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Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2013

“The gluten-free food category will continue to grow as an increasing number of manufacturers develop better-tasting and more nutritious gluten-free foods. Category appeal beyond those with celiac disease, coupled with a new FDA ruling for gluten-free product labeling, suggests the category will grow out of its marker as just another diet trend.”

– Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • Are concerns about gluten just a passing fad?
  • How can gluten-free products continue to broaden their appeal?
  • How will the FDA gluten-free ruling impact the category?

 

The $10.5-billion gluten-free food and beverage industry has grown 44% from 2011-13 as the rate of celiac disease diagnoses and awareness of, and interest in, gluten-free foods increase. Some 24% of consumers currently eat, or have someone in their household who eats, gluten-free foods. Perceptions of gluten-free foods have moved from being bland, boring substitutes for gluten-containing products to everyday items that appeal to those with and without a gluten allergy. Three quarters (75%) of consumers who do not have celiac disease or sensitivity to gluten eat these foods because they believe they are healthier, despite the lack of any scientific research confirming the validity of this theory.

This health halo will continue to propel the category over the next few years, especially as an increasing number of companies join the gluten-free category, producing higher-quality foods and beverages that have a broad appeal. August 2013 FDA regulation on gluten-free product claims will now set the industry standard and make it easier for consumers to shop for their gluten-free lifestyle. Mintel predicts the gluten-free food and beverage market will grow 48% from 2013-16, to $15.6 billion, at current prices.

Mintel here provides a comprehensive analysis of the following factors that have the greatest potential to impact the category’s performance:

  • How the market is broadening and how future growth will hinge on increased awareness of gluten intolerance, celiac disease diagnosis, and foodservice offerings
  • How different gluten-free product segments have been performing in recent years, and how new product innovation (including foodservice) are impacting sales trends for the category as a whole and in each of its segments
  •  Challenges to the market and how manufacturers and retailers can position products to confront them Which brands are gaining, which are losing, and why within the market
  • Current product positioning (including TV ads, online and digital promotional efforts) and what marketing strategies make the most sense given the various target audiences that manufacturers are trying to connect with to maximize sales opportunities
  • The attitudes and behaviors of gluten-free consumers, including purchase decision criteria, product preferences and more

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                      • The market
                        • Gluten-free food and beverage sales to reach $15.6 billion in 2016
                          • Figure 1: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods and beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
                        • Strong growth in bread products
                          • Figure 2: Retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13 (Top 5)
                        • Market factors
                          • Rising incidence of intolerance and health perceptions fuel category growth
                            • Figure 3: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
                          • Key players
                            • Chobani, General Mills, and Kraft only one quarter of sales
                              • Figure 4: Gluten-free product market share, by Top 5 companies, 52 weeks ending June 8, 2013
                            • The consumer
                              • Nearly one quarter using gluten-free foods
                                • Figure 5: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2013
                              • Gluten-free bread products, snacks, most consumed
                                • Figure 6: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
                              • Women more concerned about gluten-free labeling
                                • Figure 7: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                  • Are concerns about gluten just a passing fad?
                                    • Insight – The demand for gluten-free products is here to stay
                                      • How can gluten-free products continue to broaden their appeal?
                                        • Insight – Target non-celiacs based on their preference for healthy eating
                                          • How will the FDA gluten-free ruling impact the category?
                                            • Insight – Labeling standards will lead to increased trust, easier shopping experience
                                            • Trend Applications

                                                • Trend: Prove It
                                                  • Trend: Factory Fear
                                                    • Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
                                                        • Figure 8: find me gluten free website
                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Consistent growth in gluten-free food and beverage sales
                                                          • Sales and forecast of market
                                                            • Figure 9: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                            • Figure 10: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-16
                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                              • Figure 11: Total Market sales, forecast, gluten-free foods, beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Rising celiac disease incidence
                                                                • Greater competition and broader appeal
                                                                  • Figure 12: Number of companies with gluten-free product claims, July 2009-July 2013
                                                                • Perception of gluten-free foods as healthier
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Gluten-free restaurant options continue to grow
                                                                    • Figure 13: Top 5 restaurant menu claims, 2010-13
                                                                    • Figure 14: Gluten-free ingredient claims by restaurant segments, 2010-13
                                                                    • Figure 15: Carrabba’s Gluten Free Menu
                                                                    • Figure 16: Jason’s Deli Gluten-Sensitive Menu
                                                                  • The cross-contamination risk may not be worth it
                                                                    • Figure 17: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Steady growth across segments
                                                                      • Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by segment
                                                                        • Figure 18: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                      • Beverages
                                                                        • Figure 19: Crispin Cider, television ad, 2012
                                                                      • Sales of beverages
                                                                        • Figure 20: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free beverages, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                      • Dairy and dairy alternatives
                                                                        • Sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
                                                                          • Figure 21: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free dairy/dairy alternatives, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                        • Prepared foods
                                                                          • Sales of prepared foods
                                                                            • Figure 22: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free prepared foods, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                          • Bread products, cookies, and snacks
                                                                            • Sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
                                                                              • Figure 23: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free bread products/cookies/snacks, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                          • Retail Channels

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Traditional, natural stores most popular
                                                                                • Figure 24: Gluten-free food retail channels, by gender, June 2013
                                                                                • Figure 25: Gluten-free food retail channels, by region, June 2013
                                                                              • Most growth in natural channel
                                                                                • Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by channel
                                                                                  • Figure 26: Sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                              • Leading Companies

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Chobani, General Mills, major brands in category
                                                                                    • Largest growth for PepsiCo, smallest for Danone, Kraft
                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                    • Brand Share – Beverages

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Juices, smoothies, and mixes lead beverage sales
                                                                                          • Consumers go nuts for almond milk
                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of beverages
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free beverages, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                                                                                          • Brand Share – Dairy and Dairy Alternatives

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • The Greek appeal
                                                                                                • Kefir gaining traction
                                                                                                  • Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                • Brand Share – Prepared Foods

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Amy’s Kitchen maintains its lead
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of prepared foods
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Manufacturer sales of prepared foods, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                    • Brand Share – Bread Products, Cookies, and Snacks

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Chips are hip
                                                                                                          • Gluten-free specific brands represent smaller share
                                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks, 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                          • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                            • Growth in private label
                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Gluten-free food products, July 2009 - July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Top 10 Gluten-Free companies, by new products, January 2012- July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, July 2009 -July 2013
                                                                                                            • Label overload
                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Michelob Ultra Light Cider Print Ad
                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Gluten-free product penetration by category, January 2009–July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Top 5 gluten-free food product categories, January 2012-July 2013
                                                                                                            • Repackaging or reformulating with gluten-free claim
                                                                                                              • Pizza on the rise
                                                                                                                • Baking up gluten-free mixes
                                                                                                                  • The healthy connection
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Top 10 gluten-free food product claims, January 2012 - July 2013
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Better’n Peanut Butter Print Ad
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Kellogg’s Rice Krispies Print Ad
                                                                                                                • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                  • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                    • Brand analysis – Chex (General Mills)
                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Brand analysis of chex, 2013
                                                                                                                    • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Chex website, 2013
                                                                                                                    • TV presence
                                                                                                                      • Print and other
                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis – Betty Crocker (General Mills)
                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Brand analysis of Betty Crocker, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Betty Crocker website, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Live Better America website, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: GlutenFreely Tweet, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis – Glutino
                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Brand analysis of Glutino, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Glutino website, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Glutino Tweet, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Glutino Facebook Post, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Glutino blog, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Print and other
                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Glutino macaroni & cheese, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis – Amy’s Kitchen
                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Brand analysis of brand, 2011
                                                                                                                        • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Brand website, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Amy’s Kitchen Twitter Post, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis – Bob’s Red Mill
                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Brand analysis of bob’s red mill, 2013
                                                                                                                        • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Bob’s red mill website, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Bob’s red mill blog, 2013
                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Brand Tweet, 2013
                                                                                                                      • Gluten-Free Food Usage

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Millennials lead in consumption
                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by age, June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by gender and age, June 2013
                                                                                                                          • Bread- and grain-based foods most popular
                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
                                                                                                                        • Purchase Habits and Motivations

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • No diagnosis needed
                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by region, June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Gluten-free’s health halo
                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                            • In-store assistance most influential on purchase
                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
                                                                                                                          • Attitudes toward Gluten-Free Foods

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Women more concerned about product labeling
                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
                                                                                                                              • Celiac sufferers more trusting of product claims, outside regulation
                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Non-whites more likely to be eating gluten-free foods
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
                                                                                                                                • Blacks more likely to eat gluten-free without celiac disease diagnosis
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Gluten-free foods consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by race, June 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Diet & Health opinions, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                • Blacks prefer Walmart for gluten-free items
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Gluten-free food retail channels, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
                                                                                                                              • Consumer Segmentation

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Gluten-free clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Group one – Wheat Wary
                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                          • Group two – Gluten-free Skeptics
                                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                  • Group three – Gluten-free Apathetic
                                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: Gluten-free foods consumed, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Gluten-free food retail channels, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster demographic tables
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Target clusters, by demographic, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                          • Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                          • Food cost pressures
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                          • Obesity
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 95: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Racial, ethnic population growth
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 97: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Shifting U.S. demographics
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by generations, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 104: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 105: Gluten-free foods consumed, by gluten-free food retail channels, June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 106: Reasons for watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 107: Reasons for watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 108: Reasons for watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 109: Reasons for watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 110: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 111: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 112: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 113: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 114: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 115: Health & Medicine opinions, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 116: Diet & Health opinions, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                              To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                              Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2013

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