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Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks - UK - November 2011

“The ‘convenient health’ positioning is currently a strong place to be strategically and the pure juice market should take greater advantage of it. This means widening its usage beyond being drunk at home or over breakfast to for example: the workplace; on-the-go occasions (ie the morning commute); adult lunchboxes; healthy energy boosting office beverages; and/or an alternative to alcoholic drinks within pubs/bars.”

– Jonny Forsyth, Senior Drinks Analyst

Some key questions covered in the report include:

  • Can brands break own-label’s market stranglehold?
  • With many consumers having traded down, is there still a future for the chilled pure juice segment?
  • What will be the impact of rising costs along the supply chain?
  • Is the market too reliant on the in-home drinking occasions rather than capitalising on other opportunities?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
                • Figure 1: Total market size and forecast for value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
              • Market factors
                • Figure 2: Trends in annual inflation per quarter (measured in RPI) for soft drinks compared to all items, 2009 Q1-2011 Q2
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Figure 3: Value sales of top brands within the fruit juice and juice drinks take-home market, 2010
              • The consumer
                • Figure 4: Attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, August 2011
              • What we think
              • Issues in the Market

                  • Can brands break own-label’s market stranglehold?
                    • With many consumers having traded down, is there still a future for the chilled pure juice segment?
                      • What will be the impact of rising costs along the supply chain?
                        • Is the market too reliant on the in-home drinking occasions rather than capitalising on other opportunities?
                        • Future Opportunities

                            • Snack society
                              • Cool vending
                              • Internal Market Environment

                                • Key points
                                  • Inflation a real problem for the sector…
                                    • Figure 5: Trends in global commodity prices for oranges, Sep 01-Sep 11
                                  • … leading to recent exponential price increases
                                    • Figure 6: Trends in annual inflation per quarter (measured in RPI) for soft drinks compared to all items, 2009 Q1-2011 Q2
                                  • 2011 sees tightening of consumers’ grocery spend
                                    • Figure 7: Percentage point change in attitudes towards leading a healthy lifestyle, July 2009-July 2011
                                    • Figure 8: GFK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, July 2009-September 2011
                                  • Price of pure juices and juice drinks – put in context
                                    • Figure 9: A comparison of price-point per pack size for a range of fruit juice and juice drink brands compared to market leaders in other soft drink categories, September 2011
                                  • The economic downturn has not spelt the end for health concerns
                                    • Figure 10: Percentage point change in attitudes towards leading a healthy lifestyle, January 2009-August 2011
                                  • Busier lifestyles means a desire for convenient health
                                    • Looking beyond seasonality
                                      • Figure 11: Household spend on fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks, by quarter, 2006 Q1-2011 Q1
                                  • Broader Market Environment

                                    • Key points
                                      • Real incomes are being increasingly squeezed
                                        • Figure 12: Year-on-year % change in average weekly earnings compared to inflation in the UK, January 2008-August 2011
                                      • Ageing population puts health even higher on the agenda
                                          • Figure 13: Population trends and projections, 2006-16
                                        • Increase in ‘white collar’ workers makes office drinks a key opportunity
                                          • Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                      • Competitive Context

                                        • Key points
                                          • The decline in alcohol drinking opens up opportunities
                                            • Figure 15: Sales of major UK drinks categories, 2006-10
                                          • Soft drink competition intensifies in the past five years
                                            • Figure 16: Penetration of UK soft drinks in the past 12 months, by sub-category, 2007-11
                                          • An improved performance over the past 12 months
                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                            • Strengths
                                              • Weaknesses
                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Orange and apple flavours dominate among new innovation
                                                    • Figure 17: Top five flavour components of new product launches within the UK Juice/juice drinks market, 2008-11*
                                                  • Investing in packaging that stands out in the crowded juice aisle
                                                    • A taste for the exotic
                                                      • More overtly healthy targeting
                                                        • Return of the cult classic…Um Bongo
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • The price of health proves too high
                                                              • Volume sales will struggle so long as the economy remains sluggish
                                                                • Figure 18: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
                                                                • Figure 19: Total market size and forecast for value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
                                                              • Pure fruit juice will see its volume sales decline by one tenth by 2016
                                                                • Figure 20: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of pure fruit juice, 2006-16
                                                                • Figure 21: Total market size and forecast for value sales of pure fruit juice, 2006-16
                                                              • Juice drinks’ lower price-point gives them a stimulus
                                                                • Figure 22: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of juice drinks, 2006-16
                                                                • Figure 23: Total market size and forecast for value sales of juice drinks, 2006-16
                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Fruit juice struggles within the take-home sector
                                                                    • Figure 24: Market size of volume and value sales of fruit juice, in take-home, 2006-10
                                                                    • Figure 25: Market size of volume and value sales of fruit juice, in on-premise, 2006-10
                                                                  • Juice drinks grow volume sales in take home by an impressive 9%
                                                                    • Figure 26: Market size of volume and value sales of juice drinks, in take-home, 2006-10
                                                                    • Figure 27: Market size of volume and value sales of juice drinks, in on-premise, 2006-10
                                                                • Market Share

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Tropicana builds on its significant market share
                                                                        • Figure 28: Value sales of top ten brands within the fruit juice and juice drinks take-home market, 2008-10
                                                                      • Juice drink brands get a stimulus as consumers trade down…
                                                                        • … however, own-label juice drinks prove the biggest winner
                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • PepsiCo
                                                                              • Coca-Cola Enterprise (CCE)
                                                                                • Britvic
                                                                                  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Pure fruit juices become more important within on-premise channels
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Value sales for fruit juice, by major channels, 2008-10
                                                                                      • In contrast, multiples dramatically increase share of fruit juices market
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Value sales for juice drinks, by major channels, 2008-10
                                                                                    • Brand Research

                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
                                                                                        • Brand attitudes
                                                                                          • Figure 32: Attitudes by fruit juice and juice drinks brand, August 2011
                                                                                        • Brand personality
                                                                                          • Figure 33: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand personality – macro image, August 2011
                                                                                          • Figure 34: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand personality – micro image, August 2011
                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                          • Brand experience
                                                                                            • Figure 35: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand usage, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 36: Satisfaction with various fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 37: Consideration of fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current fruit juice and juice drinks brand performance, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 39: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, August 2011
                                                                                          • Brand index
                                                                                            • Figure 40: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand index, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 41: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand index vs. recommendation, August 2011
                                                                                          • Target group analysis
                                                                                            • Figure 42: Target groups, August 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 43: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand usage, by target groups, August 2011
                                                                                          • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                            • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                              • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                  • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Entry of smaller brands increases overall ad spend
                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks*, 2008/09-2010/11
                                                                                                      • Tropicana and Oasis go head to head
                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks*, by brand, for the total period between August 2008 and July 2011
                                                                                                      • Tropicana shifts focus onto journey from source to table
                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks, by brand*, 2008/09-2010/11
                                                                                                    • Consumer Usage

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Pure juice taps into desire for everyday healthy lifestyles
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
                                                                                                          • Usage of all juices drops off as people reach 45+
                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Index of penetration of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by key demographics, by product, August 2011
                                                                                                            • Fruit juice drinks score highly for everyday usage
                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Index of everyday usage of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by key demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                              • Three in five fruit juice and juice drink users have used all three juice types in the past six months
                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Crossover in usage of long-life pure fruit juice, fresh chilled pure fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
                                                                                                                • Solus fresh pure juice drinkers skew heavily towards the 55+
                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Drinkers of solus fresh/chilled fruit juice drinkers, by key demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                              • Venues Where Consumers Drink Juice/Juice Drinks

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • An impressive 95% of drinkers do so at home…
                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, August 2011
                                                                                                                    • … but opportunities are being missed in the on-trade
                                                                                                                      • From kids to adults lunchboxes?
                                                                                                                        • On-the-go opportunities under-utilised for juices
                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, by which type they drink, August 2011
                                                                                                                        • Consumer Attitudes to Pure Fruit Juice

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • A winning combination of refreshment plus healthy convenience
                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, August 2011
                                                                                                                              • Pure juices have less health appeal to younger consumers, compared to smoothies
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Net difference in attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, over-45s compared to 16-44-year-olds, August 2011
                                                                                                                                • The more cynical younger generation requires more health proof…
                                                                                                                                  • … and are more vulnerable to leaving the category
                                                                                                                                    • Families are much more positive about the health benefits of pure juice
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Net attitudinal difference in attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, those with kids in their households compared to those without, August 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Consumer Attitudes to Concentrated Fruit Juice Drinks

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Juice drinks struggle to carve out their own niche
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, August 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Greater opportunities among women
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Net differences in attitudes to fruit juice drinks, women compared to men, August 2011
                                                                                                                                        • The popularity of lunchboxes
                                                                                                                                          • The alternative to alcohol
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Consumption of non-alcoholic drinks, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Brand usage, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Brand commitment, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Brand momentum, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Brand diversity, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Brand satisfaction, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Brand recommendation, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Brand attitude, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Brand image – macro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Brand image – micro image, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Profile of target groups, by demographic, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Brand usage, by target group, August 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Brand index
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Brand index, August 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Consumption of fresh/chilled fruit juice with no added water, in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Consumption of long-life fruit juice with no added water in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Consumption of concentrated fruit juice drinks (ie when water is added to at least 2% fruit content) in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Venues Where Consumers Drink Juice/Juice Drinks

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Venues where people drink 100% fresh/chilled fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Most popular venues where people drink 100% long-life fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Next most popular venues where people drink 100% long-life fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Most popular venues where people drink concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Next most popular venues where people drink concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to Pure Fruit Juice

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Attitudes towards 100% fruit juice, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Attitudes towards 100% fruit juice, by consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by drinkers of different juice types, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Most popular attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Next most popular attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Other attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to Concentrated Fruit Juice Drinks

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Most popular attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Next most popular attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011

                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                          • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                          • Channel 4
                                                                                                                                          • Coca-Cola Enterprises Ltd
                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                          • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
                                                                                                                                          • National Trust (Enterprises) Ltd
                                                                                                                                          • Ocean Spray Cranberries, Inc
                                                                                                                                          • Pepsi-Cola UK
                                                                                                                                          • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                          • Princes Foods
                                                                                                                                          • Reebok International Ltd
                                                                                                                                          • Tropicana UK
                                                                                                                                          • UKTV

                                                                                                                                          Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks - UK - November 2011

                                                                                                                                          £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)