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Holiday Planning and Booking Process - UK - November 2013

“Booking times have been getting increasingly shorter in recent years. This process has been accelerated by the economic downturn, subdued household income and the rising cost of living, as financial uncertainties have forced more consumers to adopt a wait and see approach. However, there is also a deeper trend at work, as savvy consumers have grown adept at shopping around online, comparing prices and hunting for last minute discounts and deals. Mobile Millennials – the next generation of travellers - tend to leave it particularly late.”

– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How significant is the rise of mobile internet use for the holiday planning and booking process?
  • Does the growth of fully protected dynamically packaged holidays sold by OTAs spell the end of the traditional package tour operator?
  • What is the future for online customer review?
  • Could the era of big data improve the holiday planning and booking process?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Bargain hunters
                • Figure 1: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2008-18
                • Figure 2: Value* forecast of overseas holidays, 2008-18
              • Domestic market still strong
                • Market factors
                  • Big ticket overseas travel hit hard
                    • But short-haul now doing better than long-haul
                      • Confidence growing but households still feel the squeeze
                        • Figure 3: GfK/NOP UK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-October 2013
                      • Rise of the mobile internet
                        • Figure 4: Home internet access and mobile internet access among UK adults, Q1 2008-Q1 2013
                      • Companies, brands and innovation
                        • OTA challenge mounts
                          • Figure 5: Top 10 UK travel companies ranked by ATOL passenger licences, September 2013
                        • Omni-channel world
                          • Video review
                            • The consumer
                              • Foreign city break rise
                                • Figure 6: Overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                              • A third book in the last month
                                • Figure 7: Time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                              • Customer review used as much as company websites
                                • Figure 8: Online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                              • Four in ten use personal contacts for information
                                • Figure 9: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                              • Four in ten independent bookers use an OTA
                                • Figure 10: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, September 2013
                              • Six in ten package bookers go via trade
                                • Figure 11: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, September 2013
                              • Late bookers the most likely to use mobile
                                • Itching for a change
                                  • Figure 12: Attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, September 2013
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • How significant is the rise of mobile internet use for the holiday planning and booking process?
                                      • Does the growth of fully protected dynamically packaged holidays sold by OTAs spell the end of the traditional package tour operator?
                                        • What is the future for online customer review?
                                          • Could the era of big data improve the holiday planning and booking process?
                                          • Trend Application

                                              • Trend: Prove It
                                                • Trend: Return to the Experts
                                                  • Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Holiday spend down £5.6 billion since 2008 in real terms
                                                        • Figure 13: UK consumer expenditure, 2008-12
                                                      • Short-haul outperforming long-haul
                                                        • Figure 14: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2008-12
                                                      • Spanish revival continues
                                                        • Figure 15: Top 20 holiday destinations, 2008-12
                                                      • Rate of failure slowing down
                                                        • Figure 16: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 12 months ending 31 October 2013
                                                      • Green shoots of recovery but households remain squeezed
                                                        • Figure 17: UK GDP growth, Q1 2008-Q3 2013
                                                      • Confidence levels at highest for six years
                                                        • Figure 18: GfK/NOP UK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-October 2013
                                                      • Pound still an obstacle to overseas travel recovery
                                                        • Figure 19: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling, 2008-13
                                                      • Mobile internet reaches half of adults
                                                        • Figure 20: Home internet access and mobile internet access among UK adults, Q1 2008-Q1 2013
                                                      • Tablet ownership doubles in a year
                                                        • Figure 21: Demographic profile, UK adult smartphone and tablet owners, 2013
                                                      • Mobile Millennials
                                                        • Superfast web and 4G to drive video consumption
                                                          • TUI blazes video trail
                                                            • Figure 22: Viewing figures for company YouTube channels as at 22 Oct 2013
                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Big two embrace digital platforms
                                                              • Virtual reps
                                                                • High-Tech, High-Touch
                                                                  • Giving the hard smell
                                                                    • Video reviews
                                                                      • Pay by instalments
                                                                        • Muslim meta-search
                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Summer overseas bookings up despite heatwave
                                                                              • Figure 23: Overseas holiday volume, value and average expenditure, 2008-12
                                                                            • Domestic holidays recover after slow first half of year
                                                                              • Figure 24: Domestic (GB) holiday volume, value and average expenditure, 2008-12
                                                                            • Overseas volumes highest since 2009…
                                                                              • Figure 25: Domestic and overseas holiday volume, 2008-18
                                                                            • … but overseas spend still down 11% on 2008
                                                                              • Figure 26: Domestic and overseas holiday expenditure, 2008-18
                                                                            • Package share proves resilient
                                                                              • Figure 27: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2008-13
                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                              • Figure 28: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2008-18
                                                                              • Figure 29: Value* forecast of domestic holidays, 2008-18
                                                                              • Figure 30: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2008-18
                                                                              • Figure 31: Value* forecast of overseas holidays, 2008-18
                                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • OTA challenge mounting
                                                                                  • Figure 32: Top 50 UK travel companies ranked by ATOL passenger licences, September 2011-13
                                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                      • Figure 33: Expedia.com Limited, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                    • Jet2holidays
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Jet2holidays Limited, key financials, 2012-13
                                                                                      • Lastminute.com
                                                                                          • Figure 35: Last Minute Network Ltd, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                        • On The Beach
                                                                                            • Figure 36: On the Beach Limited, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                          • Skyscanner
                                                                                              • Figure 37: Skyscanner Ltd, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                            • Thomas Cook Group
                                                                                                • Figure 38: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland segment, key financials, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                              • Travel Republic
                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Travel Republic Limited, key financials, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                • Travelsupermarket.com
                                                                                                    • Figure 40: TravelSupermarket.com, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                                  • TripAdvisor
                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Key financials for TripAdvisor Ltd, 2011-12**
                                                                                                    • TUI Travel
                                                                                                        • Figure 42: TUI Travel plc – UK & Ireland market, key financials, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                    • Holidays Taken Abroad

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Short break resurgence
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                      • Booking Times for Holidays Abroad

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Booking times shortening
                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                          • Late, middle and early bookers
                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Percentage of holidaymakers booking last holiday abroad within one month of departure, by selected demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Percentage of holidaymakers booking last holiday abroad within one month of departure, by holiday type, September 2013
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Percentage of holidaymakers booking last holiday abroad 5+ months before departure, by gender and holiday type, September 2013
                                                                                                        • Online Holiday Research

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Company websites and peer-to-peer used equally
                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                            • Package bookers twice as likely to browse travel company websites
                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Online information sources used for holiday planning, independent versus package holidays, September 2013
                                                                                                            • Female photo browsers
                                                                                                              • Deal-oriented late bookers
                                                                                                                • Under-35s lead mobile research trend
                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Devices used for online holiday research, September 2013
                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Percentage of online researchers using a mobile device, by age, September 2013
                                                                                                                • Independent travel and short breaks most likely to be researched via mobile
                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Percentage of online researchers using a mobile device, by holiday type, September 2013
                                                                                                                • Late bookers research via mobile
                                                                                                                • Offline Holiday Research

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Personal connections still paramount
                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Selected offline information sources used for holiday planning, by holiday type, September 2013
                                                                                                                    • (Slight) long-haul advantage for high street
                                                                                                                      • Peer recommendation (offline & online) used most for independent research
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: All information sources (online and offline combined) used for planning independent holidays, September 2013
                                                                                                                      • Online trumps offline research for packages
                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: All information sources (online and offline combined) used for planning package holidays, September 2013
                                                                                                                    • Independent Holiday Booking Methods

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Four in ten use OTAs to book
                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, September 2013
                                                                                                                      • Package Holiday Booking Methods

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Trade accounts for six in ten package bookings
                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, September 2013
                                                                                                                          • High street lookers and bookers
                                                                                                                          • Devices Used for Online Holiday Booking

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Mobile booking lags research
                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Devices used for online holiday booking, September 2013
                                                                                                                              • Metropolitan Millennials are early adopters of mobile booking
                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Use of mobile devices for online holiday booking, by age, September 2013
                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Use of mobile devices for online holiday booking, by holiday type, September 2013
                                                                                                                            • Holiday Planning and Booking Attitudes

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Self-sufficient, adventurous travellers
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, September 2013
                                                                                                                                • Wisdom of crowds
                                                                                                                                  • Suspicion of company-speak
                                                                                                                                    • Paying for independent expertise
                                                                                                                                      • Independent and package attitudes
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by those who have taken independent versus package holidays, September 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Flexibility, personalisation, price seen as advantages of independent booking
                                                                                                                                        • Convenience and time-saving seen as advantages of package booking
                                                                                                                                          • Big data
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Forecasts for domestic holidays volume, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Forecasts for domestic holidays value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Forecasts for overseas holidays volume, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Forecasts for overseas holidays value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Holidays Taken Abroad

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: overseas holidays taken in the past five years, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: overseas holidays taken in the past five years, by demographics, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Other overseas holidays taken in the past five years, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Booking Times for Holidays Abroad

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Time before last holiday abroad was booked, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Time before last holiday abroad was booked, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013(continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Time before last holiday abroad was booked, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Online Holiday Research

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Online information sources used for holiday planning, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Online information sources used for holiday planning, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Online information sources used for holiday planning, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Next most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, by demographics, September°2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Devices used for online holiday research, by most popular overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Devices used for online holiday research, by next most popular overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Devices used for online holiday research, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September°2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Devices used for online holiday research, by most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Devices used for online holiday research, by next most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Devices used for online holiday research, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Offline Holiday Research

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by other overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Offline information sources used for holiday planning, by next most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Most popular offline information sources used for holiday planning, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Next most popular offline information sources used for holiday planning, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Independent Holiday Booking Methods

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by next most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Most popular methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Next most popular methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Package Holiday Booking Methods

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Methods used to book last package holiday abroad, by demographics, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Devices Used for Online Holiday Booking

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Devices used for online holiday booking, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Devices used for online holiday booking, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Devices used for online holiday booking, by other overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 112: Devices used for online holiday booking, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Devices used for online holiday booking, by devices used for online holiday research, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 114: Devices used for online holiday booking, by methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 115: Devices used for online holiday booking, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Holiday Planning and Booking Attitudes

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 116: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 117: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 118: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by other overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 119: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by other overseas holidays taken in the past five years, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 120: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by time before last holiday abroad was booked, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 121: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 122: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by next most popular online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 123: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by other online information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 124: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by most popular offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 125: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by next most popular offline information sources used for holiday planning, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 126: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 127: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by methods used to book last independent holiday abroad, September 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 128: Agreement with attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by methods used to book last package holiday abroad, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 129: Agreement with most popular attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 130: Agreement with next most popular attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by demographics, September 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 131: Agreement with other attitudes towards holiday planning and booking, by demographics, September 2013

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                                                                                                                                          Holiday Planning and Booking Process - UK - November 2013

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