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Fruit - US - July 2016

"Fruit sales in the US have surpassed the $48 billion mark, growing consistently for the past decade, aside from a slight slowdown in 2014-15 due to an increase in fresh fruit prices. Fruit’s overall healthy reputation and the consumer desire for fresher foods should propel fruit sales even higher through 2021. Jarred/canned options have underperformed during the period under review, but frozen fruit has benefitted strongly from assuring consumers that the freezing process preserves fruit’s taste, texture, and nutrients."

- William Roberts, Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Sales forecast to increase further through 2021
  • Cans/jars suffer from processed perception
  • Fruit consumption widespread, particularly fresh options

This Report covers the US market for fruit, which is defined as follows:

  • Fresh fruit – includes whole fruit (including random weight and packaged uniform weight) and fresh-cut packaged fruit
  • Canned/jarred fruit – shelf-stable jarred/canned fruit
  • Frozen fruit – bagged/boxed in the freezer section
  • Dried fruit – such as apricots, dates, prunes, and raisins

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales forecast to increase further through 2021
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Cans/jars suffer from processed perception
            • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Fruit consumption widespread, particularly fresh options
            • Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Fruit purchase, May 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Fruit capitalizing on healthy reputation
              • Figure 4: Opinions of health, April 2016
            • Frozen options serving as smoothie bases
              • Figure 5: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Fruit continues strong sales growth
                • Fresh dominates while frozen heats up
                  • Consumption levels suggest the category is approaching maturity
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Fruit market nears $50 billion mark
                      • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Fresh dominates fruit sales; other segments combine for single-digit market share
                      • Figure 8: Sales of fruit, in millions, by segment, 2016 (est.)
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Fresh fruit demonstrating consistent growth
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Supermarkets maintain lion’s share of fruit sales; other channels emerging
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                  • Market Factors

                    • Fruit consumption could offset obesity
                      • Figure 12: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
                    • Children falling short in fruit consumption
                        • Figure 13: Population of kids aged 6-11 and 12-17, by race or Hispanic origin, in thousands, 2010-20
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Opportunity to capitalize on fruit as a snack
                        • Private label comprises sizable share of fruit market
                          • Key potential for variety of fruit as smoothie bases
                          • Company Sales of Fruit

                            • Dole, Del Monte maintain brand positions, while consumers increasingly turn to private label
                              • Brand sales of fruit
                                • Figure 14: MULO sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Frozen options capitalize on quick-frozen’s attributes
                                • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
                              • Smaller, private label brands leverage local perception
                                • Figure 16: Branded versus private label fruit introductions in North America, 2011-15
                                • Figure 17: Frozen fruit launches
                              • Frozen options serving as smoothie bases
                                • Figure 18: Smoothie-base fruit launches
                                • Figure 19: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
                              • Fruit launches leveraging vitamin advantages
                                • Figure 20: Bard Valley natural delights
                                • Figure 21: Jasper Wyman & Son Frozen Triple Berry Blend
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Cans/jars suffer from processed perception
                                • Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
                                • Figure 23: Storage format of North American fruit introductions, 2011-16
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Packaging innovation could leverage snacking, sustainable attributes
                                • Figure 24: Top claims for North American fruit introductions 2012-15
                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                              • Widespread fruit consumption
                                • Millennials consume diversity of fruit
                                  • Fresh capitalizing on positive health perception
                                    • Fresh fruit benefits from a perception of being local
                                      • Longer shelf-life appeals even to fresh fruit consumers
                                        • Communicating fruit’s nutritional information
                                        • Fruit Purchase

                                          • Fruit consumption widespread, particularly fresh options
                                            • Figure 25: Fruit purchase, April 2016
                                            • Figure 26: Fruit (berries) purchase, April 2016
                                            • Figure 27: Fruit (melon, tropical fruit) purchase, April 2016
                                            • Figure 28: Correspondence analysis – Fruit purchase, May 2016
                                          • Potential to grow fruit could stem from reaching parents
                                            • Figure 29: Fresh fruit purchase, by generations, April 2016
                                          • Parents more likely to turn to dried fruit
                                            • Figure 30: Dried fruit purchase, by parental status with children in household, April 2016
                                          • Jarred fruit resonates more strongly with Hispanic consumers
                                            • Figure 31: Jarred fruit purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                        • Purchase of Other Fruit

                                          • Just under half of consumers eat avocado
                                            • Figure 32: Purchase of other fruit, April 2016
                                          • Millennials consume diversity of fruit types
                                            • Figure 33: Purchase of other fruit, by generation, April 2016
                                          • Hispanics much more likely to consume a diversity of fruit
                                            • Figure 34: Purchase of other fruit, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                        • Attributes Describing Fruit Formats

                                          • Potential for frozen, dried options
                                            • Figure 35: Fruit’s positive attributes, April 2016
                                            • Figure 36: Fruit’s negative attributes, April 2016
                                            • Figure 37: Correspondence analysis – Fruit attributes, May 2016
                                          • Prepackaged forms face generally negative regard
                                            • Figure 38: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by generations, April 2016
                                          • Parents appreciate prepackaged’s positives
                                            • Figure 39: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by parental status by gender with children in household, April 2016
                                          • Prepackaged fruit’s potential for Hispanic consumers
                                            • Figure 40: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                        • Opinions of Health and Fruit

                                          • Fruit capitalizing on healthy reputation
                                            • Figure 41: Opinions of health, April 2016
                                          • Local freshness resonates particularly with Boomers and older consumers
                                            • Figure 42: Opinions of health, by generation, April 2016
                                          • Parents embracing organic
                                            • Figure 43: Opinions of health, by parental status by gender with children in household, April 2016
                                          • Organic claims and fruit purchasers
                                            • Figure 44: Opinions of health/natural, by fruit purchase format, April 2016
                                          • Hispanic consumers turning to fruit out of healthy expectations
                                            • Figure 45: Opinions of health, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                        • Shopping for Fruit

                                          • Potential for fruit’s snack positioning
                                            • Figure 46: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, April 2016
                                          • Sweet potential to grow fruit among younger consumers
                                            • Figure 47: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by generation, April 2016
                                            • Figure 48: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by generation, April 2016
                                          • Opportunity for fruit as a snack among parents of young children
                                            • Figure 49: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by presence of children in household, April 2016
                                          • Hispanics could embrace new fruit juice possibilities
                                            • Figure 50: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                        • Information Source for Fruit

                                          • Consumers largely turn to new media for fruit information
                                            • Figure 51: Information source, April 2016
                                          • New media to reach younger consumers, older consumers appear uninterested in fruit’s nutritional details
                                            • Figure 52: Information source, by generation, April 2016
                                          • Hispanics more likely to seek fruit’s nutritional information
                                            • Figure 53: Information source, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                          • New media could expand jar/can appreciation
                                            • Figure 54: Information source, by fruit purchase format, April 2016
                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                          • Data sources
                                            • Sales data
                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                        • Figure 55: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                        • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                        • Figure 62: US supermarket sales of fruit, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                        • Figure 63: US sales of fruit through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                        • Figure 64: MULO sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                        • Figure 65: MULO sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                        • Figure 66: MULO sales of canned and jarred fruit by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                    • Correspondence Analysis – Methodology

                                                        • Figure 67: Fruit purchase, May 2016
                                                        • Figure 68: Fruit attributes, May 2016

                                                    Companies Covered

                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                    Fruit - US - July 2016

                                                    £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)