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Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2014

“Overall, the gluten-free food market continues to thrive off those who must maintain a gluten-free diet for medical reasons, as well as those who perceive gluten-free foods to be healthier or more natural. The category will continue to grow in the near term, especially as FDA regulations make it easier for consumers to purchase gluten-free products and trust the manufacturers who make them. Despite strong growth over the last few years, there is still innovation opportunity, especially in food segments that typically contain gluten.”
- Amanda Topper, Food Analyst
This report answers the following questions:

  • Will the category continue to grow rapidly?
  • What impact will the FDA definition of gluten-free have on the category?
  • What are the current perceptions of gluten-free foods?
Health halo, celiac disease, wide appeal all contribute to category growth.

Increasing incidence and awareness of celiac disease and non-celiac gluten sensitivity continue to drive the category, especially as their only treatment currently is a gluten-avoidance diet.
Not only are individuals with an allergy or sensitivity to gluten affected, so are their family or household members who often adopt a gluten-free diet for ease and to limit cross-contamination.
 
Gluten-free category is highly fragmented.

The gluten-free food category is made up of many smaller brands; 58% of the category is represented by brands within the Other category of smaller brands, which increased 92% in overall sales from 2013-14.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Consumer qualitative research
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Overview
                      • The market
                        • Sales forecast to reach $14.2 billion in 2017
                          • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
                        • Strong growth across all major segments
                          • Figure 2: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
                        • Market factors
                          • Health halo, celiac disease, wide appeal all contribute to category growth
                            • Figure 3: Companies with gluten-free food products as a share of all companies with food products, 2010-14*
                          • Key players
                            • Gluten-free category is highly fragmented
                              • Figure 4: * Sales of gluten-free products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014
                            • Retail channels
                              • Conventional channels preferred
                                • Figure 5: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by retail channel, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                              • The consumer
                                • Nearly one quarter of adults currently eat gluten-free versions of foods
                                  • Figure 6: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
                                • Health is a main driver for consumption
                                  • Figure 7: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, top 10, June 2014
                                • Opportunity to make gluten-free products more accessible
                                  • Figure 8: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, top five, June 2014
                                • Less than half of US adults trust gluten-free product claims
                                  • Figure 9: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, top five, June 2014
                                • What we think
                                • Issues and Insights

                                    • Will the category continue to grow rapidly?
                                      • Issues
                                        • Insight: Growth will continue for the near future
                                          • What impact will the FDA definition of gluten-free have on the category?
                                            • Issues
                                              • Insight: Proper labeling should increase trust
                                                • What are the current perceptions of gluten-free foods?
                                                  • Issues
                                                    • Insight: Positive perceptions, but still room for innovation
                                                    • Trend Applications

                                                        • Trend: Mood to Order
                                                          • Trend: Guiding Choice
                                                            • Trend: Non-standard Society
                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Sales and forecast of gluten-free foods
                                                                  • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of gluten-free foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-17
                                                                  • Figure 12: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                • Gluten-free market continues solid growth
                                                                  • Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Increasing awareness of celiac disease and gluten sensitivity
                                                                      • The health halo
                                                                        • Figure 14: Reason for watching your diet, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                        • Figure 15: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by age, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                      • Mass appeal and innovation growth
                                                                        • Figure 16: Companies with gluten-free food product launches as a share of all companies with food product launches, as per Mintel GNPD, 2010-14*
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Gluten-free foodservice options continue to expand
                                                                          • Figure 17: Gluten-free menu item claims, by restaurant segment, Q2 2011-Q2 2014
                                                                          • Figure 18: Gluten-free restaurant penetration, by restaurant segment, Q2 2011-Q2 2014
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Strongest growth among snacks, energy bar segments
                                                                            • Sales of gluten-free foods, by segment
                                                                              • Figure 19: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                              • Figure 20: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                            • Bread products and cereals
                                                                              • Sales of bread products and cereals
                                                                                • Figure 21: Sales* of total and gluten-free bread products and cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                              • Condiments, seasonings, and spreads
                                                                                • Sales of condiments, seasonings, and spreads
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Sales* of total and gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                • Desserts
                                                                                  • Sales of desserts
                                                                                    • Figure 23: Sales* of total and gluten-free desserts, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                  • Energy bars
                                                                                    • Sales of energy bars
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Sales* of total and gluten-free energy bars, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                    • Meat/meat alternatives
                                                                                      • Sales of meat/meat alternatives
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Sales* of total and gluten-free meat/meat alternatives, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                      • Pasta and rice
                                                                                        • Sales of pasta and rice
                                                                                          • Figure 26: Sales* of total and gluten-free pasta and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                        • Prepared foods
                                                                                          • Sales of prepared foods
                                                                                            • Figure 27: Sales* of total and gluten-free prepared foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                          • Snacks
                                                                                            • Sales of snacks
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Sales* of total and gluten-free snacks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                          • Retail Channels

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Greater product variety helps expand retail availability
                                                                                                • Sales of gluten-free food, by channel
                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by retail channel, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                                • Most food is non-organic, non-certified
                                                                                                  • Sales of gluten-free food, by organic content
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                                  • Sales of gluten-free food, by certified share and segment
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Sales* of certified gluten-free foods as a share of total gluten-free sales, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
                                                                                                • Leading Companies and Brand Analysis

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Gluten-free food category highly fragmented
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: KIND Deliveries
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods
                                                                                                        • Figure 33: * Sales of gluten-free products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                      • General Mills increases its market share 20%
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of bread products and cereals
                                                                                                          • Figure 34: * Sales of gluten-free bread products and cereals at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                        • Dips, dressings represent most of segment
                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of condiments, seasonings, and spreads
                                                                                                            • Figure 35: * Sales of gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                          • Nearly half of dessert segment made up of small brands
                                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of desserts
                                                                                                              • Figure 36: * Sales of gluten-free desserts at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                            • Nearly all gluten-free energy bar brands increase sales
                                                                                                              • Manufacturer sales of energy bars
                                                                                                                • Figure 37: * Sales of gluten-free energy bars at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                              • Hormel represents nearly one third of the segment
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of meat/meat alternatives
                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: * Sales of gluten-free meat/meat alternatives at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                • One third of pasta and rice segment from smaller brands
                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Gluten Free Rotini with a Charred Green Onion Pesto, Toasted Cashews, and Cranberries
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of pasta and rice
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: * Sales of gluten-free pasta and rice at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                • Boulder Brands experiences 100%+ growth in prepared foods
                                                                                                                  • Manufacturer sales of prepared foods
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: * Sales of gluten-free prepared foods at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                  • PepsiCo represents more than 40% of the gluten-free snacks segment
                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of snacks
                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: * Sales of gluten-free snacks at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                  • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                    • Gluten-free food category highly fragmented
                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Gluten-free food product penetration, 2010-14*
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 companies, 2013-14*
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, 2010-14*
                                                                                                                    • Many leading categories are naturally gluten-free
                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 categories, 2013-14*
                                                                                                                    • Multiple product claims appear with gluten-free
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 claims, 2013-14*
                                                                                                                    • New varieties most common
                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Gluten-free food product launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
                                                                                                                    • Social Media – Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                        • Key findings
                                                                                                                          • Market overview
                                                                                                                            • Key social media metrics
                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Key social media metrics, September 2014
                                                                                                                            • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Brand usage and awareness for select gluten-free food brands, July 2014
                                                                                                                            • Interactions with gluten-free food brands
                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Interactions with select gluten-free food brands, July 2014
                                                                                                                            • Leading online campaigns
                                                                                                                              • Increasing brand awareness
                                                                                                                                • Shareable content
                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                    • Online conversations
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by week, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Where are people talking about gluten-free products?
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by page type, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                    • What are people talking about?
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Topics of conversation around select gluten-free product brands, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Consumption of Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Year-over-year consumption increases
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Consumption skews toward Millennials
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Younger women most interested in trying gluten-free foods
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Reasons for Eating Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Most gluten-free food eaters have not been diagnosed with celiac disease
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Health is other main driver for eating gluten-free foods
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2014
                                                                                                                                      • More Gluten-free Foods Needed

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • More gluten-free bread, pasta, pizza options needed
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: More gluten-free foods needed, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Satisfaction with Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Satisfaction with gluten-free foods very high
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Satisfaction with gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Satisfaction with gluten-free foods, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Consumers least satisfied with the cost of gluten-free foods
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Satisfaction with gluten-free food attributes, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Satisfaction with gluten-free food attributes, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Behaviors Related to Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity to make gluten-free products more accessible
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes Toward Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Regulating the gluten-free label
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, June 2013 and June 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • The fad factor
                                                                                                                                                      • Quality, value on the rise
                                                                                                                                                      • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics most likely to eat gluten-free foods
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 69: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Satisfaction with select gluten-free food attributes, by Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: More gluten-free foods needed, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Social Media – Gluten-free Foods

                                                                                                                                                          • Brand usage or awareness
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Brand usage or awareness, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Udi’s Gluten Free usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Glutino usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Enjoy Life Foods usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Bob’s Red Mill usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Chex usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Activities done, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 95: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 96: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 97: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 98: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 100: Chex – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 101: Chex – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 102: Chex – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 103: Chex – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Key social media metrics
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 104: Key social media metrics for select gluten-free product brands, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 105: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by week, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 106: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by page type, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 107: Topics of conversation around select gluten-free product brands, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Segments and Sub-segments

                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                            • Abbott Laboratories
                                                                                                                                                            • Amy's Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Annie's Homegrown Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Applegate Farms
                                                                                                                                                            • Azteca Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • B&G Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Blue Diamond Growers
                                                                                                                                                            • Bob's Red Mill Natural Foods
                                                                                                                                                            • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                            • Clif Bar Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Diamond Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Frito-Lay, Inc
                                                                                                                                                            • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                            • Hershey Company, The
                                                                                                                                                            • Hormel
                                                                                                                                                            • Jennie-O Turkey Store, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Jones Dairy Farm
                                                                                                                                                            • Just Born Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Kitchen Basics Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Litehouse Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Lundberg Family Farms
                                                                                                                                                            • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                            • McCormick & Company, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Michael Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Nature's Path Foods Inc
                                                                                                                                                            • New World Pasta Company
                                                                                                                                                            • Pacific Foods
                                                                                                                                                            • Pepperidge Farm Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                                            • Pinnacle Foods Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • QUINOA CORPORATION
                                                                                                                                                            • Riviana Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Rudi's Organic Bakery, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Smashburger Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                            • T. Marzetti Company
                                                                                                                                                            • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                            • Tinkyada
                                                                                                                                                            • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                            • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                            • Whole Foods Market Inc

                                                                                                                                                            Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2014

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