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Grains and Rice - US - April 2016

"The $2.5-billion rice and grains category is experiencing modest growth thanks in part to a generally healthy image and consumer interest in exploring an increasingly wide range of cuisines incorporating rice or grain."

John Owen, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Modest pace of growth continues
  • Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
  • Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

  • Dry packaged rice, including white rice, brown rice, and other varieties
  • Dry rice mixes with seasonings and other dry ingredients used to prepare specific dishes, such as rice pilaf, Spanish rice, and Cajun rice dishes, and ready-to-eat rice

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Modest pace of growth continues
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
            • Figure 2: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
          • Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
            • Figure 3: Health attributes associated with rice and grains, January 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Not just dinner: snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
              • Figure 4: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
            • Younger adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
              • Figure 5: Attitudes toward rice and grains, by age, January 2016
            • Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
              • Figure 6: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Modest pace of growth continues
                • Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
                  • Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
                    • Consumers cooking more frequently
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Modest pace of growth continues
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
                        • Figure 9: Share of rice and grains, by segment, 2013 and 2015
                      • Health perceptions and flavor exploration help drive dry rice sales
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Premium on convenience: Ready-to-serve rice outpaces mixes
                        • Figure 11: Share of rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by subsegment, 2010-15
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Solid growth in natural food channel
                        • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
                        • Figure 14: MULO sales of pasta, by segment, 2010-15
                      • Grains/rice could be threatened by recent Pasta NPD
                        • Health and nutrition
                          • Taste and texture
                          • Market Factors

                            • Consumers cooking more, enjoying it more
                              • Figure 15: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
                            • Core user groups growing
                              • Figure 16: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-14
                              • Figure 17: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
                              • Flavor variety and authenticity help smaller players
                                • Convenience drives sales for big brands
                                  • Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
                                  • Manufacturer Sales of Rice and Grains

                                    • Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
                                      • Private label a growing force in dry rice
                                        • Ample opportunity for smaller players as well
                                          • Manufacturer sales of rice andgrains
                                            • Figure 18: MULO sales of grains and rice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                        • What’s Working?

                                          • Flavor, variety, and authenticity
                                            • Figure 19: MULO sales of select specialty rice companies, 2010-15
                                          • Kikkoman Sales USA promotes rice for Asian cuisine
                                            • LT Foods’ Royal brand features rice varieties from different locations around the world
                                              • Lundberg Family Farms places emphasis on sustainable farming practices
                                                • Otis McAllister highlights rice varieties grown in their original regions
                                                  • Convenience
                                                    • Figure 20: MULO sales of select convenient rice products, 2010-15
                                                • What’s Struggling?

                                                  • Rice mixes
                                                  • What’s Next?

                                                    • Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
                                                      • Free-from an increasingly common theme in NPD, label communications
                                                        • Figure 21: Top claims for rice and instant rice, 2010-15
                                                      • An increasing emphasis on education and ideas
                                                        • Mixes and blends make super grains more accessible
                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
                                                            • As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
                                                              • Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
                                                                • Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
                                                                  • Among grains, and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
                                                                    • Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
                                                                    • Purchase of Rice and Grains

                                                                      • Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
                                                                        • Figure 22: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
                                                                      • Younger adults purchase wider array of rice and grain
                                                                        • Figure 23: Purchase of rice, by age, January 2016
                                                                        • Figure 24: Purchase of grain, by age, January 2016
                                                                      • Households with more kids use more rice and grain products
                                                                        • Figure 25: Purchase of rice, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
                                                                        • Figure 26: Purchase of grain, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
                                                                      • Hispanics more likely to purchase most rice and grain products
                                                                        • Figure 27: Purchase of rice (flavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                        • Figure 28: Purchase of rice (unflavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                        • Figure 29: Purchase of grain, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                    • CHAID Analysis – Grains Purchase

                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                        • Convincing consumers on texture and meal suitability is key
                                                                          • Figure 30: Grains purchase – CHAID – Tree output, January 2016
                                                                      • How and When Rice and Grains Are Consumed

                                                                        • As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
                                                                          • Figure 31: How and when rice and grains are consumed, January 2016
                                                                        • Not just dinner: Snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
                                                                          • Figure 32: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
                                                                      • Attributes Associated with Rice and Grains

                                                                        • Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
                                                                          • Figure 33: Attributes associated with rice and grains I, January 2016
                                                                        • Convenience and suitability are strong points for rice
                                                                          • Figure 34: Attributes associated with rice and grains II, January 2016
                                                                        • Correspondence analysis: Grains and rice attributes
                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                            • Figure 35: Correspondence analysis – Grains and rice attributes, January 2016
                                                                        • Attitudes toward Rice and Grains

                                                                          • Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
                                                                            • Figure 36: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
                                                                          • Young adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
                                                                            • Figure 37: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
                                                                        • Interest in Different Types of Grains

                                                                          • Awareness and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
                                                                            • Figure 38: Interest in different types of grains, January 2016
                                                                          • Young adults more likely to express interest in a wide variety of grains
                                                                            • Figure 39: Interest in different types of grains, have tried and would use again, by age, January 2016
                                                                        • Interest in Flavored Rice or Grain Mixes

                                                                          • Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
                                                                            • Figure 40: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                            • Sales data
                                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                      • Terms
                                                                                      • Appendix – Market

                                                                                          • Figure 41: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 12/1/13-11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of packaged rice, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 44: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 47: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of packaged grains/rice and dry grain/rice dishes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains labeled with an "ancient grains" claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of rice and grains, by presence of GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of non-GMO verified rice and grains, by segment, at current prices, 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                          • Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by Whole-Grain Council certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
                                                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                          • Figure 52: MULO sales of dry rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 53: MULO sales of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                      • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                        • CHAID data
                                                                                          • Figure 54: Grains and rice purchases – CHAID – Table output, January 2016

                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                      • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                      Grains and Rice - US - April 2016

                                                                                      £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)