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Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - UK - November 2016

“Concerns around sugar continue to plague the category. While fruit juice is struggling under this pressure, the launch of no added or low sugar products and varieties claiming functional benefits appear to be helping fruit juice and smoothies. Unease around artificial sweeteners however, remains a concern.”

– Alyson Parkes, Research Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • High demand for transparency on sugar and sweeteners
  • Supporting portion control can help keep juice on the menu
  • High openness to smoothies as a meal replacement

 

Fruit juice looks likely to continue to suffer from sugar scrutiny, contributing to the forecasted volume decline over 2016-21. Price rises on the back of import inflation will prop up value sales but may dampen volumes further. Juice drinks have maintained volume growth despite the focus on sugar with a number of low/no/reduced sugar launches, which should help to grow the segment. Meanwhile, smoothies’ return to growth, thanks to NPD and marketing focused on health, could continue with NPD around new usage occasions.

The fact that four fifths of consumers drink fruit juice, juice drink or smoothies, is evidence of their lasting appeal. Nonetheless, steps to improve their nutritional credentials are needed to help restore consumer faith in the market. Meanwhile, drinks heavily reliant upon imported ingredients will find it hard to escape rising import prices, these potentially curbing usage.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Market loses a tenth of its volume over 2011-16, price rises prop up value
              • Value increase forecast for the market over 2016-21
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by value, 2011-21
              • Fall in sales of fruit juice continues
                • Continued growth expected for juice drinks
                  • Smoothie section sees growth, premium variants gain visibility
                    • Sugar concerns are a key driver for change for fruit juice and juice drinks
                      • Weakening Pound pushing up import prices, rise in incomes to end
                        • Companies and brands
                          • Copella and Naked Juice buck the downward trend in fruit juice
                            • Ribena returns to growth while main competitors lose sales in juice drinks
                              • Innocent retains lead in smoothies
                                • Low sugar claims rise in NPD in 2015
                                  • New launches look to smaller portions and vegetables
                                    • Adspend raised as sugar gains attention
                                      • Figure 2: New product launches in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothie market with no additives/preservatives and low/no/reduced sugar claims, 2012-16
                                    • Ads focus on leading brands’ health credentials
                                      • Tropicana enjoys a high quality image, Innocent excels on innovation
                                        • The consumer
                                          • High usage signals enduring appeal of fruit juice, juice drink and smoothies
                                            • Figure 3: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies usage, September 2016
                                          • Cold-pressed and reduced sugar varieties still niche
                                            • Figure 4: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, September 2016
                                          • Demand for clearer labelling of sugar and artificial sweeteners
                                            • Figure 5: Attitudes towards fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2016
                                          • Half see smaller servings as offering nutrients without too much sugar
                                            • Figure 6: Interest in selected fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies enticements, September 2016
                                          • All-British ingredients appeal to one in three, high protein to one in four
                                            • Chilled fruit juice leads on taste and refreshment
                                              • Figure 7: Qualities associated with fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, Correspondence Analysis, September 2016
                                            • What we think
                                            • Issues and Insights

                                              • High demand for transparency on sugar and sweeteners
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Supporting portion control can help keep juice on the menu
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                          • High openness to smoothies as a meal replacement
                                                            • The facts
                                                              • The implications
                                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Market loses a tenth of its volume over 2011-16; price rises prop up value
                                                                  • Value increase forecast for the market over 2016-21
                                                                    • Fall in sales of fruit juice continues
                                                                      • Continued growth expected for juice drinks
                                                                        • Smoothie section sees growth, premium variants gain visibility
                                                                          • Sugar concerns are a key driver for change for fruit juice and juice drinks
                                                                            • Weakening Pound pushing up import prices, rise in real incomes to end
                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                              • Market loses a tenth of its volume over 2011-16; price rises prop up value
                                                                                • Figure 8: UK value and volume sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2011-21
                                                                              • Value increase forecast for the market over 2016-21
                                                                                  • Figure 9: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                  • Figure 10: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                  • The impact of the EU referendum vote
                                                                                    • Methodology
                                                                                      • Trajectory of spend in previous slowdowns
                                                                                        • Figure 11: Alternative market scenarios for the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                                                                        • Figure 12: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                                                                      • Little immediate reaction among consumers
                                                                                        • Consumers are already shopping savvy
                                                                                        • Market Segmentation

                                                                                          • Fall in sales of fruit juice continues
                                                                                            • Figure 13: UK value and volume sales fruit juice, 2011-21
                                                                                            • Figure 14: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                          • Continued growth expected for juice drinks
                                                                                            • Figure 15: Forecast of UK sales of juice drinks, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                            • Figure 16: Forecast of UK sales of juice drinks, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                          • Smoothie segment sees growth, premium variants gain visibility
                                                                                            • Figure 17: UK value and volume sales of smoothies, 2011-21
                                                                                            • Figure 18: Forecast of UK sales of smoothies, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                                                          • Sugar is a key driver for change in the juice drinks industry
                                                                                            • Sugar tax
                                                                                              • Consumer confusion about sugar
                                                                                                • Freshly made could pose a threat to the smoothie market
                                                                                                  • Brexit – falling value of the Pound pushing up import prices
                                                                                                    • Rise in real consumer incomes expected to end
                                                                                                      • Rise in the number of children could provide a boost
                                                                                                        • Ageing population could add further pressure to the category
                                                                                                        • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                          • Copella and Naked Juice buck the downward trend in fruit juice
                                                                                                            • Ribena returns to growth while main competitors lose sales in juice drinks
                                                                                                              • Innocent retains lead in smoothies
                                                                                                                • Low sugar claims rise in NPD in 2015
                                                                                                                  • New launches look to smaller portions and vegetables
                                                                                                                    • Adspend raised as sugar gains attention
                                                                                                                      • Ads focus on leading brands’ health credentials
                                                                                                                        • Tropicana enjoys a high quality image, Innocent excels on innovation
                                                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                                                          • Copella and Naked Juice buck the downward trend in fruit juice
                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: UK retail sales of leading brands in the fruit juice market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                          • Ribena returns to growth while main competitors lose sales in juice drinks
                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: UK retail sales of leading brands in the juice drinks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                            • Innocent still dominates smoothies, but niche brands gain foothold
                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: UK retail sales of leading brands in the smoothie market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                          • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                            • New product launches set to continue
                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: New product launches in the UK soft drinks market, by category, 2012-16
                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: New product launches in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by leading companies (sorted by 2016), 2012-16
                                                                                                                            • Clearer labelling for Innocent
                                                                                                                              • Waitrose launches premium own-brand
                                                                                                                                • Low sugar claims rise in 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: New product launches in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothie market with no additives/preservatives and low/no/reduced sugar claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                • Tesco cuts sugar across the board
                                                                                                                                  • Princes launch no added sugar refresher range
                                                                                                                                    • Companies look to smaller portions
                                                                                                                                      • Tesco shrinks smoothie portions
                                                                                                                                        • Tropicana Little Glass campaign leads to Little Bottles
                                                                                                                                          • Ribena launches Minis range
                                                                                                                                            • Consumers encouraged to drink “roots” and greens
                                                                                                                                              • Functional smoothies from Naked Juice hit the market
                                                                                                                                                • Coldpress hope ‘new generation’ juices will appeal to the health-conscious
                                                                                                                                                  • Roots Collective launch ‘Blends’ into the UK market
                                                                                                                                                    • Watermelon juice aims to be the ‘new coconut water’
                                                                                                                                                    • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                      • Advertisers increase spending in wake of sugar attention
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                      • PepsiCo leads spend on Tropicana range
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top five brands, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top five brands, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                      • Ribena pushes Light variant with pop-up “Colouring Café”
                                                                                                                                                        • Britvic used innovative advertising for limited edition J2O
                                                                                                                                                          • Innocent focuses on Super Smoothies
                                                                                                                                                            • Fruit Shoot focuses on sugar-free credentials
                                                                                                                                                              • Coca-Cola spends big on Capri-Sun
                                                                                                                                                                • Vita Coco encouraging people to stay hydrated
                                                                                                                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                      • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand attitudes: Ribena is the most trusted brand with a good reputation
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Attitudes, by brand, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand personality: Innocent considered to be the most ethical brand
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Brand personality – macro image, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Tropicana is strong on delicious flavour but falls short on being creative
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Brand personality – micro image, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                                          • Tropicana widely seen to offer consistently high quality
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: User profile of Tropicana, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Innocent has a lead in perceptions of vibrancy and creativeness
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: User profile of Innocent, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Ribena has the best reputation with a strong traditional image
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: User profile of Ribena, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Vita Coco enjoys a strong image as unique
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: User profile of Vita Coco, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Oasis chases Vita Coco on cool stakes despite lacking in excitement
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: User profile of Oasis, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Capri-Sun considered tired and boring compared to rivals
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: User profile of Capri-Sun, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Robinsons Fruit Shoot is seen widely as fun
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: User profile of Robinsons Fruit Shoot, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                          • High usage signals enduring appeal of fruit juice, juice drink and smoothies
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cold-pressed and reduced sugar varieties still niche
                                                                                                                                                                              • Demand for clearer labelling of sugar and artificial sweeteners
                                                                                                                                                                                • Half see smaller servings as offering nutrients without too much sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                  • All-British ingredients appeal to one in three, high protein to one in four
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Chilled fruit juice leads on taste and refreshment
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Usage of Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Drunk by nearly three quarters; fruit juice is the most popular segment
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Over half drink juice drinks despite sugar concerns
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Infrequent usage of smoothies presents a challenge to the market
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Frequency of drinking fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fruit juice from concentrate continues to be the most popular format
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cold-pressed varieties drunk by a minority
                                                                                                                                                                                          • A fifth drink reduced sugar juice drinks
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Around a quarter have drunk freshly made juice or smoothies
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Freshly made by consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Freshly made in front of customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Usage of drinking fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies freshly made by or in front of consumers, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Fruit Juices, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Demand for clearer labelling of sugar and artificial sweeteners
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Attitudes towards fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Half see smaller servings offering the nutrients without the sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Functional juices and smoothies could be a selling point
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: New product launches in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market carrying a functional health claim, November 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Smoothies would appeal as a meal replacement to parents of under-18s
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies – CHAID – Tree output, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Fruit Juice, Juice Drink and Smoothie Enticements

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • All-British ingredients spark the most interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Interest in selected fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies enticements, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Focus on ‘wonky’ fruit and veg could support the category
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • High protein additions could appeal to fruit juice and smoothie drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Perception of Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Chilled fruit juice is deemed the tastiest and most refreshing drink
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Qualities associated with fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, Correspondence Analysis, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Qualities associated with fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ambient fruit juice seen as good value for money
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Vegetable blend chilled juice most nutritious
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Juice drinks seen to be processed and high in sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Coconut water perceived to be the most boring
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK fruit juice market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK fruit juice market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK juice drinks market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK juice drinks market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Forecast of UK sales of juice drinks, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK smoothies market. by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK smoothies market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Forecast of UK sales of smoothies, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the fruit juice drinks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the juice drinks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the smoothie market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: New product launches in the Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies Market, by Top 10 Claims (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top five advertisers, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top five advertisers, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Interest in trying fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies containing different ingredients, by Types of drinks drunk in the last three months, September 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix - CHAID analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies – CHAID – Table output, September 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - UK - November 2016

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