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- Holiday Review - UK - January 2012
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“The ‘staycation’ trend has now been firmly in place for three years. And given both the one-off events occurring in 2012 that are likely to reduce holidays abroad and the continuation of a difficult economic environment, the UK break looks likely to maintain market dominance.”
– Tom Rees, Senior Travel and Tourism Analyst
Some questions answered in this report include:
What does 2012 mean for holidays – abroad and at home?
Will the likely fall in inflation provide a significant boost to holidays?
Is the staycation trend here to stay?
How can non-air transport modes take advantage of rising fight costs?
What do the ‘Arab Spring’ and the eurozone crisis mean for holidaymakers after 2011?
Introduction
Definition
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
The Market
Figure 1: Volume forecast of all holidays, 2006-16
Overseas and domestic holidays
Figure 2: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16
Figure 3: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
Market factors
One to three trips for most
Figure 4: Number of holidays booked (UK and overseas) by holidaymakers in the last 12 months, 2011
APD to rise
Figure 5: Air Passenger Duty, by band, economy seats, 2011 and 2012
Confidence concerns
Figure 6: Consumer sentiment for the coming year, October 2011
Older onwards
Figure 7: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-16
Exchange rate change
Figure 8: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, annual averages for 2011
Companies, brands and innovation
Big two continue dominance
Figure 9: Travel companies, by share of passengers licensed to top ten companies*, December 2011
Expedia heads online
Figure 10: Top 50 online travel brands, by total unique visitors, November 2011
Innovations
The consumer
Holiday taking
Figure 11: Holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Overseas holiday plans
Figure 12: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Attitudes towards holidays
Figure 13: Attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
Reaction to weaker finances
Figure 14: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, November 2011
What we think
Issues in the Market
What does 2012 mean for holidays – abroad and at home?
Will the likely fall in inflation provide a significant boost to holidays?
Is the staycation trend here to stay?
How can non-air transport modes take advantage of rising fight costs?
What do the ‘Arab Spring’ and the eurozone crisis mean for holidaymakers after 2011?
Future Opportunities
Switch Off
Let's Make a Deal
Internal Market Environment
Key points
One to three trips most likely
Figure 15: Number of holidays booked (UK and overseas) by holidaymakers in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Figure 16: Number of holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
‘About one month’ before
Figure 17: How far ahead bookings for holiday and short breaks were made, 2010 and 2011
Spend stays similar
Figure 18: Amount spent on holidays (five or more days) and short breaks (one to four days), 2010 and 2011
Flight costs on the rise
Figure 19: Air Passenger Duty, 2011 and 2012
Figure 20: Oil price per barrel, October 2009-October 2011
Petrol prices push up UK costs
Figure 21: Petrol and diesel price per litre, October 2009-October 2011
Cook survives, but collapses continue
Figure 22: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 2011
High street contraction
Legislative reform coming in 2012
Broader Market Environment
Key points
Consumers not confident
Figure 23: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, February 2009-October 2011
Figure 24: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-December 2011
Figure 25: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2006-Q3 2011
Older working
Figure 26: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
Figure 27: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
Online and on the move
Figure 28: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2006-11
Figure 29: Mobile phone features owned and used, 2011
Single surge still on
Figure 30: UK households, by size, 2006-16
Figure 31: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Euro woes may spell UK opportunity
Figure 32: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, 2007-12
Competitive Context
Key points
Overseas travel remains in the doldrums
Figure 33: Overseas travel volumes, by purpose, 2006-11
Domestic segment doing well
Figure 34: Domestic travel volumes, by purpose, 2006-11
Holidays’ priority falls
Figure 35: Trends in activities consumers have done and are considering doing, July-October 2011
Figure 36: Trends in what extra money is spent on, November 2009-October 2011
Who’s Innovating?
Key points
Accommodation – auctions and gardens
Cruise excursions and ‘Real Sunlight’
Fair trade first
Groupon and Jetsetter lead flash sector
More and more apps
New in the sky and on the seas
Thomson breaks with tradition
TripAdvisor responds
20.12%
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Staycations still here
Figure 37: Domestic and overseas holidays and expenditure, 2006-16
2011, average spend, and beyond
Figure 38: Average spend per holiday, domestic, overseas and overall, 2006-16
Forecast
Overall
Figure 39: Volume forecast of all holidays, 2006-16
Figure 40: Value forecast of all holidays, 2006-16*
Overseas
Figure 41: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16
Figure 42: Value forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16*
Domestic
Figure 43: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
Figure 44: Value forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
Key points
Six in ten are independent
Figure 45: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays abroad, by volume, 2006-11
Air up through absence of ash
Figure 46: Total overseas holidays, by mode of transport, 2006-11
Figure 47: Price and journey time comparison of air vs rail vs tunnel/car travel, travelling February 2012
Car use stays top in UK
Figure 48: Main mode of transport used, domestic holidays*, 2006-10
Unrest rebalances overseas holiday choices
Figure 49: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2006-11
Figure 50: Top 25 outbound destinations, by number of visits (all purposes), 2008-H1 2011
The long and the short of it
Figure 51: Overseas short break vs longer holidays, by volume, 2006-10
Figure 52: Domestic short break vs longer holidays, by volume, 2006-10
Market Share
Key points
Expedia takes top spot online
Figure 53: Top 50 online travel brands, by total unique visitors, November 2009-November 2011
‘Big Two’ continue to dominate
Figure 54: Overseas passengers licensed to UK travel companies, December 2011
Companies and Products
easyJet
Figure 55: easyJet Plc key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Eurostar/Eurotunnel
Figure 56: Eurostar International Ltd, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Figure 57: Eurostar International Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
Expedia
Figure 58: Expedia.com Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
InterContinental Hotel Group
Figure 59: InterContinental Hotel Group, EMEA segment key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Figure 60: InterContinental Hotel Group, EMEA segment key financials, 2009 and 2010
International Airlines Group
Figure 61: British Airways, key financials, 2009 and 2010
P&O Ferries
Figure 62: P&O Ferries Division Holdings Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
Ryanair
Figure 63: Ryanair Holdings Plc, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Figure 64: Ryanair Holdings Plc, key financials, 2010 and 2011
Thomas Cook
Figure 65: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK segment, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
TripAdvisor
Figure 66: TripAdvisor Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
TUI Travel
Figure 67: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Channels to Market
Key points
Online for info
Figure 68: Sources used to get information for all holidays and short breaks, 2010 and 2011
DIY dominates
Figure 69: How holidays were booked, 2010 and 2011
Holiday Taking
Key points
Non-holidaymaker rise
Figure 70: Holidays taken in last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Have money, have holidays
Away and UK
Not going away
Number of Holidays
Key points
Frequency falls
Figure 71: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Domestic determinants
Europe earners
Independents most likely to look beyond Europe
Figure 72: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 73: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 74: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Spend on Holidays
Key points
Watching the pennies
Figure 75: Domestic and overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Who spends what, where?
Budget Britain
Figure 76: Domestic holiday spending, by number of domestic holidays taken, November 2011
Outside Europe expense
Figure 77: Overseas holiday spending, by number of overseas holidays taken, November 2011
Holidays Abroad
Key points
Beach is best
Figure 78: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Family affairs
Who takes what?
Type and times
Figure 79: Type of overseas holiday taken, by number of overseas holidays taken, November 2011
Overseas Holiday Plans
Key points
Plans stay in place
Figure 80: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, 2010 and 2011
Forward planning
The no-goers
Plans vs spending
Figure 81: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by expenditure on overseas holidays in last 12 months, November 2011
Repeat business
Figure 82: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular type of holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 83: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular type of holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
What People Think of Holidays
Key points
Four in ten call holidays a luxury
Figure 84: Attitudes towards holidays, 2010 and 2011
Wealthiest see holidays as necessary
Staycations and Olympic impact
Planes, trains and automobiles
What do the planners think?
Figure 85: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 86: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 87: Attitudes towards holidays, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
What People Would Do If Their Financial Situation Worsened
Key points
Less go
Figure 88: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, 2010 and 2011
Fewer holidays, dropping breaks
Deal seeking
Staycation/closer overseas switching
What people think, what they would do
Figure 89: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
Figure 90: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
Figure 91: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
Overall
Figure 92: Volume forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Figure 93: Value forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16*
Overseas
Figure 94: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Figure 95: Value forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16*
Domestic
Figure 96: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Figure 97: Value forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Appendix – Holiday Taking
Figure 98: Most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 99: Next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 100: Other holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Number of Holidays
Figure 101: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Spend on Holidays
Figure 102: Domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 103: Most popular overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 104: Next most popular overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Holidays Abroad
Figure 105: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 106: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 107: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 108: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 109: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 110: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 111: Most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 112: Next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Overseas Holiday Plans
Figure 113: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 114: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 115: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 116: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 117: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 118: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 119: Most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 120: Next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 121: Other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – What People Think of Holidays
Figure 122: Attitudes towards holidays, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 123: Attitudes towards holidays, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 124: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 125: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 126: Attitudes towards holidays, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 127: Attitudes towards holidays, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 128: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 129: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 130: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 131: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 132: Most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 133: Next most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 134: Other attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – What People Would Do If Their Financial Situation Worsened
Figure 135: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 136: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 137: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 138: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 139: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 140: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 141: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 142: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
Figure 143: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 144: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Figure 145: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 146: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 147: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 148: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by least popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
Figure 149: Most popular how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 150: Next most popular how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 151: Other how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
- Airtours Holidays
- AMR Corporation (American Airlines)
- Arsenal Football Club
- British Airways Plc
- Co-operative Group
- Competition Commission
- Deutsche Bahn
- Eurostar UK Ltd
- Expedia Inc.
- First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
- Groupon, Inc.
- Hayes & Jarvis (Travel) Ltd
- Hotwire
- Iberia, Líneas Aéreas de España SA
- InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
- MyTravel Group plc
- P&O Ferries
- Ryanair Holdings plc
- Teletext Holidays
- Thomas Cook Airlines
- Thomas Cook Group PLC
- Thomson Holidays
- Travel Republic
- TripAdvisor LLC
- TUI Travel PLC
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