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Fruit - US - August 2015

"The fruit market has experienced fairly steady growth since 2010, and Mintel expects much of the same through 2020. Like the vegetables market, fruit’s performance has been bolstered by fresh fruit , and hurt by shelf-stable segments. The frozen fruit segment may be small but it has maintained rapid growth and generally favorable consumer perception. Buying fruit for snacking purposes is commonplace, but consumers, especially Millennials and parents, are increasingly seeking fruit in convenient formats outside this market’s core segments (bars, snacks, drinks)."
- Amy Kraushaar, Category Manager - Food, Drink and Foodservice

This report discusses the following key issues:

  • Shelf-stable fruit segments aren’t pulling weight
  • Brand leaders aren’t helping matters in respective shelf-stable subsegments
  • Fruit’s snack-able appeal isn’t grabbing parents and Millennials

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definitions
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Shelf-stable fruit segments aren’t pulling weight
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, 2010-15
            • Figure 2: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Brand leaders aren’t helping matters in respective shelf-stable subsegments
            • Figure 3: Leading brand performance vs. total sales, by subsegment, 2014-15*
          • Fruit’s snack-able appeal isn’t grabbing parents and Millennials
            • Figure 4: Fruit for snacking behavior, by generation and presence of children, June 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Parents and Millennials see benefits of nonfresh options
              • Figure 5: Fruit purchases, Millennials and parents vs. all respondents, June 2015
            • Specialization and provenance increasingly relevant, especially to parents
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward fruit’s provenance, June 2015
            • Frozen fruit’s positive image can be exploited further
              • Figure 7: Average response rate for fruit’s top five favorable characteristics, by fruit type, June 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Fruit market sees steady growth
                • Fresh trend on full display in this market
                  • Organics losing share in some outlets
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Fruit market tops $47 billion
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Fresh fruit dominates; shelf-stable segments lag; frozen fruit leaps
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of fruit, by segment sales share percentage, 2015
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Organics not keeping pace in natural and other supermarkets
                        • Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of packaged fruit, by segment, rolling 52 weeks May 2013-May 2015
                    • Market Factors

                      • Millennials figure prominently in fruit market
                        • Figure 13: Population share percentage, by generation, 2010, 2015, 2020
                      • Fruit prices fluctuate modestly but supply challenges lie ahead
                        • Figure 14: Changes in food price indexes, fruits and vegetables, 2011-15*
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Leading companies performing worse than store and other brands
                        • Shelf-stable segments losing steam, no thanks to leading brands
                          • Frozen fruit a bright spot, but brand identity challenged
                          • Manufacturer Sales of Fruit

                            • Dole and Del Monte hold onto a third of fruit market
                              • Manufacturer sales of fruit
                                • Figure 15: MULO sales of fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Frozen fruit’s solid growth helps sustain entire fruit market
                                • Specialization and provenance increasingly relevant
                                  • Store brands central to parts of the fruit business but growth a mixed bag
                                      • Figure 16: Private label versus name brand launches, fruit and fruit snacks, 2013-15*
                                    • Fruit brands occasionally on point with nutritional messaging
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Dried fruit’s solid image can’t stop sales lag
                                        • Figure 17: Sun-Maid and Ocean Spray sales for select items in MULO, 2014-15*
                                      • Leading canned/jarred fruit types and brands face declines
                                        • Figure 18: Dole and Del Monte sales for select items in MULO, 2014-15*
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Healthy snack trend will indirectly bolster canned/jarred fruit market
                                        • Dried fruit brands further exploit snacking angle as well
                                          • Provenance to play increasingly prominent marketing role
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • Millennial engagement with fruit surpasses vegetables
                                              • Fresh and frozen options most appealing for many shoppers
                                                • Shelf-stable fruit’s image marred by processing and sugar
                                                • Fruit Purchases by Type

                                                  • For Millennials convenience is the name of the game
                                                      • Figure 19: Fruit purchases, Millennials vs. all respondents, June 2015
                                                  • Household Fruit Consumption

                                                    • Shelf-stable fruit consumption on the rise but among fewer households
                                                      • Figure 20: Household usage and purchasing – Canned, jarred, or packaged fruit*, February 2010-March 2015
                                                  • Favorable Characteristics

                                                    • Fresh and frozen options most appealing for many shoppers
                                                        • Figure 21: Correspondence analysis – Favorable characteristics by fruit type, June 2015
                                                    • Negative Characteristics

                                                      • Fresh fruit’s issues lie in the fine print
                                                          • Figure 22: Correspondence analysis – Negative characteristics by fruit type, June 2015
                                                      • Purchase and Consumption Behavior

                                                        • Fruit’s snack-ability is its biggest asset
                                                          • More on fruit snacking
                                                            • Figure 23: Purchase and consumption behavior, June 2015
                                                        • Attitudes toward Fruit

                                                          • Core fruit consumers crave the real deal
                                                            • Figure 24: Attitudes toward fruit, June 2015
                                                          • Parents and Millennials see benefits of nonfresh options
                                                              • Figure 25: Additional attitudes toward fruit, June 2015
                                                          • Nutritional Information Gathering

                                                            • Men, Millennials, and parents seek out Internet and word of mouth
                                                              • Figure 26: Nutritional info gathering, by select demographics, June 2015
                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast methodology
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Correspondence map methodology
                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                      • Appendix – Market

                                                                        • Market sales and forecast
                                                                          • Figure 27: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                        • Retail channel sales of packaged fruit
                                                                          • Figure 28: Total US retail sales of packaged fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                          • Figure 29: Total US retail sales of packaged fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                                        • Macroeconomic factors
                                                                          • Figure 30: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2011-May 2015*
                                                                          • Figure 31: Disposable personal income, January 2011-April 2015*
                                                                          • Figure 32: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2011-May 2015*
                                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                          • Figure 33: MULO sales of canned and jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                          • Figure 34: MULO sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                          • Figure 35: MULO sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                        • Experian Simmons
                                                                          • Figure 36: Household usage, by type/brand – Canned, jarred, or packaged fruit*, February 2010-March 2015

                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                      To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                      Fruit - US - August 2015

                                                                      US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)