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Gluten-free Foods - US - January 2012

The retail gluten-free food market has grown to an estimated $6.1 billion in 2011. While this figure includes all food labeled gluten free (including products that are inherently gluten free such as scallops or tomato sauce), sales of gluten-free food products that are alternatives to gluten-containing, grain-based products (e.g. salty snacks, cookies, and bread) have grown dramatically, and importantly are the focus of this report. Ultimately, the market’s growth is even more impressive considering that much of it came about during a poor economy.

This relatively new and vibrant market offers significant opportunities for food companies. In this report, the first of its kind offered by Mintel, key topics include:

  • Factors driving the sales of gluten-free food, including the improved taste of products, consumer perception that gluten-free food is better for you (BFY) than traditional food, trendiness, and interest in natural and organic food and beverages
  • Which segments have performed best during 2009-11, and who the key players are that are driving this growth
  • Market opportunities, such as consumers’ desire for more types of gluten-free products, as well as threats including the market’s potential fad factor and possible health concerns
  • Consumer attitudes toward gluten-free food, including a focus on key demographics such as gender, age, household income, and race/Hispanic origin
  • How gluten avoiders search for information/support (e.g. doctors, friends, internet, books), and how marketers can capitalize on this
  • Suggested brand platforms that are likely to appeal to demographics who buy gluten-free food
  • How price does and does not affect the sale of gluten-free products, and opportunities for private label manufacturers

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • An appetite for gluten-free food
                      • Key category opportunity: underdiagnosis and growing numbers of sufferers
                        • Key category opportunity: a taste for more products
                          • Key category threat: the fad factor
                            • Segment snapshot and brand leaders
                              • Retail channel snapshot
                                • Gluten intolerance and consumption of gluten-free food
                                  • Purchase drivers at company/brand/product level
                                    • Resources used and communication among avoiders
                                    • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Still hungry for more
                                        • Pump you up…
                                          • …and slim you down
                                            • Other opportunities for the gluten-free category
                                            • Inspire Insights

                                                • Trend 1: Mood to Order
                                                  • Trend 2: Premiumization and Indulgence
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • A healthy market with room for growth
                                                        • Sales and forecast of gluten-free food and beverages
                                                          • Figure 1: Total sales of gluten-free food and beverages, at current prices, 2009-13
                                                          • Figure 2: Total sales of gluten-free food and beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-13
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Figure 3: Fan chart forecast of gluten-free food, 2009-13
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Gluten-free is officially in
                                                            • Other trends helping category sales
                                                              • More (and better-tasting) choices help category sales
                                                                • Figure 4: Changes in food price indexes, 2009 through 2012
                                                              • The spectrum of gluten-related ailments
                                                                • Celiac disease on the rise
                                                                  • The real but mysterious problem of gluten intolerance
                                                                    • Wheat allergies affect a minority
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • A “gluten-fraud” market?
                                                                          • The possible dangers of a gluten-free diet
                                                                            • What happens when the fad factor dies out?
                                                                              • Falling victim to its own success
                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • A brief explanation
                                                                                    • Key segment: gluten-free chips, pretzels, and snacks
                                                                                      • Figure 5: Sales of gluten-free chips, pretzels, and snacks compared to grain-based chips, pretzels, and snacks, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Key segment: gluten-free cold cereal
                                                                                      • Figure 6: Sales of gluten-free cold cereal compared to grain-based cold cereal, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Key segment: gluten-free frozen lunch and dinner entrées
                                                                                      • Figure 7: Sales of gluten-free frozen lunch and dinner entrées compared to grain-based frozen lunch and dinner entrées, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Key segment: gluten-free bread and baked goods
                                                                                      • Figure 8: Sales of gluten-free bread and baked goods compared to grain-based bread, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Sales of gluten-free food and beverages
                                                                                      • Figure 9: Total sales of gluten-free food and beverages, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Snapshot of segment growth by channel
                                                                                      • Segment performance by channel
                                                                                        • Figure 10: FDMx sales of gluten-free food and beverages, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                      • Natural and specialty supermarkets
                                                                                        • Figure 11: Natural and specialty supermarket sales of gluten-free food and beverages, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Leading Companies

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • General Mills is a leader
                                                                                          • Consumers go crackers for Blue Diamond
                                                                                            • Hankering for Amy’s
                                                                                              • Figure 12: Leading gluten-free food and beverage companies, 2010-11
                                                                                          • Segment and Brand Performance—Chips, Pretzels, and Snacks

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • A taste for gluten-free chips, pretzels, and snacks
                                                                                                • Other leading brands
                                                                                                  • Figure 13: Selected brand sales of gluten-free chips, pretzels, and snacks, 2010-11
                                                                                              • Segment and Brand Performance—Cold Cereal

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • General Mills’ Chex dominates
                                                                                                    • Other successful gluten-free cereal brands
                                                                                                      • Figure 14: Selected brand sales of gluten-free cold cereal, 2010-11
                                                                                                  • Segment and Brand Performance—Frozen Lunch and Dinner Entrées

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Cooking up success at Amy’s Kitchen
                                                                                                        • Other gluten-free frozen lunch and dinner entrées
                                                                                                          • Figure 15: Selected brand sales of gluten-free frozen lunch and dinner entrées, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Segment and Brand Performance—Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Rising sales for bread and baked goods
                                                                                                            • Udi’s Gluten Free Foods cooks up success
                                                                                                              • Other leading companies
                                                                                                                • Figure 16: Selected brand sales of gluten-free bread and baked goods, 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Retail Channels

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • FDMx accounts for 80%+ of sales
                                                                                                                  • Figure 17: Total sales of gluten-free food and beverages, by channel, 2009 and 2011
                                                                                                                • Supermarkets launch gluten-free labeling initiatives
                                                                                                                    • Figure 18: FDMx sales of gluten-free food and beverages, at current prices, 2009-11
                                                                                                                  • Natural and specialty food retailers cooking up gluten-free food onsite
                                                                                                                      • Figure 19: Natural and specialty food retailers’ sales of gluten-free food and beverages, at current prices, 2009-11
                                                                                                                  • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Annual number of new products more than doubles since 2007
                                                                                                                        • Figure 20: Gluten-free food product launches, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Snacks had most product launches since 2007
                                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Gluten-free food product launches, by category, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Kosher, no additives/preservatives, and all-natural were top claims
                                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Gluten-free food product launches, by top claims, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Grocery chains launch most new products
                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: Gluten-free food product launches, by top companies, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Branded introductions outpace private label
                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Gluten-free chips
                                                                                                                        • Gluten-free bread
                                                                                                                          • Gluten-free cold cereal
                                                                                                                            • Gluten-free frozen entrées
                                                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                              • Overview
                                                                                                                                • Glutino is about trustworthiness
                                                                                                                                  • Udi’s Gluten Free Foods “shares the joy”
                                                                                                                                    • Home cooking with Pamela’s Products
                                                                                                                                      • Kinnikinnick Foods
                                                                                                                                        • Other interesting initiatives
                                                                                                                                        • Health and Gluten-free Food Usage

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Younger adults (25-44s) more likely to use gluten-free food
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Health and gluten-free food usage, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Household income does not affect purchase of gluten-free food
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Health and gluten-free food usage, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Asians more likely to say they are gluten intolerant/sensitive
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Health and gluten-free food usage, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Gluten-free Food Usage and Usage Frequency

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • A minority always consumes gluten-free products
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Gluten-free food usage and usage frequency, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Men consume more gluten-free products than women
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Gluten-free food usage and usage frequency, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • 18-44s more likely to consume all types of gluten-free food
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Gluten-free food usage and usage frequency, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • $50K+s consume gluten-free more often
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Gluten-free food usage and usage frequency, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Gluten-free Brand Usage

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Betty Crocker Gluten Free, Amy’s Kitchen, and Nature’s Path Organic purchased most often
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Gluten-free brand usage, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Age affects brands purchased
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Gluten-free brand usage, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • $50K+ purchase greater variety of brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Gluten-free brand usage, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Outlets Where Consumers Buy Gluten-free Products

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • 18-44s shop at a greater number of outlets
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Outlets where consumers buy gluten-free products, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Gluten-free shopping aligns with general food shopping patterns
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Outlets where consumers buy gluten-free products, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                          • More educated shop at natural food stores, farmers’ markets, and more
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Outlets where consumers buy gluten-free products, by education, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes toward Gluten-free Food

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Men like taste; women like nutrition
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Attitudes toward gluten-free food, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                • 45+s have more favorable opinions
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Attitudes toward gluten-free food, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                • More affluent want more products
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Attitudes toward gluten-free food, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Purchase Drivers at Company/Brand/Product Level

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Men want prominent gluten-free labeling
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Purchase drivers at the company/brand/product level, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • $50K+ want third-party labels and more
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Purchase drivers at the company/brand/product level, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • More affluent want third-party certification
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Purchase drivers at the company/brand/product level, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                • Resources Used and Communication among Avoiders

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Women go online; men read cookbooks
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Resources used and communication among celiacs and the gluten-sensitive, by gender, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    • 18-44s use a diverse range of resources
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Resources used and communication among celiacs and the gluten-sensitive, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    • More affluent use more resources
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Resources used and communication among celiacs and the gluten-sensitive, by household income, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Gluten intolerance and eating out more often at all types of restaurants
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2008-Q3 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Gluten intolerance and dining out frequency
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Restaurant usage by health and gluten-free food usage, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Gluten intolerance and planned spend at restaurants
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Restaurant usage change, by health and gluten-free food usage, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Other Useful Tables

                                                                                                                                                                              • Market data
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Population, by age, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Population, by generation, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer data
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Gluten-free food usage and usage frequency, by urban area, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Gluten-free brand usage, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Gluten-free brand usage, by education, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Outlets where consumers buy gluten-free products, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Outlets where consumers buy gluten-free products, by urban area, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Attitudes toward gluten-free food, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Resources used and communication among celiacs and the gluten-sensitive, by education, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                              • Amy's Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Applegate Farms
                                                                                                                                                                              • B&G Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Blue Diamond Growers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cape Cod Potato Chip Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                              • Carl Buddig & Company
                                                                                                                                                                              • Diamond Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Dr Schar UK
                                                                                                                                                                              • Ener-G Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Giant Eagle
                                                                                                                                                                              • Groupe Danone
                                                                                                                                                                              • Hormel
                                                                                                                                                                              • Kinnikinnick Foods
                                                                                                                                                                              • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Lundberg Family Farms
                                                                                                                                                                              • R.C. Bigelow Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Rudi's Organic Bakery, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Snyder's of Hanover
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Utz Quality Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Whole Foods Market Inc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Wm. Bolthouse Farms Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                              Gluten-free Foods - US - January 2012

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