruit juice/juice drinks manufacturers and marketers a glimpse into market performance as a whole. The core themes explored in this report include, but are not limited to:

  • How the market has performed in the last five years; what is the growth outlook for the next five years
  • How the internal as well as external competition has influenced the market growth
  • How the current recession has affected the consumer choices in choosing brands, flavors and form of packaging
  • What role private label juice/drinks have played in market growth
  • Which form of packaging has experienced growth and which one has declined
  • What flavors consumers favored during the recession; what flavors are falling out of favor
  • How the negative outlook in one brand has hobbled the overall market
  • What new products promise future growth

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Advertising creative
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • In a nutshell: a stagnant market with a slow growth outlook
                      • Fruit juice suffers from the recession and decline in market-leading brands
                        • Fruit drinks stable and benefit from recession
                          • Supermarkets command more than half of all market sales but exhibit decline in market share
                            • Top suppliers account for nearly 60% of total sales, but lose share to private labels
                              • Can coconut water revive the ailing juice/drinks market?
                              • Insights and Opportunities—A Market-centric View

                                • Position 100% juice beyond its nutritional platform to compete effectively with other beverages
                                  • Water-diluted juices/drinks positioned as thirst quenchers
                                    • Coconut water as a replacement for sports drinks
                                      • Carbonated and sparkling juices—a healthy alternative to soda
                                        • Thinking beyond the breakfast table
                                          • Figure 1: Breakfast habits, June 2009
                                        • Commute pressures likely determine breakfast habits
                                          • Figure 2: Average commuting times in select major U.S. cities, October 2006
                                        • Opportunity to target commuters, breakfast eaters on the go and at work
                                        • Inspire Trends

                                            • Too many brands and extensions create confusion and burden
                                              • What’s it about?
                                                • What we have seen
                                                  • Implication for fruit juice/drinks category
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks
                                                        • Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                        • Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                      • Walmart sales
                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Competition from categories within the retail space
                                                            • Fruit juice and drinks experience internal competition
                                                              • Figure 5: Fruit juice and juice drinks price comparison* in FDMx, 2004-09
                                                            • External competition from other non-alcoholic beverages heats up
                                                              • Figure 6: Top flavor claims in new carbonated products, 2009
                                                              • Figure 7: Top flavor claims in new RTD tea products, 2009
                                                              • Figure 8: Top flavor claims in new flavored water products, 2009
                                                            • Fresh fruits perceived as a better choice over juice
                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Fruit juice tops dollar sales; juice drinks score in volume
                                                                  • Consumer choice influenced more from economy rather than health
                                                                    • Total sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, by segment
                                                                      • Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at current prices, by segment, 2004-14
                                                                      • Figure 10: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, by segment, 2007 and 2009
                                                                  • Segment Performance—Fruit Juice

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Total sales
                                                                        • Recession-torn consumers look for cheaper alternatives; private labels and juice drinks gain share
                                                                          • Super-premium juices turn in mixed performance
                                                                            • Total sales and forecast of fruit juice
                                                                              • Figure 11: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice, 2004-14
                                                                            • FDMx sales
                                                                              • Bottled and aseptic juices gain on price inflation; fruit juice demand to grow for value-priced brands
                                                                                • One brand topples refrigerated juice; private labels wield influence
                                                                                  • Canned juices too expensive; frozen juice inconvenient
                                                                                    • FDMx sales of fruit juice by form
                                                                                      • Figure 12: FDMx dollar sales of fruit juice, by form, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                      • Figure 13: FDMx volume sales of fruit juice, by select form, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                    • Orange juice continues to fall out of favor; apple, grape, and cranberry flavors on the rise
                                                                                      • FDMx sales of fruit juice by flavor
                                                                                        • Figure 14: FDMx sales of fruit juice, by flavor*, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                    • Segment Performance—Juice Drinks

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Total sales
                                                                                          • Total sales and forecast of juice drinks
                                                                                            • Figure 15: U.S. sales and forecast of juice drinks, 2004-14
                                                                                          • Bottled fruit drinks decline, aseptic juice drinks benefit from innovation
                                                                                            • Functional juice drinks in refrigerated format proliferate and are successful
                                                                                              • FDMx sales of fruit drinks by form
                                                                                                • Figure 16: FDMx sales of juice drinks, by form, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                              • Cranberry is the top flavor in juice drinks
                                                                                                • FDMx sales of fruit drinks by flavor
                                                                                                  • Figure 17: FDMx sales of juice drinks, by flavor*, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                              • Retail Channels

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Supermarkets lose share to mass and other
                                                                                                    • Figure 18: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, by retail channel, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                                  • Pricing dilemma obstacle in growth
                                                                                                    • Simplifying the juice/drinks aisle
                                                                                                      • Figure 19: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at supermarkets, 2004-09
                                                                                                  • Retail Channels—Mass and Other

                                                                                                    • Mass merchandisers looking to get fast-moving items as consumers stick to basics
                                                                                                      • Figure 20: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at mass merchandisers and other stores, 2004-09
                                                                                                  • Retail Channels—Natural Channel

                                                                                                    • Natural channel/SPINS
                                                                                                      • Sales of fruit juices in the natural channel
                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, at current prices, 2007-09
                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
                                                                                                      • Natural channel sales by segment
                                                                                                        • Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, by segment, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                      • Brand table: Juices
                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Manufacturer and brand natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                      • Natural channel sales of juices by organic/non-organic
                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, by organic/non-organic, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • The number of adults watching their diets appears to have reached its high, but is still substantial
                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Incidence of presently watching/controlling diet, May 2004-June 2009
                                                                                                        • Adults watching their diet seek low-fat, low-sugar food products
                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Attributes diet watchers look for in food, 2006 and 2009
                                                                                                        • Adult obesity levels in the U.S. stabilize but still remain a cause of concern
                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2006
                                                                                                        • Consumer and government concerns for obesity-related issues spell negative outlook for juice industry
                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Reasons for watching/controlling diet, 2006 and 2009
                                                                                                        • Number of obese children and teens increases at an alarming rate in the U.S.
                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents, 2-19 years of age, 1976-2006
                                                                                                        • High-fructose corn syrup alienates consumers
                                                                                                          • Households with children impact fruit juice and juice drinks sales
                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Households, by presence of children, 1998-2008
                                                                                                          • Kids’ population growth offers better prospects for 2009-14 period
                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Population of kids aged 6-11, 2004-14
                                                                                                          • Teen population to remain flat; need to work on frequency growth
                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Teen population, 2004-14
                                                                                                          • Black and Hispanic population projections offer growth potential for the market
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
                                                                                                          • Recession constricts household spending on fruit juice and juice drinks
                                                                                                          • Companies and Brands

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Coca-Cola and PepsiCo top players, but position threatened by growing competition
                                                                                                                • Kraft, Ocean Spray, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group make small gains
                                                                                                                  • Private labels take away share from top and small manufacturers
                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: FDMx fruit juice and juice drink sales of leading companies, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                • Brand Share—Fruit Juice

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Tropicana and Minute Maid—the two iconic juice brands, on the decline
                                                                                                                      • Coca-Cola grows “Simply” concept into more flavors and blends
                                                                                                                        • Naked and Odwalla disappoint; face growing competition
                                                                                                                          • Nestlé declines first time in five years—recession to blame
                                                                                                                            • Private labels gain—benefit from recession and innovation
                                                                                                                              • Some brands shine on the strength of innovation
                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer and brand shares
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: FDMx brand sales of fruit juice in the U.S., part 1, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: FDMx brand sales of fruit juice in the U.S., part 2, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Juice Drinks

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Kraft garners small growth on the strength of Kool-Aid and Capri-Sun
                                                                                                                                    • Simply Citrus and Fuze contribute growth to Coca-Cola portfolio
                                                                                                                                      • Diet cranberry drinks keep Ocean Spray strong
                                                                                                                                        • Hawaiian Punch and Mott’s for Tots shine for Dr Pepper Snapple group
                                                                                                                                          • PepsiCo’s innovation Trop50 rakes in good sales
                                                                                                                                            • Sunny D and Tampico decline
                                                                                                                                              • New brands with “functional” touch thrive
                                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer and brand shares
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: FDMx brand sales of juice drinks in the U.S., part 1, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: FDMx brand sales of juice drinks in the U.S., part 2, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Brand Qualities

                                                                                                                                                • Tropicana and Minute Maid: line and brand extensions stretched too thin
                                                                                                                                                  • Simply Orange thrives on consistency and honesty
                                                                                                                                                    • Vita Coco: from an idea to a multimillion-dollar brand in five years
                                                                                                                                                    • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                                                      • Pace of new product launch declines considerably in 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Number of new product launches in juice and juice drinks, by juice, juice drinks and nectars, 2004-09
                                                                                                                                                      • Private label new product launch remains strong and on trend
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Number of new product launches in juice and juice drinks, by private label and non-private label, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                      • Product purity and environmentally friendly packaging among top claims
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Top ten claims in fruit juice new product launches, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Top ten claims in juice drinks new product launches, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                      • Functional claims in new juice/drinks nearly quadruple during 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Functional claims in juice and juice drinks new product launches, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • Immunity through antioxidants
                                                                                                                                                        • Cardiovascular claims grow but not in sales
                                                                                                                                                          • Digestive claims take a stride
                                                                                                                                                            • Other functional claims take diverse positioning
                                                                                                                                                              • Fruit and vegetable juice combination continues to attract new players
                                                                                                                                                                • Fruit in a bottle trend initiates
                                                                                                                                                                  • Trends in specifically children-targeted fruit juice and juice drinks
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Number of new fruit juice/drinks targeted to children and teens, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                  • Marketers build ads on usual themes; miss economy punch line
                                                                                                                                                                    • Functional attributes—marketers target both adults and kids through diverse claims
                                                                                                                                                                      • Ocean Spray Cranergy—humor, heritage, and function
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Ocean Spray Cranergy, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nestlé Juicy Juice Brain Development—touches upon emotions of moms
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Nestlé Juicy Juice Brain Development, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Mott’s—old juice but new celebrity face
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Mott’s Apple Juice, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • New product ads impress in 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Trop50—Kyra Sedgwick is the face for Tropicana’s new launch
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Tropicana Trop50, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Sunny D Smoothie—strikes a chord with parents on nutritional profile
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Sunny D Smoothies, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Fruit2day—a whole new way to eat fruit
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Fruit2day Fruit Juice, television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • IRI/Builders Panel Data: Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                                • Refrigerated juices: key household purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Overview of refrigerated juices
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Refrigerated orange juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated orange juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated orange juice, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Refrigerated fruit drinks: Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated fruit drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated fruit drink, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Refrigerated blended fruit juices
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—refrigerated blended fruit juices
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Shelf-stable bottled juices—key household purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Overview of SS bottled juices
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Shelf-stable bottled fruit drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled fruit drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled juices, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • SS bottled cranberry cocktail/juice drink—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail juice/drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail juice/drink, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Shelf-stable bottled apple juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled apple juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled apple juice, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Shelf-stable canned juices/drinks—key household purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Overview of SS canned juices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Shelf-stable canned juice drinks: consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Brand map, selected brands of SS canned juice drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS canned juice drinks, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Shelf-stable canned fruit juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Brand map, selected brands of SS canned fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS canned fruit juice, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • American Beverage Association, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • American Medical Association (AMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Citrus World Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Coca-Cola Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Juice Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • National Soft Drink Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ocean Spray Cranberries, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Procter & Gamble USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sunny Delight Beverages Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tropicana Products Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wegmans Food Markets, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wm. Bolthouse Farms Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks: The Market - US - February 2010

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