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Holiday Shopping - US - June 2010

Holidays are prime occasions for giving gifts, decorating and entertaining with food and beverage. For retailers, the $496.6 billion annual holiday market is a key source of revenue. But, the ongoing recession had a major impact on retailers and consumer spending throughout 2009. Whether they sought wool sweaters or Halloween party treats, shoppers cut gift and grocery lists and sought out lower priced channels like mass retailers and dollar stores. Many retailers, particularly upscale chains, were forced to cut inventory, jobs and other costs to stay solvent. For the fourth quarter of 2009, the majority of retailers emphasized value and saving money. But with six months and three holidays to go still on the 2010 calendar (at the time of this report writing), the retailer’s glass at this point, is half full.

To explain performance and growing trends in the market, Mintel’s review of the holiday shopping segment includes:

  • Effective strategies retailers have used to lure recession-weary shoppers
  • A holiday-by-holiday analysis of what drives consumer demand
  • Key areas of spending and participation for each holiday
  • A look at retail promotions involving traditional and digital media
  • Deep profiles of consumer behavior, including the influence of age, income, employment status and ethnicity on holiday spending

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • Market size and forecast
                          • Leading holiday retailers
                            • Highlights of this year’s holiday shopping consumer survey
                              • Top gifting holidays
                                • Top card holidays
                                  • Top party holidays
                                    • Top holidays for food and drink
                                      • Holiday shopping habits and spending patterns
                                        • Holiday attitudes
                                          • Purchase locations
                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                            • Thinner wallets
                                              • Retail response
                                                • Electronic retailing
                                                • Inspire Insights

                                                    • Improving the online Christmas shopping experience
                                                      • What we’ve seen
                                                        • Profiling (the good kind)
                                                          • A changing society
                                                            • Where are the Joneses?
                                                              • What it means for future holiday spend
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Spending on specific holidays
                                                                  • Sales and forecast of market
                                                                    • Figure 1: Total anticipated U.S. retail sales of holiday products, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                    • Figure 2: Total anticipated U.S. retail sales of holiday products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                                    • Figure 3: Anticipated total holiday expenditures, 2005-10
                                                                    • Figure 4: Anticipated expenditures by holiday, 2009 versus 2007
                                                                  • Winter holiday sales as a proportion of annual industry sales
                                                                    • Figure 5: Total U.S. winter holiday season anticipated shopping expenditures, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                    • Figure 6: Total U.S. winter holiday season anticipated shopping expenditures, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                                    • Figure 7: Total U.S. winter holiday retail sales compared to annual retail industry sales, 2005-09
                                                                  • Holiday participation
                                                                    • Figure 8: Holiday participation, March 2010
                                                                • Segment Performance—Holiday Spending by Occasion

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Holidays covered
                                                                      • New Year’s
                                                                        • Valentine’s Day
                                                                            • Figure 9: Anticipated Valentine’s day spending, 2005-10
                                                                            • Figure 10: Types of gifts purchased for Valentine’s Day, 2008-10
                                                                            • Figure 11: Spending on different recipients for Valentine’s Day, 2007-09
                                                                          • St. Patrick’s Day
                                                                            • Figure 12: Average per-person expenditure, aggregate expenditure for St. Patrick’s Day, 2006-10
                                                                          • Easter
                                                                              • Figure 13: Average per person expenditure for Easter, 2005-10
                                                                              • Figure 14: Anticipated Easter expenditures, by category, March 2010
                                                                            • Mother’s Day
                                                                                • Figure 15: Average per-person expenditure for Mother’s Day, 2005-10
                                                                                • Figure 16: Ways Mother’s Day is celebrated
                                                                              • Memorial Day, Independence Day and Labor Day
                                                                                • Travel
                                                                                  • Seasonal products
                                                                                    • Father’s Day
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Anticipated Father’s day expenditures, 2004-09
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Anticipated Father's Day expenditures, by category, 2010
                                                                                    • Halloween
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Anticipated Halloween expenditures, 2004-09
                                                                                      • Figure 20: Anticipated Halloween expenditures, 2010
                                                                                    • Thanksgiving
                                                                                        • Figure 21: Top turkey processors in the U.S.
                                                                                      • Christmas
                                                                                          • Figure 22: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, by recipient, 2009
                                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                                        • No jobs, no money
                                                                                          • Consumer spending
                                                                                            • The long road back
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population 16 years and over, past decade
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Top 10 states for housing foreclosures, 2009
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
                                                                                          • Leading Holiday Retailers

                                                                                            • Overview
                                                                                              • Walmart
                                                                                                • Target
                                                                                                  • J.Crew
                                                                                                    • Nordstrom
                                                                                                      • Best Buy
                                                                                                        • Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
                                                                                                          • Online retailing
                                                                                                            • Figure 26: What percentage of your holiday shopping do you plan to do online?
                                                                                                        • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                            • Television
                                                                                                              • Coupons and FSIs
                                                                                                                • In-store and mobile
                                                                                                                  • Social networking
                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Which of the following websites do you use regularly?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: TV advertising expenditures, top 10 retail spenders, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                  • Best Buy
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Endless Black Friday Inventory
                                                                                                                  • Kmart
                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: The impossible dream
                                                                                                                  • Kohl’s
                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Free money
                                                                                                                  • Macy’s
                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: The power of faith
                                                                                                                  • T.J. Maxx
                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Reduced circumstances
                                                                                                                  • Target
                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: A “cheap Chic” date
                                                                                                                  • Walmart
                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: We’ll make prices even lower
                                                                                                                • Top Gifting Holidays

                                                                                                                  • Christmas still rules the roost
                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Bought gifts, by gender and holiday, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Bought gifts, by holiday and household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Marriage matters
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Bought gifts, by holiday, marital status and presence of children, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Unemployed still buy gifts
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Bought gifts, by holiday and employment status, March 2010
                                                                                                                • Top Card Holidays

                                                                                                                  • Send your best
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Card sending occasions, 2009
                                                                                                                  • Boomers stick to tradition
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Purchased a card, by holiday and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Purchased a card, by holiday and household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                • Hosting the Holiday Party

                                                                                                                  • Who’s cooking?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Q3 and Q4 Supermarket performance, by chain
                                                                                                                  • Entertaining for New Year’s Eve
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Hosted a party/dinner, by holiday and gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • It’s all about the costume
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Hosted a party/dinner, by holiday and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Hosted a party/dinner, by holiday and household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                • Buying Food/Drink

                                                                                                                  • Holiday guests
                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Purchased special food/drink, by holiday and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                • Holiday Shopping Habits

                                                                                                                  • Task completion vs. socialization
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Shopping with others, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Shopping in comfort
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Shopping with others, by marital status, March 2010
                                                                                                                • Spending

                                                                                                                  • Paring down the gift list
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Economic impact on holiday spending habits, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Economic impact on holiday spending habits, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Everyone is spending less
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Economic impact on holiday spending habits, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Economic impact on holiday spending habits, by employment, March 2010
                                                                                                                • How Early Does Winter Holiday Shopping Start?

                                                                                                                  • Getting a jump on the holiday rush
                                                                                                                    • Black Friday
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: The start of the holiday season, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: The start of the holiday season, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Holiday Attitudes and Expectations

                                                                                                                    • It’s all about the family
                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Attitudes towards holiday expectations, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • A gift for you and a gift for me
                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Attitudes towards holiday expectations, by holiday and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Online or in person?
                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Attitudes towards holiday expectations, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Purchase Locations

                                                                                                                    • Shoppers flock to mass merchants
                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Purchase locations, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Frugality appeals to everyone
                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Purchase locations, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Purchase locations, by presence of children in the household, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • What Could Get Them to Shop Elsewhere?

                                                                                                                    • The search for deep discounts and giveaways
                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Factors that could change holiday shopping choices, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Charity counts during the holidays
                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Factors that could change holiday shopping choices, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                  • Evoking Warm Holiday Feelings

                                                                                                                    • Sentiment = sales
                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Evoking warm holiday feelings, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Music matters
                                                                                                                      • Time with the extended family
                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Evoking warm holiday feelings, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                    • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                      • Hispanics over-index for most holidays
                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Bought gifts, by race/Hispanic origin and holiday, March 2010
                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Purchased a card, by holiday by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Family gatherings
                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Hosted a party/dinner, by holiday by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Holiday spirits
                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Purchased special food/drink, by holiday by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Holiday spending habits, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                        • Warehouse shopping popular
                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Purchase locations, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Factors that could change holiday shopping choices, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                          • Chillers
                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                  • Tuners
                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                          • Warmers
                                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Holiday shopping clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Shopping with others, by holiday shopping clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Economic impact on holiday spending habits, by holiday shopping clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Attitudes towards holiday expectations, by holiday shopping clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Activities that promote warm holiday feelings, by holiday shopping clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Holiday shopping clusters, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Holiday shopping clusters, by age group, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Holiday shopping clusters, by household income group, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Holiday shopping clusters, by race, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Holiday shopping clusters, by Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Stores shopped, by area, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Evoking warm holiday feelings, by marital status, March 2010

                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                    • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                    • Home Depot (USA)
                                                                                                                                                    • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                    • Macy's, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                    • National Confectioners Association
                                                                                                                                                    • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                                    • National Turkey Federation (The)
                                                                                                                                                    • Nordstrom
                                                                                                                                                    • Perdue Farms Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                    • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                    • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                                    • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                    • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                    • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                    Holiday Shopping - US - June 2010

                                                                                                                                                    US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)